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Thoughts on Curtis Granderson

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Re: Thoughts on Curtis Granderson

Postby dannahann » Thu May 26, 2011 10:52 am

bleach168 wrote:When the median batting average is .250 and the median fantasy team's batting average is .265, Granderson is no longer a liability in that category.


Exactly. A 270 hitter doesn't hurt a club like in the recent past and a decent case could be made that Grandy is becoming much less a risk to post a real low average in the future. I'll conceed that there is still some small sample size early season concerns with these numbers but he really seems to be figuring out lefties, even tough lefties.
Coming into this season left handed pitching killed him (0.625 OPS in 777 AB vs LHP compared to 0.899 in 1169 AB vs RHP). So far this season (albeit only 54 AB) his OPS vs LHP is 1.171.
He started making strides vs LHP late in 2010 and posted a 0.647 OPS in 158 AB last year. In 2009 his OPS vs lefties was truely debilitating 0.484 in 180 AB. Point is if he can plug the huge hole in his game vs lefties going forward he might even become a consensus top 5-10 fantasy OF for the next few years. You can't sell him for that now. But if you aren't averse to taking small gambles, it might be wise to buy him for much less right now, if you have designs on a 2011 crown or are in a keeper.
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Re: Thoughts on Curtis Granderson

Postby zomberg » Thu May 26, 2011 12:29 pm

dannahann wrote:
bleach168 wrote:When the median batting average is .250 and the median fantasy team's batting average is .265, Granderson is no longer a liability in that category.


I'll conceed that there is still some small sample size early season concerns with these numbers but he really seems to be figuring out lefties, even tough lefties.
Coming into this season left handed pitching killed him (0.625 OPS in 777 AB vs LHP compared to 0.899 in 1169 AB vs RHP). So far this season (albeit only 54 AB) his OPS vs LHP is 1.171.
He started making strides vs LHP late in 2010 and posted a 0.647 OPS in 158 AB last year. In 2009 his OPS vs lefties was truely debilitating 0.484 in 180 AB. Point is if he can plug the huge hole in his game vs lefties going forward he might even become a consensus top 5-10 fantasy OF for the next few years. You can't sell him for that now. But if you aren't averse to taking small gambles, it might be wise to buy him for much less right now, if you have designs on a 2011 crown or are in a keeper.


It's not an Adam Dunn-esque, AVG, but it still hurts when he gets up to the plate 550+ times. No denying you'll need to defend BA with other players. (Money teams tend to hit .275-.280)

But I think the 40 HR power is legit. You cannot expect him to hit .290, but 40-10 is almost a lock at this point. And that has a ton of value. Add that to the fact that he won't be murdered by lefties in the late innings of games, and he probably already is a top 15 OF.

Clearly, if you cannot obtain Tommy Hanson for him in your league, they haven't bought the hype. So you need to hang onto him until they begin to grovel towards you. He won't slow down power wise, not in Yankee Stadium. And it's been nearly four months of beating lefties...
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Re: Thoughts on Curtis Granderson

Postby Gags Sports » Thu May 26, 2011 1:06 pm

bleach168 wrote:When the median batting average is .250 and the median fantasy team's batting average is .265, Granderson is no longer a liability in that category.


Sorry, but I disagree with this slightly.

(Note: I am going to use average instead of median, but the results should not differ much)

In 2010, the MLB batting average was .257. While not a perfect fantasy comparison, I took the average batting average from my 12 team (start 14 offensive players) league from last year. All teams averaged .270.

Season to date in 2011, the MLB batting average is .250. The average from my same 12 team league so far this year is .259.

Curtis Granderson's career average through the end of the 2010 season was .268. So while his 2010 batting average of .247 was definitely a liability in 2010, his overall career rate put him right in line with my league's 2010 fantasy average of .270.

