J35J wrote:James has him less than last year because of a regression in ABs....otherwise he has him pretty much the same. I think that will be the biggest question...is he penciled in as a full time guy or not? Looks like the numbers like his defense pretty well so he isn't a liability there. I'd expect pretty simlar numbers overall...maybe a dip in SB...not sure if he'll be a consistant 20SB guy or not. But the biggest question for me at this point will be playing time...is he a full time starter? There isn't a ton of data to look at yet but it doesn't look like he's much of a hitter against righties right now...that may limit how much he plays?
Yeah, I should have specified that, as I did notice the drop off in AB. I guess I was assuming, as Skin Blues pointed out, that he'd be a full-time player, because I can't see any reason he shouldn't be. I'm interested to see your projections for him, J.
Yeah, I was under the impression he'd get more ABs as well but seeing James had him at 400 I wasn't sure if there was something I was missing. Anyway, I'd still like to see him this spring...is he in good shape, does he and the organization plan to let him run, is he batting at the top of the order, is he a full time guy, does he play well in spring...I'll likely tweak my projections on him a couple times this preseason. Looking at my spreadsheet I haven't really gone out on a limb either way with him yet...more of the same...
500AB .254/.342/.418(If he is a full time starter he could certainly get 600AB if he continues to hit near the top of the order) 127H/26Dbls/1Tpls 18HR/15SB 65RBI/82R (assuming he gets most of his AB's at the top of the order) 66BB/106K
J35J wrote:James has him less than last year because of a regression in ABs....otherwise he has him pretty much the same. I think that will be the biggest question...is he penciled in as a full time guy or not? Looks like the numbers like his defense pretty well so he isn't a liability there. I'd expect pretty simlar numbers overall...maybe a dip in SB...not sure if he'll be a consistant 20SB guy or not. But the biggest question for me at this point will be playing time...is he a full time starter? There isn't a ton of data to look at yet but it doesn't look like he's much of a hitter against righties right now...that may limit how much he plays?
Yeah, I should have specified that, as I did notice the drop off in AB. I guess I was assuming, as Skin Blues pointed out, that he'd be a full-time player, because I can't see any reason he shouldn't be. I'm interested to see your projections for him, J.
Yeah, I was under the impression he'd get more ABs as well but seeing James had him at 400 I wasn't sure if there was something I was missing. Anyway, I'd still like to see him this spring...is he in good shape, does he and the organization plan to let him run, is he batting at the top of the order, is he a full time guy, does he play well in spring...I'll likely tweak my projections on him a couple times this preseason. Looking at my spreadsheet I haven't really gone out on a limb either way with him yet...more of the same...
500AB .254/.342/.418(If he is a full time starter he could certainly get 600AB if he continues to hit near the top of the order) 127H/26Dbls/1Tpls 18HR/15SB 65RBI/82R (assuming he gets most of his AB's at the top of the order) 66BB/106K
I think he'll probably be a full time player, he's a good defender and the dbacks don't really have anyone else who should take starts from him at 3rd. also i went to a few games in arizona last year and the fans love him; not saying that'll have a big impact on how much he starts, but it definitely can't hurt.
i also think he should hit for a pretty decent average. his BABIP last year was significantly lower than his xBABIP, and while he probably won't sustain his line drive rate, he seems to have the skills to improve on last year's numbers. he also has a pretty good grasp of the strike zone (walks a lot and doesn't strike out too much), i think he could hit closer to .270-.275 with the potential to go higher.
i don't think his upside is very high, but he seems to have a pretty solid all-around skill set and that should make him decently valuable, especially with his dual eligibility.
Topic is a bit old but if you plan on doing anything with him in 2012 keep this in mind.
He hit .239 with 8 HR, 5 SB and just 39 R and 28 RBI in the second half. Anyone who picked him up while hot in 2011 probably made a mistake by playing him at all in the 2nd half.
Ender wrote:Topic is a bit old but if you plan on doing anything with him in 2012 keep this in mind.
He hit .239 with 8 HR, 5 SB and just 39 R and 28 RBI in the second half. Anyone who picked him up while hot in 2011 probably made a mistake by playing him at all in the 2nd half.
Agreed. Roberts is someone I was definitely wrong about - that first half production had me really overthinking things, trying to come up with arguments for why he could be for real. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, you know? For every guy who does make a substantial leap in sustainable performance there are 50 who have a couple hot months and then fall off the map forever.
Ender wrote:Topic is a bit old but if you plan on doing anything with him in 2012 keep this in mind.
He hit .239 with 8 HR, 5 SB and just 39 R and 28 RBI in the second half. Anyone who picked him up while hot in 2011 probably made a mistake by playing him at all in the 2nd half.
Everybody in baseball is either better in the first or second half, every season. His pre vs post ASB splits are perfectly fine. It's also not half a season, closer to 1/3. He had 43 R and 32 RBI in the actual second half of the season... nothing wrong with that.
I have him in an NL only keeper at a very low salary ($6)... this thread makes me smile! He also hit a lot more line drives last year in a full time role which makes me encouraged that he will have a higher BABIP. The only downside is injury risk, as he plays very aggressively.
When it comes to exaggerating, I always give 110%.
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by J35J » Fri Dec 09, 2011 6:54 pm 
Looks like I'm going to end up renewing him for another year in my auction dynasty league. Thank you sir.
