cs3 wrote:seems like the consensus is Hudson is best and Sanchez is worst, but the other 3 guys are all over the place, which probably means it doesnt make a huge difference which one ends up on my team
I would find a way to get D Hudson and Norris.
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I agree with you guys on Hudson but Sanchez has been getting some bad luck in my opinion. As a former Bailey and Sanchez owner I liked the consistency of Sanchez over the talent/potential of Bailey(only 19 innings). Plus Sanchez plays in a pitchers park and Bailey plays in a hitters park.
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1. Daniel Hudson 2. Bud Norris 3. Anibal Sanchez 4. Homer Bailey
I dont want to go all sabermetric on you, but here is why I feel this way.
Hudson has a 64.4% strand rate vs a career in the minors/mlb of 75.5% and his FIP ERA this year is 2.62 (projected) vs his actual 4.41. (I know he pitched today but fangraphs isnt updated yet.) This shows that he's having some bad luck and expected to improve off his already solid numbers in terms of having a .329 BABIP against this season so far. (League average is .280 to .300)
Norris is a strikeout machine w/ a career k/9 of 9.44 and has bumped it up to 10.8 this year. his BABIP against is a little high as well with it being .306 and his HR/FB rate is higher than expected at 13.7% his home park doesnt help this but it will probably go back to around the league norm of 10%. He's pitching much better this year due to his increased control 3.06 BB/9 this year vs a career 4.13 BB/9. So if he can continue to cut down on the walks and strand runners at the rate he's going 76% is just slighty above average (72% is average) you should continue to get solid stats out of him. That and if his manager stops trotting him out there after 100 pitches (his last start was a gem until he was asked to pitch the next top of the inning with a pitch count of 95)
Sanchez has bumped up his k/9 this year to 9.42 vs a career average of 7.11 and is stranding runners at 78%. If those numbers come back to normal (along with his low HR/FB ratio of 8.5%) you can expect a little regression from him. He plays in a cavernous stadium though so that might be the standard for him in the long run. I'm just not buying his increased K/9 rate really. He hasnt had that high of a number since AA in 2006.
Bailey has such a small sample size this year that it's tough to get a read on him. His strand rate this year is high at 79.6% and his BABIP against is low at .259. The primary reason for his success early this year can be attributed to his decreased walk rate at just 1.89 per 9 vs a career average in the minors and mlb of 3.93. His k/9 ratio is just above his career average so I think that will continue. He's also got a very low HR/FB rate of 4.5%. Considering where his home park is know for being hitter friendly, he's the one I'd stay away from the most.