In 2011, MLB real batting averages are down -2.8% (from .257 to .250). In 2011, my 12 team league's fantasy batting averages are down -4.2% (from .270 to .259). Batting averages are down this year compared to last year, no question. However, if we're going to realize that the MLB universe is down -2.8%, then we have to realize Granderson is part of that population and assume that his batting average will drop at the same rate as the rest of the population. I feel that the fundamental flaw in your statement is that you aren't assuming Granderson's average will drop like the rest of MLB. I could be wrong, but the way I read your post, you are saying that the MLB median batting average is dropping, but you're assuming Granderson's will remain constant.

If we assume Granderson's career average coming into this year (.268) drops at the real rate that MLB has dropped (-2.8%), then he would finish somewhere around .260 this year. Then if you compare that to what the average team in my 12 team league is hitting (.260 vs. .259), that makes him an average "batting average" hitter .

However, if we assume Granderson's career average coming into this year (.268) drops at the fantasy rate defined in my league (-4.2%), then he would finish somewhere around .257. Then if you compare that to what the average team in my 12 team league is hitting (.257 vs. .259), that makes him a slightly less than average "batting average" hitter.

I think we can all agree he's not going to hit .280 this year, which is his current rate. But unless this is a career year across the board (and not just in HR's), then I expect him to remain right in line with an average fantasy baseball batting average. In 2009 and 2010 Granderson had fairly low BABIPs leading to those putrid batting averages. His 2011 BABIP is only 10 points higher this year, but his batting average is 32 points higher than the past two years. I think his batting average is due for a freefall that you are not taking into consideration.
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Re: Thoughts on Curtis Granderson

Postby Gags Sports » Thu May 26, 2011 1:08 pm

Gags Sports wrote:
bleach168 wrote:When the median batting average is .250 and the median fantasy team's batting average is .265, Granderson is no longer a liability in that category.


Sorry, but I disagree with this slightly.

(Note: I am going to use average instead of median, but the results should not differ much)

In 2010, the MLB batting average was .257. While not a perfect fantasy comparison, I took the average batting average from my 12 team (start 14 offensive players) league from last year. All teams averaged .270.

Season to date in 2011, the MLB batting average is .250. The average from my same 12 team league so far this year is .259.

Curtis Granderson's career average through the end of the 2010 season was .268. So while his 2010 batting average of .247 was definitely a liability in 2010, his overall career rate put him right in line with my league's 2010 fantasy average of .270.

In 2011, MLB real batting averages are down -2.8% (from .257 to .250). In 2011, my 12 team league's fantasy batting averages are down -4.2% (from .270 to .259). Batting averages are down this year compared to last year, no question. However, if we're going to realize that the MLB universe is down -2.8%, then we have to realize Granderson is part of that population and assume that his batting average will drop at the same rate as the rest of the population. I feel that the fundamental flaw in your statement is that you aren't assuming Granderson's average will drop like the rest of MLB. I could be wrong, but the way I read your post, you are saying that the MLB median batting average is dropping, but you're assuming Granderson's will remain constant.

If we assume Granderson's career average coming into this year (.268) drops at the real rate that MLB has dropped (-2.8%), then he would finish somewhere around .260 this year. Then if you compare that to what the average team in my 12 team league is hitting (.260 vs. .259), that makes him an average "batting average" hitter .

However, if we assume Granderson's career average coming into this year (.268) drops at the fantasy rate defined in my league (-4.2%), then he would finish somewhere around .257. Then if you compare that to what the average team in my 12 team league is hitting (.257 vs. .259), that makes him a slightly less than average "batting average" hitter.

I think we can all agree he's not going to hit .280 this year, which is his current rate. But unless this is a career year across the board (and not just in HR's), then I expect him to remain right in line with an average fantasy baseball batting average. In 2009 and 2010 Granderson had fairly low BABIPs leading to those putrid batting averages. His 2011 BABIP is only 10 points higher this year, but his batting average is 32 points higher than the past two years. I think his batting average is due for a freefall that you are not taking into consideration.


One more point on Grandy.

He currently sports a 20.3% HR/FB%. This is nearly double his career average of 10.4%. His previous full-season high was 11.3% - last year. I'm no advanced ratio genius by any means. In fact, I'm fairly new to them. So I did a little research to put this in perspective and found that Adam Dunn had only one full season of 20.3% or higher. And oh yeah, some guy who plays 1B for the Cardinals has a career average HR/FB% of 15.5% and has never had a rate higher than 18.6% in a full season.

