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why do we rush to pick up prospects..

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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby chargerss24 » Wed May 11, 2011 10:41 pm

kab21 wrote:I'll disagree with some of you about redraft leagues. It really depends on the depth of the league and the size of the bench.


True. Didn't think about that. I don't play anything larger than a 12 teamer and stick with mixed leagues.
C-Doumit, Salty
1B- Fielder
2B-Pedroia
SS-Reyes
3B-Longoria
CI- Morneau
MI- Kipnis
OF- Myers Jennings Heyward
U- Ellsbury, B. Upton, Bruce

SP-Price Fernandez Miller Wheeler, Kluber
RP-Grilli, Farquhar, Crow, Veras
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby MaudDib » Wed May 11, 2011 11:02 pm

This is something I have seen become bigger over the past 10 years. It seems since Pujols and Ichiro came around, prospects have become the fad. Then whatever prospect you grabbed, doesn't quite pan out out in his first year and he becomes an after thought. I posted a column last year about this topic from a post about someone keeping Heyward over Price. Heyward had a good year but Price was the better player in the end and it was all about how far Price had fallen because of one disappointing year.

I think a lot of it comes down to people wanting to be the guy who grabs a no name player that becomes a star. It makes you feel like you knew something no one else did even though most people know about Longoria and Braun.

Pujols - 37 hr's, 112 runs, 130 RBI, 1.013 OPS
Hanley - 17 hr, 51 SB, .833 ops,
Tulo - 24 hr, .838 OPS,
Longoria - 122 games, 27 hr's, 85 rbi, .874 OPS
Wright - 69 games, 14 hr's, 6 sb, .857 ops
Votto - 151 games. 24 hr, 7 sb, .874 ops
Ryan Braun - 113 games, 34 hr, 15 sb, 1.004 ops
Prince Fielder - 28 hrs, .830 ops
Ryan Howard - 88 games, 22 hrs, 63 rbi, .923 ops
josh Hamilton - 90 games, 19 hr's, .922 ops

Looking over the names you mentioned, a lot of them had down years between their rookie year and a breakout year where they would have been thought of as keepers in leagues with 5 or less keepers.

Votto - 2009 was a nice year but 25 HR, 80 RBI/R wouldn't have been kept unless you were a deeper league. 1B was so deep that he would have been available in a lot of keeper drafts.

Tulo - 2008 was a bad year. 8 HR in a 101 games wouldn't be a keeper. Not even a question here.

Fielder - Another 28 HR with 80 RBI/R guy that probably wouldn't be kept.

Hamilton - 2009 10 HR and 54 RBI is not a keeper. Injury history and just looked bad. This guy was going later in drafts with few people expecting him to regain his old form.

So just because they had a good rookie year doesn't mean that it will translate immediately.
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby Ender » Wed May 11, 2011 11:18 pm

Looking over the names you mentioned, a lot of them had down years between their rookie year and a breakout year where they would have been thought of as keepers in leagues with 5 or less keepers.

Votto - 2009 was a nice year but 25 HR, 80 RBI/R wouldn't have been kept unless you were a deeper league. 1B was so deep that he would have been available in a lot of keeper drafts.

Tulo - 2008 was a bad year. 8 HR in a 101 games wouldn't be a keeper. Not even a question here.

Fielder - Another 28 HR with 80 RBI/R guy that probably wouldn't be kept.

Hamilton - 2009 10 HR and 54 RBI is not a keeper. Injury history and just looked bad. This guy was going later in drafts with few people expecting him to regain his old form.

So just because they had a good rookie year doesn't mean that it will translate immediately.


I would have kept Votto and Fielder for sure, both of them were no doubter type talents.
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Thu May 12, 2011 12:00 am

I wholeheartedly disagree with the idea of picking up guys with the intent of trading them. The problem is that in order for you to trade them, someone else has to want them enough to give you something of value that you want. Then you actually have to agree on a trade with that guy. That's not necessarily an easy thing to do. If a prospect actually adds value to your team, grab 'em. But don't grab a guy aiming to trade, IMO....
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby wrveres » Thu May 12, 2011 3:37 am

cs3 wrote:how do you guys value prospects like Hosmer in keeper leagues?
its difficult for me to put a price price on him because we have no idea yet how well he will adjust, and no idea what his ADP next yr would be if hes available in the draft... if you were to trade him today for a future draft pick, whats the latest round pick youd accept?

