Sell Low: mat latos.
he looks nothing like the dominant pitcher we saw during the summer last year. instead hes been the awful train wreck we saw in september. his control is gone and his velocity is down.
2010 avg FB velocity: 93.7mph
2011 avg FB velocity: 92.0mph
his fly ball rate is now at 53% (only 40%) last year and hes giving up HR's at an alarming rate - already 6 in just 33 innings.
while he may have been slightly unlucky so far (hes starnded only 60% of baserunners, down form the 77% LOB from last year), I think a lot of that bad "luck" is simply because hes sucked. poor command both in and out of the strike zone, and a weaker fasball...
i have to think the shoulder is bothering him still and that he winds up back on the DL sometime this year. im kicking myself for drafting him in the 7th round in 2 leagues and have been trying to move him before the Pads announce some kind of injury
Buy High: Jaime Garcia
Everyone thought last year was a fluke because his ERA was so much better than his FIP, but hes once again one of the best pitchers in the NL in early 2011. His peripherals are all much better than last season, and while his ERA wont stay at 2.00 his FIP is a tiny 2.36, so his ratios are now much better supported by the underlying stats.
Hes dramatically cut his walk rate (3.5 ==> 2.2), increased his K rate(7.3 ==> 8.7), and has flat out dominated. And his GB rate is still at 55% so even when his strikeout stuff is missing he can still get batters out. And with that grounder rate home runs are never a big concern.
Oh btw... hes actually leaving fewer runners on base than he did last year, so his results so far have not been due to luck.
He was drafted in rd 20 and later in many leagues, and is still not widely thought of as a legit ace, so he can be had for far less than his current production would dictate.
The innings jump from '09-'10 is a little worrisome, but all pitchers have at least some injury risk and i think hes worth making an offer on.
Last edited by cs3 on Tue May 10, 2011 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.