All in all, I'm recommending a sell on Granderson. I know I'm probably in the minority here, and might get blasted, but you don't want to own him when the law of averages take over.
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Re: Thoughts on Curtis Granderson

Postby Skin Blues » Thu May 26, 2011 1:22 pm

Gags Sports wrote:
Gags Sports wrote:
bleach168 wrote:When the median batting average is .250 and the median fantasy team's batting average is .265, Granderson is no longer a liability in that category.


Sorry, but I disagree with this slightly.

(Note: I am going to use average instead of median, but the results should not differ much)

In 2010, the MLB batting average was .257. While not a perfect fantasy comparison, I took the average batting average from my 12 team (start 14 offensive players) league from last year. All teams averaged .270.

Season to date in 2011, the MLB batting average is .250. The average from my same 12 team league so far this year is .259.

Curtis Granderson's career average through the end of the 2010 season was .268. So while his 2010 batting average of .247 was definitely a liability in 2010, his overall career rate put him right in line with my league's 2010 fantasy average of .270.

In 2011, MLB real batting averages are down -2.8% (from .257 to .250). In 2011, my 12 team league's fantasy batting averages are down -4.2% (from .270 to .259). Batting averages are down this year compared to last year, no question. However, if we're going to realize that the MLB universe is down -2.8%, then we have to realize Granderson is part of that population and assume that his batting average will drop at the same rate as the rest of the population. I feel that the fundamental flaw in your statement is that you aren't assuming Granderson's average will drop like the rest of MLB. I could be wrong, but the way I read your post, you are saying that the MLB median batting average is dropping, but you're assuming Granderson's will remain constant.

If we assume Granderson's career average coming into this year (.268) drops at the real rate that MLB has dropped (-2.8%), then he would finish somewhere around .260 this year. Then if you compare that to what the average team in my 12 team league is hitting (.260 vs. .259), that makes him an average "batting average" hitter .

However, if we assume Granderson's career average coming into this year (.268) drops at the fantasy rate defined in my league (-4.2%), then he would finish somewhere around .257. Then if you compare that to what the average team in my 12 team league is hitting (.257 vs. .259), that makes him a slightly less than average "batting average" hitter.

I think we can all agree he's not going to hit .280 this year, which is his current rate. But unless this is a career year across the board (and not just in HR's), then I expect him to remain right in line with an average fantasy baseball batting average. In 2009 and 2010 Granderson had fairly low BABIPs leading to those putrid batting averages. His 2011 BABIP is only 10 points higher this year, but his batting average is 32 points higher than the past two years. I think his batting average is due for a freefall that you are not taking into consideration.


One more point on Grandy.

He currently sports a 20.3% HR/FB%. This is nearly double his career average of 10.4%. His previous full-season high was 11.3% - last year. I'm no advanced ratio genius by any means. In fact, I'm fairly new to them. So I did a little research to put this in perspective and found that Adam Dunn had only one full season of 20.3% or higher. And oh yeah, some guy who plays 1B for the Cardinals has a career average HR/FB% of 15.5% and has never had a rate higher than 18.6% in a full season.

All in all, I'm recommending a sell on Granderson. I know I'm probably in the minority here, and might get blasted, but you don't want to own him when the law of averages take over.

OK so instead of the 55 HR he's on pace for, he only hits 40 if his HR/FB regresses to last season's rate (assuming his FB% doesn't also increase which would mean more HR). I'd settle for that. Also it's not exactly a secret that he'll regress from this current pace so that kind of removes the sell-high aspect.
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Re: Thoughts on Curtis Granderson

Postby zomberg » Thu May 26, 2011 1:48 pm

Gags Sports wrote:I think we can all agree he's not going to hit .280 this year, which is his current rate. But unless this is a career year across the board (and not just in HR's), then I expect him to remain right in line with an average fantasy baseball batting average. In 2009 and 2010 Granderson had fairly low BABIPs leading to those putrid batting averages. His 2011 BABIP is only 10 points higher this year, but his batting average is 32 points higher than the past two years. I think his batting average is due for a freefall that you are not taking into consideration.

