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Avila or Wieters Rest of Season? WHIR!

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Avila or Wieters Rest of Season? WHIR!

Postby BalancedMan » Fri May 06, 2011 4:27 pm

Who do you like for the rest of the season? I think Detroit has a more potent offense and I think they'll get about the same amount of playing time. Wieters may be a better defensive backstop, but that doesn't mean much for fantasy purposes.

H2H 8-Team League, categories are R, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP and SB (but I'm punting SBs so it's irrelevant to me). I want to drop a catcher to make room for Brandon Beachy, so I feel like I need to move fast (I was considering Justin Smoak, but he was snatched up early this morning due to last night's performance).

This is a league where Napoli was dropped (I picked him up, and then dropped him for Avila) and is still in free agency. Wieters was a guy I drafted, I became enamored with Napoli but frustrated just as quick. Avila looks like he could bat for average, which is something I'd like to see out of that spot (so that he doesn't hurt me there, my batting is pretty decent to add the other categories).

I guess placing a premium on keeping AVB/OBP up, who would you keep? Beachy is the guy I want to grab, if not him then I'll get Logan Morrison before people in my league wake up to his talent.

Thanks, I'll help you back.
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Re: Avila or Wieters Rest of Season? WHIR!

Postby SpecialFNK » Fri May 06, 2011 4:48 pm

I would think Wieters has the higher potential.
Wieters has had bad luck this season. he currently has .258 BABIP with 15.2 LD% and 79.3 contact %. last year he was also unlucky and had .287 BABIP with 15.4 LD% and 82.7 contact %. he hit all through the minors with minor league career .343 AVG in 578 AB.

Avila has been lucky this season. he has a high .361 BABIP with 19.7 LD% and 76.8 contact %.

both don't have a lot of experience. Wieters drafted in 2007 and has 578 minor league AB. Avila drafted in 2008 has 542 minor league AB, and .280 career minor league AVG. Wieters has 879 major league AB, where Avila has 436 major league AB.

minor league numbers from thebaseballcube.com
Wieters- http://www.thebaseballcube.com/profile. ... tt-Wieters
Avila - http://www.thebaseballcube.com/profile. ... vila.shtml

right now I don't think it would be terrible to pick Avila over Wieters, but for the entire rest of the season I would think Wieters will end up with the better numbers.

hope I helped a some.
help?
viewtopic.php?t=429733
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Re: Avila or Wieters Rest of Season? WHIR!

Postby BalancedMan » Fri May 06, 2011 4:59 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:I would think Wieters has the higher potential.
Wieters has had bad luck this season. he currently has .258 BABIP with 15.2 LD% and 79.3 contact %. last year he was also unlucky and had .287 BABIP with 15.4 LD% and 82.7 contact %. he hit all through the minors with minor league career .343 AVG in 578 AB.

Avila has been lucky this season. he has a high .361 BABIP with 19.7 LD% and 76.8 contact %.

both don't have a lot of experience. Wieters drafted in 2007 and has 578 minor league AB. Avila drafted in 2008 has 542 minor league AB, and .280 career minor league AVG. Wieters has 879 major league AB, where Avila has 436 major league AB.

minor league numbers from thebaseballcube.com
Wieters- http://www.thebaseballcube.com/profile. ... tt-Wieters
Avila - http://www.thebaseballcube.com/profile. ... vila.shtml

right now I don't think it would be terrible to pick Avila over Wieters, but for the entire rest of the season I would think Wieters will end up with the better numbers.

hope I helped a some.
help?
viewtopic.php?t=429733


Where do you find BABIP stats? I've been looking for that for a while now.
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Re: Avila or Wieters Rest of Season? WHIR!

Postby SpecialFNK » Fri May 06, 2011 5:04 pm

BalancedMan wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:I would think Wieters has the higher potential.
Wieters has had bad luck this season. he currently has .258 BABIP with 15.2 LD% and 79.3 contact %. last year he was also unlucky and had .287 BABIP with 15.4 LD% and 82.7 contact %. he hit all through the minors with minor league career .343 AVG in 578 AB.

Avila has been lucky this season. he has a high .361 BABIP with 19.7 LD% and 76.8 contact %.

both don't have a lot of experience. Wieters drafted in 2007 and has 578 minor league AB. Avila drafted in 2008 has 542 minor league AB, and .280 career minor league AVG. Wieters has 879 major league AB, where Avila has 436 major league AB.

minor league numbers from thebaseballcube.com
Wieters- http://www.thebaseballcube.com/profile. ... tt-Wieters
Avila - http://www.thebaseballcube.com/profile. ... vila.shtml

right now I don't think it would be terrible to pick Avila over Wieters, but for the entire rest of the season I would think Wieters will end up with the better numbers.

hope I helped a some.
help?
viewtopic.php?t=429733


Where do you find BABIP stats? I've been looking for that for a while now.


fangraphs.com is the best for all the deeper statistics.
http://www.fangraphs.com
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Re: Avila or Wieters Rest of Season? WHIR!

Postby BalancedMan » Fri May 06, 2011 5:31 pm

It's frustrating...everywhere I ask people keep saying Weiters, and I'm inclined to agree since I did draft him after all...however, Avila is a top-70 player right now and the #2 catcher while Weiters is in the 200's in rank (although still like the 5th or 6th rated catcher). Just not a fan of Weiters AVG/OBP right now, the rest of everything is fine for me....sigh. I feel like I need to make a decision soon though. I ran out of transactions for the week until Monday, hoping that Beachy is still around by then.
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Re: Avila or Wieters Rest of Season? WHIR!

Postby BalancedMan » Fri May 06, 2011 5:43 pm

Or should I drop someone else to pick up Beachy? Current roster:

C: Wieters
1B: Cabrera
2B: Neil Walker
SS: Alexa Rameriz
MI: Mike Aviles
3B: Jose Bautista
IF: Prince Fielder
OF: Stanton
OF: Quentin
OF: Hart
OF: Berkman
OF: Coughlan
UTIL: Avila
BN: Hamilton (hurt)
BN: Sandoval (hurt)
DL: Utley

P: Ogando
P: Feliz
P: Josh Johnson
P: Ubaldo
P: Gio Gonzalez
P: Cahill
P: Hamels
P: Liriano
P: Jurrjens
P: CJ Wilson
P: Bud Norris


If I drop a hitter I'll have a hole in my lineup until someone gets healthy, but I'm pretty much willing to accept that at this point. I thought catcher was the place to drop a person. I plan on swapping Coughlan for Logan Morrison as he gets near returning.

Any thoughts/suggestions? Thanks.
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Re: Avila or Wieters Rest of Season? WHIR!

Postby BalancedMan » Fri May 06, 2011 7:59 pm

I've studied up on advanced metrics and feel that using Wieters minor's BA is a bad argument because his BABIP was extremely high there as well. FanGraphs does think Wieters will do better the rest of the way as his BABIP converges to a more normal number, while Avila's will decline.

One question though, how does team defense factor into this with BABIP. Looking at UZR, the AL East teams (Yanks, RSox, BJays, and Rays) are all positive when it comes to defensive ratings, but AL Central teams like Twins, White Sox aren't great , though Royals and Indians are good (perhaps why they're off to a hot start to the season?). Does this factor into an individuals BABIP for the rest of the season? Sorry, I know it's a random question. Thanks.
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