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Did I PUNT PITCHING? 12team 5x5 H2H Yahoo WHIR

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Did I PUNT PITCHING? 12team 5x5 H2H Yahoo WHIR

Postby blinkuldhc » Fri Apr 01, 2011 9:17 pm

12 team Yahoo mixed league, Head to Head, 5x5 categories, $260 budget for AUCTION draft, 23 players

I spent $21 on pitching, $239 on hitting.

C- J.P. Arencibia ($1)
1B - Albert Pujols ($58)
2B - Ryan Raburn ($9)
3B - Adrian Beltre ($28)
SS - Hanley Ramirez ($56)
OF - Andrew McCutchen ($30)
OF - Matt Kemp ($38)
OF - Jose Tabata ($1)
UTIL - Mike Stanton ($15)
UTIL - Mike Morse ($1)
Bench - Kila Ka'aihue ($2)

SP - Wandy Rodriguez ($2)
SP - Ted Lilly ($2)
RP - Francisco Rodriguez ($3)
RP - Huston Street ($2)
P - Joel Hanrahan ($1)
P - Brian Fuentes ($1)
P - Jose Contreras ($1)
P - C.J. Wilson ($1)
Bench - Jhoulys Chacin ($2)
Bench - Jonathan Sanchez ($3)
Bench - Daniel Hudson ($2)
Bench - Edwin Jackson ($1)

Hitting:


Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez, yum.
McCutchen and Kemp should give me 4-5 categories.
Raburn and Beltre I overspent, yes. But Raburn could get a sneaky 25 HRs at 2B, and Beltre is in a hitters' park.
Stanton is a wild card, but I'm hoping that he hits .265-35-100, which would be fine for UTIL.
Tabata will get me runs and SBs, and maybe average.
Arencibia is legit.
Morse + Ka'aihue is my platoon at UTIL, nothing to whine about.


My pitching
sucks, but I spent $21:

Lilly and Hudson should stabilize WHIP.
Jon Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Jhoulys Chacin should get me the Ks.
Wandy Rodriguez and CJ Wilson should get me solid WHIP/ERA/Ks.
I have 5 closers, though only 3 are permanent. K-Rod, Street, Hanrahan and Fuentes should notch a lot of saves, Contreras is a wild card.



Did I punt pitching completely? I think I could compete at Ks and Saves, but Ws will be difficult. Of course, I'm banking on 4-5 hitting wins each week.
Please rate my team, I've punted pitching (Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Kemp, McCutch, Beltre, and MORE!):
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=426088
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Re: Did I PUNT PITCHING? 12team 5x5 H2H Yahoo WHIR

Postby Andruson » Sat Apr 02, 2011 12:35 pm

You could be way, way worse off. C.J. Wilson kept the retooled Red Sox in check, and he'll step up now that Cliff Lee's gone. It's not a phenomenal pitching staff, but if you can do a trade, you've got more than enough offense in stock to get a decent pitcher without gutting your team. Your offense is applause worthy. Really good stuff.
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Re: Did I PUNT PITCHING? 12team 5x5 H2H Yahoo WHIR

Postby blinkuldhc » Sat Apr 02, 2011 11:12 pm

Thanks, Andruson!

... And here I was yesterday silently patting myself on the back because I thought my pitching staff may not be as bad as I thought:

CJ Wilson, JSanchez, Huston Street and Jose Contreras combined for 13.1 IP, 17 Ks, 2.35 ERA and 1.65 WHIP (no wins), and those are probably my less reliable pitchers.

And then today....

Wandy Rodriguez, Ted Lilly, Daniel Hudson, Francisco Rodriguez combined for 15.2 IP, 15 Ks, 8.62 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, and 1 win. Because of yesterday, I figured I didn't need Ks so I sat Jose Contreras and Edwin Jackson, just to avoid ERA/WHIP disasters. AND OF COURSE, Contreras and Jackson combine for 7 IP, 9 Ks, 2.57 ERA, 1.4 WHIP -- I really could have used the W and the 2.57 ERA.


Anyway, it's going to be a looooooong season with this pitching staff, and the WHIP is going to be a disaster. Although, I like that my pitching staff has combined for 36 IP, 41 Ks already -- that's insane for a bunch of non-elite pitchers.



ANdruson is right, I'll need my offense to carry me. Nice to see Beltre hit a grand slam and Pujols getting back to being Pujols today.
Please rate my team, I've punted pitching (Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Kemp, McCutch, Beltre, and MORE!):
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=426088
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Re: Did I PUNT PITCHING? 12team 5x5 H2H Yahoo WHIR

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Sun Apr 03, 2011 12:28 am

Wait a month before you start coming to conclusions about your players. Your pitching probably isn't as bad as you fear it is nor as good as you hope it could be.
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Re: Did I PUNT PITCHING? 12team 5x5 H2H Yahoo WHIR

Postby blinkuldhc » Sun Apr 03, 2011 3:07 am

lane_anasazi2 wrote:Wait a month before you start coming to conclusions about your players. Your pitching probably isn't as bad as you fear it is nor as good as you hope it could be.