One more point on Grandy.

He currently sports a 20.3% HR/FB%. This is nearly double his career average of 10.4%. His previous full-season high was 11.3% - last year. I'm no advanced ratio genius by any means. In fact, I'm fairly new to them. So I did a little research to put this in perspective and found that Adam Dunn had only one full season of 20.3% or higher. And oh yeah, some guy who plays 1B for the Cardinals has a career average HR/FB% of 15.5% and has never had a rate higher than 18.6% in a full season.

All in all, I'm recommending a sell on Granderson. I know I'm probably in the minority here, and might get blasted, but you don't want to own him when the law of averages take over.


1. He probably won't hit the .250-.260 that he used to, only because he had a significant number of at bats versus lefties that were awful. I've watched him play; for now, that swing is definitely working. If you a .265-.270 average into his stats versus lefties, you'll end up with about a .265 average. That isn't a killer.

2. I'm betting that the HR/FB% won't regress to his career stats, in line with the belief that lefties are having problems getting him out. In fact, his HR/FB rate against them is probably around 30+% - he's absolutely killing them right now. (And Fangraphs has his 2010 HR/FB at 14.5%.) I could see a regression to 15% for the rest of the season, but that translates to 40 HR with ease.
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Re: Thoughts on Curtis Granderson

Postby bleach168 » Thu May 26, 2011 5:58 pm

Gags Sports wrote:
However, if we assume Granderson's career average coming into this year (.268) drops at the fantasy rate defined in my league (-4.2%), then he would finish somewhere around .257. Then if you compare that to what the average team in my 12 team league is hitting (.257 vs. .259), that makes him a slightly less than average "batting average" hitter.

I think we can all agree he's not going to hit .280 this year, which is his current rate. But unless this is a career year across the board (and not just in HR's), then I expect him to remain right in line with an average fantasy baseball batting average. In 2009 and 2010 Granderson had fairly low BABIPs leading to those putrid batting averages. His 2011 BABIP is only 10 points higher this year, but his batting average is 32 points higher than the past two years. I think his batting average is due for a freefall that you are not taking into consideration.


If pitching was the difference, you would see an even drop among batting averages across the board; good players would see the same percentage drop as bad players. But you have shown that fantasy averages have declined 4.2% whereas mlb averages have declined 2.8%. This leads me to believe that there is something going on with hitters that is causing this drop in batting averages. Seeing that it is hurting the elite hitters more than regular hitters, leads me to believe it may not really hurt someone like Granderson as much.

If someone can shed some light onto why hitting is down this year, please share!
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Re: Thoughts on Curtis Granderson

Postby bleach168 » Thu May 26, 2011 6:02 pm

zomberg wrote:
Gags Sports wrote:I think we can all agree he's not going to hit .280 this year, which is his current rate. But unless this is a career year across the board (and not just in HR's), then I expect him to remain right in line with an average fantasy baseball batting average. In 2009 and 2010 Granderson had fairly low BABIPs leading to those putrid batting averages. His 2011 BABIP is only 10 points higher this year, but his batting average is 32 points higher than the past two years. I think his batting average is due for a freefall that you are not taking into consideration.

One more point on Grandy.

He currently sports a 20.3% HR/FB%. This is nearly double his career average of 10.4%. His previous full-season high was 11.3% - last year. I'm no advanced ratio genius by any means. In fact, I'm fairly new to them. So I did a little research to put this in perspective and found that Adam Dunn had only one full season of 20.3% or higher. And oh yeah, some guy who plays 1B for the Cardinals has a career average HR/FB% of 15.5% and has never had a rate higher than 18.6% in a full season.

All in all, I'm recommending a sell on Granderson. I know I'm probably in the minority here, and might get blasted, but you don't want to own him when the law of averages take over.


