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How accurate have you found fangraph's projections to be?

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How accurate have you found fangraph's projections to be?

Postby vykeengfan » Tue May 17, 2011 11:59 pm

What are your thoughts as to the accuracy of fangraph's Zips(RoS)?
I plugged them into my league's scoring system, and got a couple of surprises.
Have you used these projections, and what has your experience been?

Thanks for sharing...
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Re: How accurate have you found fangraph's projections to be

Postby vykeengfan » Wed May 18, 2011 1:59 pm

no one has used the zips projections on fangraphs?
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Re: How accurate have you found fangraph's projections to be

Postby jcook3127 » Wed May 18, 2011 6:34 pm

In my experience, I don't particularly like them.

I wish I had more evidence for you, but this is all just based off the very little bit that I've observed with it.

---------------------

Just logically though...if the OVERALL projections are average..it means they are probably only 65% accurate...and then you have the Rest of Season projections that try to get you to their overall projections...by this point the margin for error is ridiculously high and I think it's a waste of time.
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
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Re: How accurate have you found fangraph's projections to be

Postby cs3 » Wed May 18, 2011 10:27 pm

I find that they are much better for comaparing players against one another than they are for predicting counting totals.

but thats how i feel about all projection systems.
they are generally way off in regards to playing time and ABs because they try factor in injuries, which makes no sense.
imo stat projections would be more valuable if they just assumed regular playing time and then did a separate projection for # of AB's or % likelihood of missing X amount of time due to injury.
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Re: How accurate have you found fangraph's projections to be

Postby Tex » Wed May 18, 2011 11:08 pm

I typically find any mathematical projections to be pretty worthless. They're too "safe" by being weighted toward averages and comparing similar players. Have any of them ever projected a bust, or just a slight regression to the mean?
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Re: How accurate have you found fangraph's projections to be

Postby kab21 » Thu May 19, 2011 12:01 am

I don't look at projections much. I look at career stats and especially the peripherals. For hitters I pay attention to BAPIP, K rate and BB rate to get an idea if anything other than their career BA should be expected. And I look at FB rate and trends in HR/FB% for HR's. For pitchers I look at the K%, BB% and GB% and look for career trends. But for the most part you look at their career stats and either adjust a little upward for younger players or a little downward for older players unless you see an interesting trend in the numbers. I might look at the rate stats in the ZiPS projections (or any projection) but the quantity stats are meaningless imo since they are trying to mathematically predict who is going to get injured and for how long and they also don't know who is going to lose/gain PT based on different roster constructions.
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Re: How accurate have you found fangraph's projections to be

Postby Skin Blues » Thu May 19, 2011 10:19 am

Tex wrote:I typically find any mathematical projections to be pretty worthless. They're too "safe" by being weighted toward averages and comparing similar players. Have any of them ever projected a bust, or just a slight regression to the mean?

Have you found any projection maker that can accurately predict busts? I guarantee if you found a place that had accurate projections for what Hanley Ramirez is doing right now, it would be absolutely terrible for the other 99.9% of players. The point isn't to predict outliers, obviously.
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Re: How accurate have you found fangraph's projections to be

Postby Tex » Thu May 19, 2011 5:25 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
Tex wrote:I typically find any mathematical projections to be pretty worthless. They're too "safe" by being weighted toward averages and comparing similar players. Have any of them ever projected a bust, or just a slight regression to the mean?

Have you found any projection maker that can accurately predict busts? I guarantee if you found a place that had accurate projections for what Hanley Ramirez is doing right now, it would be absolutely terrible for the other 99.9% of players. The point isn't to predict outliers, obviously.


That's my point. I don't see what people find so fascinating about projections when they don't tell you anything new. I'd rather see someone try to mathematically predict the booms/busts. That's at least entertaining and no more worthless than the current projections out there.
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Re: How accurate have you found fangraph's projections to be

Postby kab21 » Thu May 19, 2011 6:59 pm

Tex wrote:That's my point. I don't see what people find so fascinating about projections when they don't tell you anything new. I'd rather see someone try to mathematically predict the booms/busts. That's at least entertaining and no more worthless than the current projections out there.


that's razzball.com
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Re: How accurate have you found fangraph's projections to be

Postby Ender » Mon May 23, 2011 10:02 pm

Projections are probably the best foundation you can start with while making your draft sheet. You just can't be a slave to the projections, you have to adjust them using your own thoughts as well.

I'm not a huge fan of ZiPs but they aren't terrible or anything.
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