12x23 H2H NONSTANDARD keeper league. Keepers: 1IF, 1OF, 1SP, 1RP to be next year's first 4 rounds. Everyone else dropped. Hitting: R, HR, RBI, AVG, SB, BB, K, 1B, 2B, (3B, E, GS)<===these are 'luck' cats to improve parity. Pitching: W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, BB, HLD, IP, QS, (L, BS, CG)<===luck categories
my Evan and Teix for Votto and Youk? I'd obviously keep either evan or votto. Who's the better keeper? and what's the better pair for this year?
Keep in mind some odd categories (singles, doubles, strikeouts, BB, error/3B (less important) )
UPDATE: I countered with this: my Evan, Teix, Delmon Young, David Freese and Colby Lewis and 17 and 19 picks for his Youkilis, Votto, Tabata and 9 and 11 picks for next year (pick #5 is our first round of picking since 1-4 are keepers).
Am I giving too much? I have Verlander Lincecum and Weaver and wood (bumgarner beachy-going to drop- and lewis) in my SP. Evan was on my DL so i was able to grab freese and must drop him to trade.
Last edited by kickureface on Fri Apr 15, 2011 11:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
You have some very specific rules in this league. I'm not a fan of the added categories to improve parity, but it seems like an interesting league.
Anyways, in terms of strictly keeper value, I would probably go ahead and decline this trade. Of the four players involved, Evan Longoria provides the most keeper value given your league settings.
Because you can keep only 1 IF from year to year, Evan Longoria playing at a much shallower position means you will have a player that will put up similar numbers to Votto, but will outproduce those teams at 3B in a greater capacity than Votto will over other 1B in the league.
Longoria also happens to be two years younger, however I don't think that really matters here as both players are just now entering their respective prime years and should produce for the foreseeable future.
Now, you will have a better idea than us as to how competitive you will be this season and whether you have a chance to win the league or not (this year). In terms of value for THIS season, I would suggest you accept the trade.
I am a strong believer in Kevin Youkilis this season. I think he will finish the year with a .300+ avg (as he has in '08, '09, and '10) with 95+ R, 100+ RBI (he currently has Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, and Gonzalez hitting in front of him), and 30 HR power.
^I feel like this is Evan Longoria's ceiling considering the time he will miss due to injury and the type of injury he has. An oblique injury is one that can nag a player throughout an entire season. He will either play through a nagging injury for awhile (if not all season long) or Tampa Bay will realize they are not contending this season and therefore he could be nursed back to health and thus lose more time overall. Either way, I believe his overall numbers ceiling is what I fully expect Youkilis to do, and because of that Youkilis is the safer pick with higher upside this season.
With that said, Joey Votto will most likely put up better overall numbers than Mark Teixeira this season, albeit not necessarily by a ton.
In summary, for the long term keeper aspect of things I would take the Longoria side as I feel he is the most valuable keeper in this trade. If you are able to contend this season, I would take the Votto/Youkilis side as Joey Votto's keeper value, given your league settings, is just a speck under Longoria's IMO. Votto/Youkilis is the safer trade for this season.
this is one of the bests posts ever. very detailed and informative. thanks!!
i threw the categories (no 3b, GS, E) in BBM and it posted Votto (1.05) right behind Albert (1.59) and Miguel (1.12). Meanwhile no 3B made the top15. Thus the assertion that Longoria and Votto have pretty similar numbers probably is not entirely true. Prado was the 15th at (0.62) and Teixiera at (0.68). No mention of youkilis either.
Projected remaining stats for Votto
AB R H RBI BB K BA HR SB 1B 2B 531 95 167 99 79 122 0.315 32 14 97 37
I definitely considered positional scarcity when this was offered, but the BBM projections of Evan nowhere in the top15 makes me wonder.
I CAN contend and plan to win (though luck is still luck), if that helps.
Votto is the best player in this trade for this year and as a keeper. Then if you made me choose between Tex and Youks I'd take Tex every time (unless Youks gets 3B eligibility, which actually won't matter too much since your keeper must be IF)
I'm extremely concerned about Longoria this year. Aside from the injury, there's no one protecting him in that lineup. Zobrist, Damon, and Upton are not names that strike fear into the hearts of any pitcher.
I like Youk this year. I just traded for him. When that lineup clicks he's going to put up monster numbers.