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Matt Garza -- Extremely unlucky!?

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Matt Garza -- Extremely unlucky!?

Postby kickureface » Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:00 am

First time doing an advanced stat analysis: here's some positives so far
12 K/9
2.4 BB/9
FIP: 1.18
xFIP: 1.94

The bad:
BABIP: .474
LOB: 59%
ERA: 6.27
WHIP: 1.71



So if I learned this right, BABIP should lower towards .300, LOB should improve to 70% which should suggest both improve his ERA and WHIP significantly. His microscopic FIP means he's been quite unlucky so better things are to come, though his career FIP is 4.80 with last year at 4.40 so it implies he's hot, yet unlucky.

Comment so I can learn if I did anything right.
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Re: Matt Garza -- Extremely unlucky!?

Postby Curtis Pride » Wed Apr 20, 2011 2:03 pm

BABIP doesn't normalize to an league average, it should normalize to his career average and/or team average whatever that may be. But .300 is directionally correct.

Additionally, LOB% aren't league averages because like Lincecum who rarely let people on base are going to have a higher strand rate because in the unlikely event that a player gets on base, it's even an unliklier event that another batter will get on base to drive the first runner in. Someone like Livan Hernandez who lets a lot of guys on base will have a lower LOB% because he also gives up a ton of runs. So again, you probably want to normalize to the pitcher's career average, not some league average if you want to be accurate.

But to your point, yes, Garza is an amazing buy-low right now.
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Re: Matt Garza -- Extremely unlucky!?

Postby tianyi86 » Wed Apr 20, 2011 3:15 pm

Be careful of things like a pitcher is unlucky, so just buy him. I fell for this in the past few years by consistently taking Dave Bush in late rounds. Sometimes, a pitcher is "unlucky" for a reason. I'm not saying Garza = Bush, but Garza's career hr rate, and given how homerun friendly Wrigley Field is, is a cause for concern. I know, I know, he hasn't give up a hr yet, but it's something to think about.
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Re: Matt Garza -- Extremely unlucky!?

Postby Padsin05 » Wed Apr 20, 2011 3:55 pm

Dustin Moseley is unlucky, 0 run support in 4 starts
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Re: Matt Garza -- Extremely unlucky!?

Postby kickureface » Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:29 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:BABIP doesn't normalize to an league average, it should normalize to his career average and/or team average whatever that may be. But .300 is directionally correct.

Additionally, LOB% aren't league averages because like Lincecum who rarely let people on base are going to have a higher strand rate because in the unlikely event that a player gets on base, it's even an unliklier event that another batter will get on base to drive the first runner in. Someone like Livan Hernandez who lets a lot of guys on base will have a lower LOB% because he also gives up a ton of runs. So again, you probably want to normalize to the pitcher's career average, not some league average if you want to be accurate.

But to your point, yes, Garza is an amazing buy-low right now.


this is only true for batters isnt it? not for pitchers

livan LOB = 72 career
lincecum LOB = 75 career
halladay 73%
cliff lee 72%
sabathia 73%
verlander 72%

seems most stabilize around 72% (likely league average) whereas lincecum is slightly higher. natural because there are always a few above and below the average (and he also has a much smaller sample than some of the vets).

thoughts?
12x23
Keep: 1IF, 1OF, 1SP, 1RP
R, HR, RBI, AVG, SB, BB, K, 1B, 2B, (3B, E, GS)
W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, BB, HLD, IP, QS, (L, BS, CG)

C: Montero
1B: Teix
2B: Roberts
3B: Longoria
SS: Nishioka
LF: Holliday
CF: Rios
RF: Bruce
OF: Pence
IF: Kila
Util: Raburn
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Re: Matt Garza -- Extremely unlucky!?

Postby cs3 » Wed Apr 20, 2011 6:21 pm

garza has not been THAT unlucky. his strikeout rate has been way way above his career avg (like almost twice as high), and hes still giving up a ton of hits. Andd he hasnt even given up a HR yet - that will most definitely change soon.
Last few seasons hes been one of those guys that starts off incredibly hot and then regresses back to his meh self as the season progresses, so keep that in mind as well
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Re: Matt Garza -- Extremely unlucky!?

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 20, 2011 6:33 pm

I don't like how long they left him out there today when he obviously had lost his control and his pitch count had grown pretty high. Those are the types of pitches that end up leading to the injuries, when you are tired and going max effort.
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Re: Matt Garza -- Extremely unlucky!?

Postby kab21 » Wed Apr 20, 2011 8:05 pm

cs3 wrote:garza has not been THAT unlucky. his strikeout rate has been way way above his career avg (like almost twice as high), and hes still giving up a ton of hits. Andd he hasnt even given up a HR yet - that will most definitely change soon.
Last few seasons hes been one of those guys that starts off incredibly hot and then regresses back to his meh self as the season progresses, so keep that in mind as well


Yes this hasn't been mentioned yet. The statistical analysis is like the OP did is basically worthless after 3 games. At this point you basically just expect Garza to pitch similar to past seasons although the AL to NL and wrigley will have an effect. so he's been unlucky as far as ERA (before today's game) but lucky as far as K's, BB's, and HR's. One key thing to check after 3 games is that his control isn't awful and that his pitch velocities are similar to career avgs. They are and Garza was a good buy low before today.

One thing worth mentioning about Garza is that he's always rated very highly as far stuff goes but he's never posted great K rates and has had ERA's around 4. So it's possible that he can break out from his career avgs due to a change in scenery and a new pitching coach. One thing I notice is that he only used his fastball 53% of the time in the first 3 games and is relying on 3 other pitches more than in the past. His fastball and slider velocities are also trending towards each other in velocity which is interesting. But it's too early to call a breakout.
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Re: Matt Garza -- Extremely unlucky!?

Postby kab21 » Sun May 01, 2011 8:14 pm

kab21 wrote:
cs3 wrote:garza has not been THAT unlucky. his strikeout rate has been way way above his career avg (like almost twice as high), and hes still giving up a ton of hits. Andd he hasnt even given up a HR yet - that will most definitely change soon.
Last few seasons hes been one of those guys that starts off incredibly hot and then regresses back to his meh self as the season progresses, so keep that in mind as well


Yes this hasn't been mentioned yet. The statistical analysis is like the OP did is basically worthless after 3 games. At this point you basically just expect Garza to pitch similar to past seasons although the AL to NL and wrigley will have an effect. so he's been unlucky as far as ERA (before today's game) but lucky as far as K's, BB's, and HR's. One key thing to check after 3 games is that his control isn't awful and that his pitch velocities are similar to career avgs. They are and Garza was a good buy low before today.

One thing worth mentioning about Garza is that he's always rated very highly as far stuff goes but he's never posted great K rates and has had ERA's around 4. So it's possible that he can break out from his career avgs due to a change in scenery and a new pitching coach. One thing I notice is that he only used his fastball 53% of the time in the first 3 games and is relying on 3 other pitches more than in the past. His fastball and slider velocities are also trending towards each other in velocity which is interesting. But it's too early to call a breakout.


An excellent fangraphs article was written about Garza mentioning the bolded. I think we might be looking at a new improved Garza this year and he is going to have a great season. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... position=P
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Re: Matt Garza -- Extremely unlucky!?

Postby cs3 » Mon May 02, 2011 12:12 am

i read that article as well, and while it did point to the results being due to a new approach/coaching/pitch selection, im still not totally convinced.

what do you guys think is a realistic K rate going forward?
Im obviously not buying anything near the 12k/9 hes currently sporting, but do you think a lesser (but still drastic) increase in strikeouts is sustainable?
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