I was having a discussion with another league mate who thought it was absolutely rediculous that I spent $30 FAB dollars to pick up Hosmer. I said because if he breaks out, and I didn't get him, I will never have a chance to own him. (12-team league, keep 4).
his response was, "that's rediculous. it's only on rare occasions that players are good enough to be keepers in their rookie year." I said, "yeah, but when you do strike gold, which is about one player per year, you get a keeper for life." he said, "theres no way it's as high as one player per year." I started naming players. and looking up their rookie year stats.
my thoughts are that these players put up numbers good enough in their rookie year that their owner very well could have recognized what they had on their hands and kept them in a 12-team - 4 keeper league, thus never giving anyone else in the league a chance to own them.
this is a large majority of the top 15 hitters right now. notable exceptions being - Miggy, A-gonz, crawford, bautista, cargo..
also, it's hard to guess which ones are gonna break out. for every Ryan Braun there is a Delmon Young.. but you've got to get them immediately when they do.
i don't know, it was kind of a rambling discussion and I am not entirely sure of the point.. but it seemed interesting how good the elite players in the league tend to be immediately.. though i would bring it here to see if anyone had any further thoughts..
I could see the argument against going full bore for Hosmer simply due to his position and it isn't real likely he is a Top 50 guy heading into next season (depending on the rest of your team he might even have to be considered Top 25 in order to keep). For leagues that have more available keeper slots he is easily worth the risk and one of the few rookies that is worth blowing the majority of your budget on.
what you could do is go back through your leagues' drafts for the past few years and see if any guys were drafted in the first 4 years after being called up the previous year. i have to think it would happen rarely. but on the other hand im thinking of heyward this year...was he a top 4 round pick?
but for my liking im not going to worry about it too much even if it is once a year. just too uncommon for me to spend too much on. much more common are the guys who have been around a couple years and break out....those are the guys that really win you championships
i went through a 14 teamer's draft from last year...no second year guys
Keeper leagues are a whole different ball of wax depending on settings but there are reasons in redraft leagues to as well. If you are in a competitive deep league, often times, prospects are the only players who are unowned that have a chance at full time at bats and even mild production. For instance, I'm in a 15 team mixed league that uses a CI, MI and 5 OF, as you'd guess, the waiver wire is bare, thus when prospect is promoted, especially a blue chip prospect, it is often times worth spending the bulk of you FAAB dollars on them simply because they have a pulse and getting at bats usually equals counting stats. In shallow leagues there is value as well, the shallower the league, the greater the talent of the replacement level player, thus gambling on a breakout becomes worth it. The leagues that make the least sense to go overboard in, at least in my opinion, are the leagues that fall somewhere in between. Sure, you may get a breakout, but if you cut an already proven useful player for a prospect, you don't have the luxury of just adding a solid replacement level player should that prospect fall on their face.
how do you guys value prospects like Hosmer in keeper leagues? its difficult for me to put a price price on him because we have no idea yet how well he will adjust, and no idea what his ADP next yr would be if hes available in the draft... if you were to trade him today for a future draft pick, whats the latest round pick youd accept?
Last edited by cs3 on Wed May 11, 2011 5:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.