Skin Blues wrote:Youk was a second rounder. Tabata was a 15th rounder. You tell me where the risk is between those two. Obviously I wouldn't choose Tabata if Youk was still on the board, I just happen to think they'll have a similar value this year.
Well, I think the point is is that if you have them right next to each other in your rankings, there isn't much obviousness that you would choose Youk. If someone had Youkilis ranked 120 spots higher than Tabata, it would be obvious that they would choose him. But you can't have your cake of, "They're basically the same" and eat it too, "but obviously I would take Youkilis if they were both on the board."
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
Skin Blues wrote:It was a response to somebody saying 145 is what they expect from him. I didn't set the arbitrary line, but it does seem to be his max. He's also on the wrong side of 30 and playing a more physically demanding position this year. And it's not just "last year he hurt his thumb". It's "every year he's hurt something"
To be honest I'm sort of playing devil's advocate here, but the fact you have him down for 95/110 is about as crazy as if he got 85/90.
I guess I don't really think of playing 145 games as having an injured season; that's 1 DL trip basically or just a few games off here and there.
I'm not totally clear on Youk's injury history past the last couple of seasons, but it's worth noting that a couple of those 145 game seasons came when Ortiz was in his prime and Lowell was still a durable and reliable 3B (at least in 06 and 07), and Youk sat during interleague play.
Skin Blues wrote:Youk was a second rounder. Tabata was a 15th rounder. You tell me where the risk is between those two. Obviously I wouldn't choose Tabata if Youk was still on the board, I just happen to think they'll have a similar value this year.
Well, I think the point is is that if you have them right next to each other in your rankings, there isn't much obviousness that you would choose Youk. If someone had Youkilis ranked 120 spots higher than Tabata, it would be obvious that they would choose him. But you can't have your cake of, "They're basically the same" and eat it too, "but obviously I would take Youkilis if they were both on the board."
I didn't say I would choose Youk. I said I wouldn't choose Tabata since it would be way too early and I know I can get him later. This is pretty basic draft strategy.
Skin Blues wrote:Youk was a second rounder. Tabata was a 15th rounder. You tell me where the risk is between those two. Obviously I wouldn't choose Tabata if Youk was still on the board, I just happen to think they'll have a similar value this year.
Sure they could, Tabata could also be in the minors by the all star break(obviously not likely especially with the hot start but a 2nd year player with his skillset could certainly fail). These players are pretty extreme in the difference in risk between them on draft day.
Skin Blues wrote:Youk was a second rounder. Tabata was a 15th rounder. You tell me where the risk is between those two. Obviously I wouldn't choose Tabata if Youk was still on the board, I just happen to think they'll have a similar value this year.
Well, I think the point is is that if you have them right next to each other in your rankings, there isn't much obviousness that you would choose Youk. If someone had Youkilis ranked 120 spots higher than Tabata, it would be obvious that they would choose him. But you can't have your cake of, "They're basically the same" and eat it too, "but obviously I would take Youkilis if they were both on the board."
I didn't say I would choose Youk. I said I wouldn't choose Tabata since it would be way too early and I know I can get him later. This is pretty basic draft strategy.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
Is it really that easy to confuse you? I don't know how I can explain it in more basic terms.
If Youkilis was on the board still, then there's probably lots of other players gooder than Tabata available. I would take the gooder players first. I would take Tabata 10 rounds later. Cake: Eaten.
This thread's gotten really off-track so I'll drop it.
More on point, Youkilis obviously isn't off to a hot start but he does have a pretty startling slash line: .182 / .426 / .273. It's been a cold start but he still can take walks.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
Skin Blues wrote:Youk was a second rounder. Tabata was a 15th rounder. You tell me where the risk is between those two. Obviously I wouldn't choose Tabata if Youk was still on the board, I just happen to think they'll have a similar value this year.
??? please post some expected projections for each! tabata and youk being close is hard to believe
Skin Blues wrote:Is it really that easy to confuse you? I don't know how I can explain it in more basic terms.
If Youkilis was on the board still, then there's probably lots of other players gooder than Tabata available. I would take the gooder players first. I would take Tabata 10 rounds later. Cake: Eaten.
The use of gooder, twice, is a joke, right? Public school failed you
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by Matthias » Fri Apr 15, 2011 6:13 pm 
