We're all familiar with Liriano's history. In 08'-'09 he was still regaining his stuff and velocity and most view 2010 as the benchmark for future projections. I never said Liriano wasn't a risk - his health and workload (regular season + winter ball) are certainly concerns. But if he is healthy he's an excellent bet for top tier SP numbers.
when he's off he doesn't tough out 6 innings and give up 3 or 4 runs like the top guys. He walks 4- guys, gives up 5-6 runs and doesnt get out of the 3rd.
is anecdotal. Liriano failed to get out of the 3rd inning once in 31 starts in 2010. Most people look at trends and peripheral stats such as K:BB, GB/FB/LD%, HR/FB%, LOB%, among others. You can quote me ERAs and W-L all you want, but those numbers don't tell the whole story. In fact, they don't even tell half of it.