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Ironing out a fair trade

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Ironing out a fair trade

Postby thebigcali » Wed Apr 13, 2011 1:31 am

A friend and I have reached an impasse. We've both been long-time lurkers of this forum and website and we've agreed to allow the fantasy baseball geniuses here come to a final conclusion on what is the most fair trade.

12-team roto league: 6x6 (R-HR-RBI-SB-AVG-K & W-L-K-ERA-WHIP-SV)
Deep rosters

My team:

C - CSantana / 1B - RHoward / 2B - RWeeks / 3B - JLopez / SS - SCastro
MIF - KJohnson / CIF - PAlvarez / IF - EAndrus / LF - MHolliday / CF - JWerth
RF - JHeyward / OF - SSChoo / OF - TSnider / UTIL - JLoney / UTIL - OCabrera
SPs - ROswalt, MScherzer, CBillingsley, MBumgarner, MPineda
RPs - HBell, FCordero
Ps - MPineda, EVolquez, KFarnesworth
Bench: CCoghlan, ELongoria, Ad. LaRoche, UJimenez, DAardsma, BMatusz

His team:

C - CIannetta / 1B - AGonzalez / 2B - IKinsler / 3B - RZimmerman / SS - HRamirez
MIF - CFiggins / CIF - IStewart / IF - IDavis / LF - AHuff / CF - ARios
RF - JUpton / OF - JBruce / OF - APagan/ UTIL - FFreeman / UTIL - JKubel
SPs - JJohnson, DPrice, FLiriano, MGarza, JChacin
RPs - CMarmol, FRodriguez
Ps - JAxford, AKennedy, JContreras
Bench: SS AGonzalez, JUribe, HKuroda, TWood, KDrabek

Now basically for my own team, I'm looking to reduce hitter Ks, increase SBs and lower my WHIP/ERA. For him, he wants more a big jump in his hitter numbers R/HR/RBI and a little AVG if possible., he's not too worried about pitching.

THE TRADE

The trade offer is deadlocked, mostly on my part, because I've offered Rickie Weeks, Jayson Werth, Chad Billingsley and Madison Bumgarner FOR Ian Kinsler, Alex Rios, Josh Johnson and Jhoulys Chacin.

We're stuck and it's probably because of Kinsler and I see his point. So how do we fix this, what can we do to help each other out? I think swapping Kinsler for Figgins satisfies things for the most part but it also swings the trade too far in his favor, or am I wrong? What's fair for a 4v4 or 5v5 blockbuster trade?
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Re: Ironing out a fair trade

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Wed Apr 13, 2011 1:53 am

Well, line it up:

Rickie Weeks v Ian Kinsler
Jayson Werth v Alex Rios
Chad Billingsley v Josh Johnson
Madison Bumgarner v Jhoulys Chacin

First of all, let me just get this out of the way, I don't think either of you are really helping your teams with this trade. This is the blockbuster version of a challenge trade, and in general challenge trades are ineffective. You're swapping position for position, and the most likely outcome is that increased production in one area will be balanced by decreased elsewhere, IN THE SAME LINEUP SPOTS. What you gain on the swings you lose on the roundabouts.

That being said, if you really want to do this for some reason, dropping Kinsler down to Figgins unbalances the trade. I'm an M's fan, I've watched him. Figgins might scrape together a useful season but at this point I wouldn't count on it. However I can also see why the team with Kinsler would be against this trade, because in general it favors the side giving up Weeks. Johnson is a top pitcher, Billingsly is more of a no. 2, and in a battle of young up and comers I'm taking Chacin every time. The imbalance in pitching, and downgrading to Weeks, isn't enough to overcome the upside of getting Werth over Rios.

My advice is take a look at both teams, find positions - not stats- where you're weak, and see if you match up as trade partners. A cursory glance at your lineups tells me that your team could use a big bat or two to plug in at UTL (running out Loney and O-Cab at UTL in a 12 team league isn't ideal), and that his team could a decent CI and a better catcher. Your team could also use a stud pitcher.

I would suggest something like Josh Johnson, Jason Kubel and Matt Garza for Carlos Santana, Pedro Alvarez and Jayson Werth. You can sub in different players but that's the general idea. Don't trade the exact same positions and swap guys who are close in value; you won't really upgrade/change your team.
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Re: Ironing out a fair trade

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Wed Apr 13, 2011 1:55 am

Also, I think letting people on the board decide what's the most fair trade is a bad idea. If you can't come to an agreement, it's OK to just walk away. This is a good place for advice, for different perspectives, but no one is going to know your team as well as you do. If a trade doesn't feel right, don't make it, and don't let anyone else convince you that you should.
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Re: Ironing out a fair trade

Postby thebigcali » Wed Apr 13, 2011 1:57 am

I understand the sentiment. But this is a free league, just for fun, working out a deal is fun to us. So it works.
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