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Kevin Youkilis--fully healthy this year?

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Re: Kevin Youkilis--fully healthy this year?

Postby J35J » Fri Apr 15, 2011 3:07 pm

Matthias wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:Meh, I try to be impartial when the numbers are crunched. Obviously he has the upside to be better than 97 overall, but the injury risk has to be accounted for, as well as other things. And for the record, I'm almost positive that neither his 2006 or 2007 lines would crack the top 100 this year. Those are Chase Headley numbers (what I have him projected for), with less speed. I had him right beside Tabata in my rankings. Crazy as that may have seemed, I would not be surprised in the least if Tabata ends up with better numbers, and I'm more than happy that I "reached" for him in pretty much every league, and avoided Youkilis.

I'm sorry. This is crazy.

+1
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Re: Kevin Youkilis--fully healthy this year?

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Apr 15, 2011 3:12 pm

J35J wrote:
Matthias wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:Meh, I try to be impartial when the numbers are crunched. Obviously he has the upside to be better than 97 overall, but the injury risk has to be accounted for, as well as other things. And for the record, I'm almost positive that neither his 2006 or 2007 lines would crack the top 100 this year. Those are Chase Headley numbers (what I have him projected for), with less speed. I had him right beside Tabata in my rankings. Crazy as that may have seemed, I would not be surprised in the least if Tabata ends up with better numbers, and I'm more than happy that I "reached" for him in pretty much every league, and avoided Youkilis.

I'm sorry. This is crazy.

+1

I agree. Youk has been the model of career progression and consistency for the last five years. If he plays 145 games as he has in healthy seasons, there isn't a single thing that should keep him from 90 Runs, 28 HR, and 95 RBI with a .300+ Batting Average. If that's 94th overall, with 3B eligibility, then I just don't know very much about this game.
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Re: Kevin Youkilis--fully healthy this year?

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Apr 15, 2011 3:32 pm

Well for starters, he's only played more than 145 games once, neither of which were in the past 2 seasons where he's averaged 119. As for being a 3B, there's no difference in scarcity in standard roto between 1B and 3B so that doesn't make a difference. I imagine .300-25-90-90 is a reasonable expectation. Then again he could post 2008 numbers and be off the charts, or 2010 and be off the charts in the other direction. Maybe I'm selling him short, but he's a big risk and I don't like risks when most people are paying the risk-free price.
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Re: Kevin Youkilis--fully healthy this year?

Postby Matthias » Fri Apr 15, 2011 4:17 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Then bring some sanity, Matthias! Do you expect 30-100-100? Sounds like nice even numbers, let's go with that.

Probably 27/95/110 but basically the same level of value. And my league uses AVG & OBP so figure .290 / .390 in those categories.
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Re: Kevin Youkilis--fully healthy this year?

Postby Matthias » Fri Apr 15, 2011 4:25 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Well for starters, he's only played more than 145 games once, neither of which were in the past 2 seasons where he's averaged 119. As for being a 3B, there's no difference in scarcity in standard roto between 1B and 3B so that doesn't make a difference. I imagine .300-25-90-90 is a reasonable expectation. Then again he could post 2008 numbers and be off the charts, or 2010 and be off the charts in the other direction. Maybe I'm selling him short, but he's a big risk and I don't like risks when most people are paying the risk-free price.

Do you mean in the last 3 years? Because he played 145 games in 2008, 145 games in 2007, and 147 games in 2006. And fwiw, he played 136 games in 2009.

Oh, I get it. No, you mean career. You just decided to define the cutoff as the absolute maximum to make him look bad.

In any case, your criticism comes down to, "Last year Youkilis hurt his thumb." Now if you have something specific about that you consider a risk then fine. But it's foolish to ignore that's not what it's about but rather that Youkilis is somehow fragile or something.

But ok, but that was for your "starters"; where's the meat of the meal?
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Re: Kevin Youkilis--fully healthy this year?

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Apr 15, 2011 4:43 pm

Matthias wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:Well for starters, he's only played more than 145 games once, neither of which were in the past 2 seasons where he's averaged 119. As for being a 3B, there's no difference in scarcity in standard roto between 1B and 3B so that doesn't make a difference. I imagine .300-25-90-90 is a reasonable expectation. Then again he could post 2008 numbers and be off the charts, or 2010 and be off the charts in the other direction. Maybe I'm selling him short, but he's a big risk and I don't like risks when most people are paying the risk-free price.

Do you mean in the last 3 years? Because he played 145 games in 2008, 145 games in 2007, and 147 games in 2006. And fwiw, he played 136 games in 2009.

Oh, I get it. No, you mean career. You just decided to define the cutoff as the absolute maximum to make him look bad.

In any case, your criticism comes down to, "Last year Youkilis hurt his thumb." Now if you have something specific about that you consider a risk then fine. But it's foolish to ignore that's not what it's about but rather that Youkilis is somehow fragile or something.

But ok, but that was for your "starters"; where's the meat of the meal?

It was a response to somebody saying 145 is what they expect from him. I didn't set the arbitrary line, but it does seem to be his max. He's also on the wrong side of 30 and playing a more physically demanding position this year. And it's not just "last year he hurt his thumb". It's "every year he's hurt something"

To be honest I'm sort of playing devil's advocate here, but the fact you have him down for 95/110 is about as crazy as if he got 85/90.
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Re: Kevin Youkilis--fully healthy this year?

Postby Element » Fri Apr 15, 2011 5:25 pm

I'll take the guy that has dual CIF eligibility and is sandwiched some combination of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, A-Gon, Drew etc & while playing half of his games in Fenway over the guy batting leadoff for the lowly Pirates. As much as I like Tabata he can't compare to Youk. Risky for me would be banking on a guy that had only 405 career major league at bats.
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Re: Kevin Youkilis--fully healthy this year?

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Apr 15, 2011 5:43 pm

Youk was a second rounder. Tabata was a 15th rounder. You tell me where the risk is between those two. Obviously I wouldn't choose Tabata if Youk was still on the board, I just happen to think they'll have a similar value this year.
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Re: Kevin Youkilis--fully healthy this year?

Postby Matthias » Fri Apr 15, 2011 5:48 pm

Skin Blues wrote:It was a response to somebody saying 145 is what they expect from him. I didn't set the arbitrary line, but it does seem to be his max. He's also on the wrong side of 30 and playing a more physically demanding position this year. And it's not just "last year he hurt his thumb". It's "every year he's hurt something"

To be honest I'm sort of playing devil's advocate here, but the fact you have him down for 95/110 is about as crazy as if he got 85/90.

I guess I don't really think of playing 145 games as having an injured season; that's 1 DL trip basically or just a few games off here and there.
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Re: Kevin Youkilis--fully healthy this year?

Postby kab21 » Fri Apr 15, 2011 6:04 pm

Skin Blues wrote:It was a response to somebody saying 145 is what they expect from him. I didn't set the arbitrary line, but it does seem to be his max. He's also on the wrong side of 30 and playing a more physically demanding position this year. And it's not just "last year he hurt his thumb". It's "every year he's hurt something"

To be honest I'm sort of playing devil's advocate here, but the fact you have him down for 95/110 is about as crazy as if he got 85/90.


The only part of the equation that is debateable imo is how many games he'll play because I have the same concerns as you about his durability. But he's been crazy productive the last 3 seasons when he added power to his game. .300+BA and a .250 isoP each season. If he gets to 145 games then 95/110 is extremely likely in Boston's lineup (they'll start hitting).
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