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Buy High/Sell Low Thread

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Buy High/Sell Low Thread

Postby Matthias » Sun May 08, 2011 12:10 pm

This is the opposite of the other one.

List here guys whose performance so far this year is newly good/bad and indicative of what they'll do the rest of the season.

I'll start.

Buy High
Justin Smoak
Alex Gordon

Both are former high prospects who are putting it together so far this season.

Sell Low
Derek Jeter

Put a fork in him. He's done. If you can get anything out of him at all, I would take it.
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Re: Buy High/Sell Low Thread

Postby cs3 » Sun May 08, 2011 10:46 pm

Matthias wrote:Sell Low
Derek Jeter
Put a fork in him. He's done. If you can get anything out of him at all, I would take it.

good timing. he must've read this thread and took it personally.
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Re: Buy High/Sell Low Thread

Postby jpbusta » Sun May 08, 2011 10:54 pm

cs3 wrote:
Matthias wrote:Sell Low
Derek Jeter
Put a fork in him. He's done. If you can get anything out of him at all, I would take it.

good timing. he must've read this thread and took it personally.


:-D
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R2C2.
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Re: Buy High/Sell Low Thread

Postby kab21 » Sun May 08, 2011 11:24 pm

I really like Smoak going forward especially since I have him in a OBP 5x5. Similarly I like Morrison although his value isn't quite as high since he's on the DL (until next weekend?).

I sold low on Ellsbury 3 weeks ago for Kimbrel (and noncloser swaps). He's been on a tear since then but his numbers look funny. Hitting for power (4 HR's) and K'ing a lot. I might regret this move since it pretty much punts SB's but I thought that was better than being below avg in both SB's and saves.
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Re: Buy High/Sell Low Thread

Postby Matthias » Mon May 09, 2011 8:02 am

cs3 wrote:
Matthias wrote:Sell Low
Derek Jeter
Put a fork in him. He's done. If you can get anything out of him at all, I would take it.

good timing. he must've read this thread and took it personally.

I'm sure Captain Groundout will go back to sucking.
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Re: Buy High/Sell Low Thread

Postby hot4tx » Tue May 10, 2011 2:40 pm

Stat I heard on the radio this morning - only 1 SS Jeter's age or older has hit .300 in the past 50 years and only two in the past century (one of them being Honus Wagner). Doesn't mean that Jeter can't, but he's really gotten up there enough in age that its very unlikely for him to continue hitting for high average. Without that his value relies on hitting high in the Yankees lineup for R+RBI, but that isn't a certainty and anyone who's value relies so much on situation (like a closer's value) is subject to drastic change.

If I could sell low on Jeter after the game vs Texas I'd probably do that.

My buy high guy is Shaun Marcum. I got him in one league, but am kicking myself for not reaching for him in the other. If I could get him for a 7th or 8th round value I'd do that now in most leagues.
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Re: Buy High/Sell Low Thread

Postby cs3 » Tue May 10, 2011 6:38 pm

Sell Low: mat latos.
he looks nothing like the dominant pitcher we saw during the summer last year. instead hes been the awful train wreck we saw in september. his control is gone and his velocity is down.
2010 avg FB velocity: 93.7mph
2011 avg FB velocity: 92.0mph
his fly ball rate is now at 53% (only 40%) last year and hes giving up HR's at an alarming rate - already 6 in just 33 innings.
while he may have been slightly unlucky so far (hes starnded only 60% of baserunners, down form the 77% LOB from last year), I think a lot of that bad "luck" is simply because hes sucked. poor command both in and out of the strike zone, and a weaker fasball...
i have to think the shoulder is bothering him still and that he winds up back on the DL sometime this year. im kicking myself for drafting him in the 7th round in 2 leagues and have been trying to move him before the Pads announce some kind of injury

Buy High: Jaime Garcia

Everyone thought last year was a fluke because his ERA was so much better than his FIP, but hes once again one of the best pitchers in the NL in early 2011. His peripherals are all much better than last season, and while his ERA wont stay at 2.00 his FIP is a tiny 2.36, so his ratios are now much better supported by the underlying stats.
Hes dramatically cut his walk rate (3.5 ==> 2.2), increased his K rate(7.3 ==> 8.7), and has flat out dominated. And his GB rate is still at 55% so even when his strikeout stuff is missing he can still get batters out. And with that grounder rate home runs are never a big concern.
Oh btw... hes actually leaving fewer runners on base than he did last year, so his results so far have not been due to luck.

He was drafted in rd 20 and later in many leagues, and is still not widely thought of as a legit ace, so he can be had for far less than his current production would dictate.
The innings jump from '09-'10 is a little worrisome, but all pitchers have at least some injury risk and i think hes worth making an offer on.
Last edited by cs3 on Tue May 10, 2011 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Buy High/Sell Low Thread

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Tue May 10, 2011 6:44 pm

2010 avg FB velocity: 93.7mph
2011 avg FB velocity: 92.0mph

that's not a HUGE drop in velocity... :-?
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Re: Buy High/Sell Low Thread

Postby cs3 » Tue May 10, 2011 6:58 pm

BitterDodgerFan wrote:
2010 avg FB velocity: 93.7mph
2011 avg FB velocity: 92.0mph

that's not a HUGE drop in velocity... :-?

nearly 2 MPH in one season is rather significant.
and when you consider that the major league avg only varies between 90 and 96, i would say that his drop is HUGE.
look here and see how many legit, currently successful, starters you can find that have experienced that kind of velo drop since last year:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... eason=2011
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Re: Buy High/Sell Low Thread

Postby wrveres » Tue May 10, 2011 7:14 pm

cs3 wrote:Sell Low: mat latos.
if any of you in any of my leagues see this, ima buying. shoot me an offer.
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