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why do we rush to pick up prospects..

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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby AHF » Fri May 13, 2011 5:41 pm

Most of my auction keeper league team is guys that I got as rookies either through the draft or from rushing to pick them up and have signed long-term:

Buster Posey
Joey Votto
Dustin Pedroia
Ryan Zimmerman
Pedro Alvarez (not looking quite as nice)
Justin Upton
Jay Bruce
Jason Heyward
Andrew McCutchens

Some guys that I took a shot on ended up busting and I didn't sign them long-term like Justin Smoak last year. Some have ended up much more mediocre than I hoped, like Adam Jones.

Having a guy like Votto at $5, $7, $12, and $17 over the last 4 years has been fantastic. I wish I had signed him longer. If Pedro Alvarez goes the way of Chris Davis, I will end up eating some salary on that one but I generally go for the guys that are at the top of the scouting lists and if they perform then I take the gamble on them.

Guys like Jaime Garcia, Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchens, etc. that I have picked up mid-season have been big helps down the stretch.

I am hoping Hosmer, Mitch Moreland and Desmond Jennings give me a base of talent for next year.

Part of it is also that I chasing the next breakout star. (I am itching to add Brandon Belt to the roster right now...)
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby CBMGreatOne » Sat May 14, 2011 12:07 pm

AHF wrote:Guys like Jaime Garcia, Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchens, etc. that I have picked up mid-season have been big helps down the stretch.


There's more than one Andrew McCutchen?!?!? Shoot, I have to go check my waiver wire and see if the other one is still available. :-D

In all seriousness, I sort of hope that the title of this thread isn't serious. We pick up these top prospects because they have a chance at making a big impact in spite of the fact that they are free agents in our fantasy leagues until sometime into the season. I would have to absolutely wrack my brain to remember all of the different names that I have added after their callups from AAA to help me win league championships. There are at least a few every year and I want to be the guy to get them, keeper or no.
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby Ender » Sat May 14, 2011 12:14 pm

Picking up prospects loses teams their seasons as well sometimes, it does go both ways. Usually you have a few dead roster spots for either hot guys who weren't good in the past, setup guys who might become closers or young guys who aren't proven. A lot of times people will dump a player who should be playing to pick up the next big thing and some of those times that next big thing doesn't do much.
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby TheGinner » Sat May 14, 2011 12:21 pm

I got a load of heckle from my leaguemates when I chose Timmy as a keeper after his hyped rookie callup/mediocre year.

Needless to say I haven't had to worry about pitching in that league for quite a few years now ;-D
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby CBMGreatOne » Sat May 14, 2011 12:23 pm

Ender wrote:Picking up prospects loses teams their seasons as well sometimes, it does go both ways. Usually you have a few dead roster spots for either hot guys who weren't good in the past, setup guys who might become closers or young guys who aren't proven. A lot of times people will dump a player who should be playing to pick up the next big thing and some of those times that next big thing doesn't do much.


You always have to be careful when dropping a player. Literally any player can outproduce expectations. If we're discussing the perils of picking up top prospects in this regard, we may as well discuss the perils of making any add/drop transaction. I suppose in 10 or even 12 team mixed leagues with limited bench space, any given drop is likely to be a player with some potential to break out (except guys who just suffered a serious injury of course), but in leagues larger than 12 teams, or with deeper rosters, a lot of the players carried on any given roster are replacement level stopgaps that are only being used because there is literally nothing better available at a given time.

Let's just say your last bench player in your 12 team deep bench mixed league is Johnny Damon... In this situation, if I had read that Hosmer had just been called up to the majors and he was available in my league, I'm jumping on that all day long. Sure Damon has been a reasonably productive power/speed guy and a decent enough Monday/Thursday/DNP fill in, but at 37 years old, he isn't likely to be the difference between winning or losing a league in anything like the way that Hosmer might be. And suppose someone else adds Damon and Hosmer flames out to the point where he is sent back down to AAA. No sweat. I'll just add Cody Ross and have somebody who will approximate Damon's production.

Moral of the story, you have to be careful who you drop, but that doesn't mean you should scoff at top prospects.
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby kab21 » Sat May 14, 2011 7:29 pm

I'm the guy in the league that is constantly picking up prospects and other potential young breakout players and then trading them while their value is relatively high. Even when the moves backfire you can still win. During Longoria's rookie season I traded Longoria/JUpton/Cueto for Johan Santana and I also traded Gallardo (just before he had an injury setback and missed the season)/Broxton/2 others for Jose Reyes in a 12tm 9 keeper league. Out of all of the players Longoria was the only one that deserved keeper status the following year and I rode Johan and Reyes to the championship. Sure I would like to have Longoria but I play for this year since I find prospects replaceable. And I can't even tell you how many elite/very good prospects that I've traded away in my 24 tm league. One in particular that I remember was trading Bills/JMontero/Drabek for Votto/Holland before Votto broke out last year. Another was trading Simon Castro for Bobby Abreu early last year. both of these got thumbs down by most forum members. But we're still waiting for the prospects to get playing time. And despite this I still have one of the better farm systems.
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby Ender » Mon May 16, 2011 10:45 pm

Let's just say your last bench player in your 12 team deep bench mixed league is Johnny Damon... In this situation, if I had read that Hosmer had just been called up to the majors and he was available in my league, I'm jumping on that all day long


Sure, but how about the guy who jumped to grab Jerry Sands and dropped Damon, that isn't working out so well. Prospects are incredibly volatile and people need to realize this when they pick them up. They can't be dropping solid reliable commodities for any old prospect out there and they still do a lot of the time.
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby CBMGreatOne » Tue May 17, 2011 12:18 am

Ender wrote:
Let's just say your last bench player in your 12 team deep bench mixed league is Johnny Damon... In this situation, if I had read that Hosmer had just been called up to the majors and he was available in my league, I'm jumping on that all day long


Sure, but how about the guy who jumped to grab Jerry Sands and dropped Damon, that isn't working out so well. Prospects are incredibly volatile and people need to realize this when they pick them up. They can't be dropping solid reliable commodities for any old prospect out there and they still do a lot of the time.


Sure, but I raced to the wire for Hosmer in a 12 team mixed, whereas I didn't even bother to add Sands in my NL Only league. When you have a guy who is considered the #1 prospect in all of minor league baseball by a good number of experts called up, you go get him. Jerry Sands was just a decent prospect. Like I said, any add/drop is dangerous.
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