1. He probably won't hit the .250-.260 that he used to, only because he had a significant number of at bats versus lefties that were awful. I've watched him play; for now, that swing is definitely working. If you a .265-.270 average into his stats versus lefties, you'll end up with about a .265 average. That isn't a killer.

2. I'm betting that the HR/FB% won't regress to his career stats, in line with the belief that lefties are having problems getting him out. In fact, his HR/FB rate against them is probably around 30+% - he's absolutely killing them right now. (And Fangraphs has his 2010 HR/FB at 14.5%.) I could see a regression to 15% for the rest of the season, but that translates to 40 HR with ease.


His career HR/FB% is 13.2%. While he won't maintain his 20%+ rate, I agree that he will maintain at least 15% the rest of the way. Don't forget he no longer plays at Comerica, but Yankee stadium.
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Re: Thoughts on Curtis Granderson

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Thu May 26, 2011 8:27 pm

bleach168 wrote:
Gags Sports wrote:
However, if we assume Granderson's career average coming into this year (.268) drops at the fantasy rate defined in my league (-4.2%), then he would finish somewhere around .257. Then if you compare that to what the average team in my 12 team league is hitting (.257 vs. .259), that makes him a slightly less than average "batting average" hitter.

I think we can all agree he's not going to hit .280 this year, which is his current rate. But unless this is a career year across the board (and not just in HR's), then I expect him to remain right in line with an average fantasy baseball batting average. In 2009 and 2010 Granderson had fairly low BABIPs leading to those putrid batting averages. His 2011 BABIP is only 10 points higher this year, but his batting average is 32 points higher than the past two years. I think his batting average is due for a freefall that you are not taking into consideration.


If pitching was the difference, you would see an even drop among batting averages across the board; good players would see the same percentage drop as bad players. But you have shown that fantasy averages have declined 4.2% whereas mlb averages have declined 2.8%. This leads me to believe that there is something going on with hitters that is causing this drop in batting averages. Seeing that it is hurting the elite hitters more than regular hitters, leads me to believe it may not really hurt someone like Granderson as much.

If someone can shed some light onto why hitting is down this year, please share!


I think an expanded strike zone has something to do with this, it seems from watching games that guys like JD Drew have been very perplexed by the strike zone. Guys who are better hitters are likely to have better "eyes" and feel for the strike zone, therefore it would hurt good hitters more than bad hitters? Maybe it's just perception though....i dunno...
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Re: Thoughts on Curtis Granderson

Postby bleach168 » Fri May 27, 2011 4:50 am

buffalobillsrul2002 wrote:
bleach168 wrote:
Gags Sports wrote:
However, if we assume Granderson's career average coming into this year (.268) drops at the fantasy rate defined in my league (-4.2%), then he would finish somewhere around .257. Then if you compare that to what the average team in my 12 team league is hitting (.257 vs. .259), that makes him a slightly less than average "batting average" hitter.

I think we can all agree he's not going to hit .280 this year, which is his current rate. But unless this is a career year across the board (and not just in HR's), then I expect him to remain right in line with an average fantasy baseball batting average. In 2009 and 2010 Granderson had fairly low BABIPs leading to those putrid batting averages. His 2011 BABIP is only 10 points higher this year, but his batting average is 32 points higher than the past two years. I think his batting average is due for a freefall that you are not taking into consideration.


If pitching was the difference, you would see an even drop among batting averages across the board; good players would see the same percentage drop as bad players. But you have shown that fantasy averages have declined 4.2% whereas mlb averages have declined 2.8%. This leads me to believe that there is something going on with hitters that is causing this drop in batting averages. Seeing that it is hurting the elite hitters more than regular hitters, leads me to believe it may not really hurt someone like Granderson as much.

If someone can shed some light onto why hitting is down this year, please share!


I think an expanded strike zone has something to do with this, it seems from watching games that guys like JD Drew have been very perplexed by the strike zone. Guys who are better hitters are likely to have better "eyes" and feel for the strike zone, therefore it would hurt good hitters more than bad hitters? Maybe it's just perception though....i dunno...


Interesting theory. Makes sense.
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