For somebody like Hosmer, you need to be patient. give him 100 Ab's, and see what you got. If he explodes, then you trade him for similar proven talent.
if i was trading for a pick, i wouldn't, but if i had too, i'd take nothing less than a 1st round pick. Guys a proven talent. in about three years he will be in the top 5 1B discussion. you have no idea what that pick is going to give you. hell you probably won't even be in the league anymore once that pick materializes.
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby wrveres » Thu May 12, 2011 3:41 am

kab21 wrote:
striderex wrote:and Hosmer hits a hr !+)
A good example. Kubel also hit a hr today. And he has been really hot at the plate this year (I think the only Twin with this claim).
there hasn't been a lot of talk about that ballpark, and suppressing HRs, but i get the feeling it does. any insight?
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby AussieDodger » Thu May 12, 2011 3:52 am

why do we rush to pick up prospects..


3 reasons:

1. Cost. In a lot of leagues, all the latest dreamboat prospect will cost you is waiver priority or a roster spot.

2. Upside. Why own a Markakis (snore) or John Danks, when prospects like Dom. Brown or Julio Teheran could out-produce them immediately?

3. Excitement of the unknown. "Could" is more exciting then "Will".
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby cs3 » Thu May 12, 2011 3:54 am

wrveres wrote:
cs3 wrote:how do you guys value prospects like Hosmer in keeper leagues?
its difficult for me to put a price price on him because we have no idea yet how well he will adjust, and no idea what his ADP next yr would be if hes available in the draft... if you were to trade him today for a future draft pick, whats the latest round pick youd accept?

For somebody like Hosmer, you need to be patient. give him 100 Ab's, and see what you got. If he explodes, then you trade him for similar proven talent.
if i was trading for a pick, i wouldn't, but if i had too, i'd take nothing less than a 1st round pick. Guys a proven talent. in about three years he will be in the top 5 1B discussion. you have no idea what that pick is going to give you. hell you probably won't even be in the league anymore once that pick materializes.

i agree that its probably best to wait at least a month for him to give us a glimpse of what he can do.

however im not sure we understand each other regarding the draft pick trade value.
i shouldnt have said "future" draft pick. i meant a pick in next years draft.

getting back a 1st rd pick isnt very realistic (at least in my league) because it means that next year the guy who traded it wont get to keep the player he picked in the first round of this years draft.
which means that player will be available for ME to draft with one of my two 1st round picks (my other 1st round pick would likely be used to keep a player). which means i would get a proven 1st round talent.
so i will most definitely be around when the pick materializes.
does that change your opinion any or am i still not making any sense?
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby kab21 » Thu May 12, 2011 3:59 am

wrveres wrote:there hasn't been a lot of talk about that ballpark, and suppressing HRs, but i get the feeling it does. any insight?
The Twins had huge home/road splits last year and there is talk about how difficult it is to hit HR's to left and center. But one year of data really isn't enough to make a decision. 2009 Citi had similar home/road differential splits. And in 2010 there was very little home/road split differential. The Twins problem this year is injuries and in general bad everything everywhere.
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Re: why do we rush to pick up prospects..

Postby wrveres » Thu May 12, 2011 4:17 am

kab21 wrote:
wrveres wrote:there hasn't been a lot of talk about that ballpark, and suppressing HRs, but i get the feeling it does. any insight?
The Twins had huge home/road splits last year and there is talk about how difficult it is to hit HR's to left and center. But one year of data really isn't enough to make a decision. 2009 Citi had similar home/road differential splits. And in 2010 there was very little home/road split differential. The Twins problem this year is injuries and in general bad everything everywhere.
i agree one year is too early to judge the park. i just remember seeing the numbers this winter, and being shocked. I also read this spring where Morneau was complaining about them, asking for the fences to be moved in. maybe it was nothing.
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