If you have him, he's definitely a good arm to have on your team. If he's a FA, he's definitely a guy you want to Add to your team. If somebody is offering you him via trade, well then that gets more dicey (and you'll want to post your specific question in the Draft, Trade, Waiver Forum at the top for help). His upside is massive and when he's healthy he's typically very very good. He was rough in his first start out, but be patient with him. When he's healthy, he's a great source for strikeouts and solid ratios.
fantasybaseballking wrote:Easily one of the top starters in all baseball. When he's on, he's top 10. Otherwise, at worst, top 30.
Top 30 at his worst? I hope you were kidding. Liriano has crazy good stuff but when he's off he doesn't tough out 6 innings and give up 3 or 4 runs like the top guys. He walks 4- guys, gives up 5-6 runs and doesnt get out of the 3rd. Liriano is good but you are playing with fire if you are putting much faith in him.
fantasybaseballking wrote:Easily one of the top starters in all baseball. When he's on, he's top 10. Otherwise, at worst, top 30.
Top 30 at his worst? I hope you were kidding. Liriano has crazy good stuff but when he's off he doesn't tough out 6 innings and give up 3 or 4 runs like the top guys. He walks 4- guys, gives up 5-6 runs and doesnt get out of the 3rd.
And you are basing this off what? The first week of the season? Liriano is solid as long as he is healthy, and those who want to evaluate his value objectively would be better off ignoring anecdotal evidence like what you just posted.
fantasybaseballking wrote:Liriano is good but you are playing with fire if you are putting much faith in him.
What exactly about his track record suggests he is at all reliable? And I wouldn't care if he had thrown 2 perfect games so far this season my advice would have been exactly the same.
2005 He didnt really pitch except a little relief and he was wild but struck a lot of guys out. 2006 He started 16 games went 12-3 and had a 2.16 era with 144 k's in 121 innings. That's superb, but he blew out his arm doing it. 2007 Out the entire season with TJ surgery. 2008 He started 14 games went 6-4 with a 3.91 era and struck out 67 in 76 innings. A little regression but not a bad semi-comeback, although he was sent back to the minors after a very poor start to his season. 2009 He started 24 games and went 5-13 with a 5.80 era and struck out 122 in 136 innings. Not a very good season and enough of a concern for the Twins that he finished the season as a reliever. 2010 he started 31 games and went 14-10 with a 3.62 era and 201 k's in 191 innings. A very solid season but not an ace, its just good enough for top 20 on the season. 2011 2 bad games, we won't go into that.
So all in all he has started 25 or more games once, won 15 or more games zero times, and has a career era of 4.03 and WHIP of 1.29. I simply don't buy into him at all.
So please point to the part in that timeline where he was top 10, and how he never fell out of the top 30. Please show me where you find the gumption to suggest Liriano is not one of the riskiest players in fantasy. I'm curious because maybe I am missing a lot and should reconsider my opinion of Liriano. I am not trying to be a jerk here but you called me out for not providing any evidence then did the exact same thing. Here is my evidence, I await yours.
We're all familiar with Liriano's history. In 08'-'09 he was still regaining his stuff and velocity and most view 2010 as the benchmark for future projections. I never said Liriano wasn't a risk - his health and workload (regular season + winter ball) are certainly concerns. But if he is healthy he's an excellent bet for top tier SP numbers.
This:
when he's off he doesn't tough out 6 innings and give up 3 or 4 runs like the top guys. He walks 4- guys, gives up 5-6 runs and doesnt get out of the 3rd.
is anecdotal. Liriano failed to get out of the 3rd inning once in 31 starts in 2010. Most people look at trends and peripheral stats such as K:BB, GB/FB/LD%, HR/FB%, LOB%, among others. You can quote me ERAs and W-L all you want, but those numbers don't tell the whole story. In fact, they don't even tell half of it.
I think Liriano is overrated and will tease with his aceness much like Nolasco. He's good and he's definitely worth owning in every format but I don't think he's a top 10 pitcher (or top 6 rd pick).
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by Mr. D » Wed Apr 06, 2011 1:21 pm 
