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"Fire & Ice" will be a bi-weekly column published every Tuesday afternoon, so keep an eye out for it!
Hey, Fantasy Baseball King here. In “Fire and Ice,” I’ll analyze the past 2 weeks’ performances, and using my best combination of statistical analysis, baseball knowledge, charm, and pure crystal ball wizadry provide you with a plan of action for the coming week.
Fire – But will they stay hot?
Jonny Gomes - Jonny’s set the baseball world aflame over the past week, raising his batting average from .227 on April 10 all the way to .268 on April 16. During that time span, he also smacked 4 homers, drove in 8 RBI’s, and helped Reds’ fans cope with the thus-far poor performance of Jay Bruce.
Analysis: Jonny Gomes has only had more than 500 at-bats in his career once (2010). In that season, he hit a useful but not studly .266/.328/.431 with 18 HR, 86 RBI, 77 R, and 5 SB. That was good for a 104 OPS+, which is actually less than his career mark of 110. Perhaps he is better suited as a part-time platoon player and occasional pinch hitter, getting 300-400 at-bats per season. Statistically, his best year was 2009, in which he hit .267/.338/.541 with an astounding 20 homers in only 314 at-bats. Notice an outlier there? His slugging percentage was 80 points higher than his career average. Now in 2011, his dash line is .268/.456/.683 (notice that nice outlier again). Of course, it’s early, so not much can be said about ratios. The important thing to do is see why they are what they are. In this case, Jonny Gomes is walking at an incredible 26.3% in 2011. His career mark is 9.6%. What do YOU think the chances are of him keeping this up? If he were 25 years old and coming into his own, I may buy a sudden increase in maturity. But he’s not; he’s 30, and simply put – he is what he is. Look for Gomes to finish somewhere around what he does every year, and what ZiPs predicted he would – .256/.335/.464.
Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .263, 22 HR, 70 RBI, 60 R, 8 SB
To read the rest of this column, head over to http://razzball.com/fire-and-ice-week-3/
The Fantasy Baseball King