I was offered Stubbs, Drabek, and Smoak for Werth, Liriano, and Hunter. I am in a 10 keeper H2H league with normal 6x6 scoring. Would you give up on the Werths and Hunters of the world and take on the younger talent of Drabek and Stubbs? Thanks
McCann Pena Phillips Alexia Ramirez Beltre Hunter Ethier Choo Werth BJ Upton C. Lee Brett Anderson Liriano Gallardo
Last edited by Newkie on Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
::::On a Soapbox::: This title is misleading, and this trade is in no way Liriano for Stubbs, its more like Werth and Liriano for Stubbs and Drabek. I wouldnt take this trade because Werth is worth more than that
I did change the title to a more accurate description of what is being offered, sorry. Back to the offer, I am not dumb to see that Liriano and Werth are ranked higher combined than Stubbs and Drabek, no doubt, but because of the keeper league status, and the fact Werth is in Washington, and he is not getting any younger, I was thinking in the long run, this might make sense? You are probably right with not liking this offer, and thats why I didnt just jump at it. Anyone else have a different opinion?
So the reason I dont like it isnt current rankings, but the combined value of the offer projected a couple yrs out. While Werth and Liriano arent getting any younger, they are certainly not old enough to expect rapid decline in numbers without unforseeable injuries (same thing can be said about Drabek and Stubbs). What you do have with them is maturity and known "knowns". You know what they can do, you know they can do it, and Werth is pretty darn reliable at it. Liriano will never be as nasty as he was the first yr in the bigs, but he showed us last year he is still capable of utter dominance. While Stubbs and Drabek should be good for the forseeable future, what we have with them is a bunch of unknowns. How long will it take for the to reach their potential? What is their potential?
The main question on this trade is this: Would you rather have the chance at 5 more HR over a 6 month season or take the known 30 you're going to get from Werth? Are you willing to not get Werths 30 HR a season until Stubbs develops fully? Im using Werth as an example, but the same applies to the Liriano/Drabek switchoff (which I think is about even potential wise anyways, so why wait it out while Drabek develops, especially with the ERA he will have in that divison as a rookie). Pitchers take longer to develop anyways, and Drabek is no Lincecum. The best rookie pitcher last yr was Jamie Garcia, who got 13 W and 132 K with a stellar 2.7 ERA. Are those even close to Liriano numbers?
I just dont think its werth it, long run or short run, to do this trade