Tex wrote:I typically find any mathematical projections to be pretty worthless. They're too "safe" by being weighted toward averages and comparing similar players. Have any of them ever projected a bust, or just a slight regression to the mean?

Have you found any projection maker that can accurately predict busts? I guarantee if you found a place that had accurate projections for what Hanley Ramirez is doing right now, it would be absolutely terrible for the other 99.9% of players. The point isn't to predict outliers, obviously.