J35J wrote:In no particular order, I like...
These guys are first/second rounders now and I don't see why they won't be that or very close to it at 30-32 years old.
Longoria at 30
Troy Tulo at 31
Ryan Braun at 32
Matt Kemp at 31
Joey Votto at 32
That would likely be a solid risk-adjusted list but I can almost guarantee that the top 5 players in baseball in 5 years won't all be over 30.
Looking at fantasy ADPs this year, in the top 12, the only player over 30 is Pujols (the list I have showed: Hanley, Tulo, Miggy, Votto, Longoria, Cargo, Cano, Crawford, Braun, Adrian Gonzalez and David Wright in the top 12)
Now, Holliday, Halladay, Arod, Utley, Hamilton, Teix et all were immediately next off the board, and maybe you'll say that ADP isn't a fair proxy because people always draft younger because they want high upside. But if you look at ESPN's player rater right now, only one of the top 10 is over 30 (Halladay) while Granderson and Bautista are exactly 30. In 2010, Halladay and Pujols (barely 30) were the only players in the top top 13 who were over 30.
So I would be fine assuming that some if not many of those players end up in the top 5 in 5 years, and I do think it's way too aggressive to think that Harper or Trout are top 5 material, but guys like Heyward, Stanton, Rasmus, Strasburg, Kershaw, Moustakas, Rizzo, etc will also be in there as well.