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Pending Trade (Gio Gonzalez for Matt Garza) Who wins?

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Pending Trade (Gio Gonzalez for Matt Garza) Who wins?

Postby joshtribe » Sat Apr 16, 2011 11:11 am

Hey ya'll,

I sent out this offer (I'm trading Gio Gonzalez) to another manager who agreed to send me Matt Garza in return. My question to you all is, "Who wins this trade going foward this season?" I'm in a standard H2H Yahoo Public league .

The way I look at it, (if I'm analyzing the stats correctly, I'm somewhat new to advanced statistics) Gio Gonzalez has been lucky. His ERA stands at 0.47, but his FIP and xFIP are 4.19 and 4.65. His K rate is down to 6.63 from last year's 7.67. His walk rate is up to an ungodly 5.68 from last year's 4.13.

Gonzalez's rest of the season ZIPS projection: 9 W, 4.39 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 157 K

Matt Garza, on the other hand, has been unlucky to the extreme. His ERA is currently 6.27, but his FIP and xFIP are 1.21 and 1.95. His K/BB ratio is a stellar 5.00. Also, his GB% is up...which would help him on those windy days at Wrigley.

Garza's rest of the season ZIPS projection: 12 W, 3.78 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 158 K

Now, I drafted Gonzalez in the 10th round based his great spring and hoping that he could improve his command. He has the stuff to be a top 15 fantasy ace if he could ever throw strikes. But it appears that gamble will not pay off this season, as his command has been even worse. His wildness just hasn't caught up with him yet. His last start (6 BB in 6 IP with 2 WP) kind of blew my mind. In almost every updated SP ranking I've seen, Gonzalez is ranked barely to well ahead of Garza. Why is that? Given the evidence I presented, Garza should be far superior from this point forward.

In my opinion, the only way I could be considered the loser in this trade is if I didn't sell high enough on Gonzalez. Numberswise, I feel pretty good switching Garza for Gonzalez in my rotation.
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Re: Pending Trade (Gio Gonzalez for Matt Garza) Who wins?

Postby avsfan4ever33 » Sat Apr 16, 2011 11:56 am

I like Gio a whole lot more then Garza.
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Re: Pending Trade (Gio Gonzalez for Matt Garza) Who wins?

Postby lefthandedforlife » Sat Apr 16, 2011 12:04 pm

I also like Gio. Your right that he looks wild and may not have caught up with him yet. If you want to get rid of him I think you can get more than Garza. Shop Gio around and try to make an amazing trade for yourself.

Looking for some advice:
viewtopic.php?t=427509
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Re: Pending Trade (Gio Gonzalez for Matt Garza) Who wins?

Postby footballisbetter.com » Sat Apr 16, 2011 12:08 pm

avsfan4ever33 wrote:I like Gio a whole lot more then Garza.

I do too
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Re: Pending Trade (Gio Gonzalez for Matt Garza) Who wins?

Postby joshtribe » Sat Apr 16, 2011 12:17 pm

Seems like the consensus opinion is that Gio is the superior pitcher. Stuffwise, I have to agree, but I think he's going to be a drag on my WHIP. Is there any statistical basis for all ya'll's assertion that Gonzalez is indeed better than Garza?

I suppose I should say that I'm placing an extra emphasis on low WHIP starters. No Brandon Morrows or Jorge De La Rosas are allowed on my team. Here is the rest of my rotation.

Cole Hamels
Tommy Hanson
Francisco Liriano
Hiroki Kuroda
Gio Gonzalez (Matt Garza)
Dan Hudson
Jhoulys Chacin
Michael Pineda
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