So true... fantasy baseball is about as inconsistent and unpredictable as it gets for fantasy sports.

Do you see any guys on my staff who are likely full-season holds, i.e. guys who I should probably stick with and not drop during slumps? I want to make sure I know whose slumps I should ride out, and whom I should drop if things go sour early.

Honestly, Wandy and Lilly may be the only SP guarantees for the whole season; I can see myself dropping any of the other SP at any point.


Just a sick, sick final line for my pitching staff on Saturday: 17.2 IP, 16 Ks, 1 W, 1 SV, 9.17 ERA, 1.98 WHIP from Wandy, Lilly, Hudson, Huston Street, Fuentes, K-Rod. The problem with the "throw a ton of SP at the wall and see what sticks" approach in H2H is that when you get a ton of innings of bloated ERA/WHIP, it's nearly impossible to bring back down. Jeeeez, 9+ ERA, 2.00 WHIP in 18 IP.


Oh well, I booted ERA and WHIP this week, hopefully I can salvage W, K, SV.
Please rate my team, I've punted pitching (Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Kemp, McCutch, Beltre, and MORE!):
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=426088
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Re: Did I PUNT PITCHING? 12team 5x5 H2H Yahoo WHIR

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Sun Apr 03, 2011 3:49 am

blinkuldhc wrote:So true... fantasy baseball is about as inconsistent and unpredictable as it gets for fantasy sports.


That's the exact opposite of the point I'm trying to make. It only looks inconsistent and unpredictable if you're looking at too small a sample size. The pitchers you're talking about are subject to wide variance from start to start, but when all's said and done their season numbers will tell the story. You'll drive yourself crazy if you obsess over single games.

Like you said, you spent $21 on pitching. If you run these guys out there every start you're probably going to have some terrible ratios. What you need to do is play matchups and selectively start your guys early in the week, and if your ratios are shot already by mid-week you can go ahead and start everyone. Watch the WW, and when a pitcher distinguishes himself enough, grab him, dropping your least-favorite pitcher. I'm probably hanging onto Lilly and Sanchez all season (Lilly's consistency and Sanchez's K-potential are both too good to drop) but everyone else I'd drop without thinking too much about it they're stinking it up.
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Re: Did I PUNT PITCHING? 12team 5x5 H2H Yahoo WHIR

Postby blinkuldhc » Tue Apr 05, 2011 12:12 am

lane_anasazi2 wrote:
blinkuldhc wrote:So true... fantasy baseball is about as inconsistent and unpredictable as it gets for fantasy sports.


That's the exact opposite of the point I'm trying to make. It only looks inconsistent and unpredictable if you're looking at too small a sample size. The pitchers you're talking about are subject to wide variance from start to start, but when all's said and done their season numbers will tell the story. You'll drive yourself crazy if you obsess over single games.

Like you said, you spent $21 on pitching. If you run these guys out there every start you're probably going to have some terrible ratios. What you need to do is play matchups and selectively start your guys early in the week, and if your ratios are shot already by mid-week you can go ahead and start everyone. Watch the WW, and when a pitcher distinguishes himself enough, grab him, dropping your least-favorite pitcher. I'm probably hanging onto Lilly and Sanchez all season (Lilly's consistency and Sanchez's K-potential are both too good to drop) but everyone else I'd drop without thinking too much about it they're stinking it up.


Is it really the opposite point? From what I gathered, you were telling me to not make any rash decisions based on less than a month of performances; I'm pretty sure we agreed.

When I said that MLB/fantasy baseball is "unpredictable," I meant that you can't predict future, full-season performance using April stats as an input. When I said "inconsistent," I meant that what goes on in April won't necessarily be the same in later months -- i.e., performances and production are NOT consistent on a month-to-month basis. My pitching likely won't be as bad as I fear nor as good as I hope, as you say... which basically means that first-week performances won't "predict" future performance because baseball stats/production are not "consistent" week-in, week-out or month-in, month-out.

If what I said was really the "exact opposite" of what you were trying to say, then are you really saying that full-season stats/productivity/performances ARE consistent with and predictable from April stats?
Please rate my team, I've punted pitching (Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Kemp, McCutch, Beltre, and MORE!):
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=426088
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Re: Did I PUNT PITCHING? 12team 5x5 H2H Yahoo WHIR

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Tue Apr 05, 2011 1:05 am

I really don't want to get into semantics argument.

blinkuldhc wrote:When I said that MLB/fantasy baseball is "unpredictable," I meant that you can't predict future, full-season performance using April stats as an input. When I said "inconsistent," I meant that what goes on in April won't necessarily be the same in later months -- i.e., performances and production are NOT consistent on a month-to-month basis.


Maybe that's what you meant, but it's not what you wrote. What you wrote is:

blinkuldhc wrote:So true... fantasy baseball is about as inconsistent and unpredictable as it gets for fantasy sports.


You can't just magically infer all that extra meaning. What you're saying in that sentence is that fantasy baseball is inconsistent and unpredictable compared to other sports. My point was "Wait a month before you start coming to conclusions about your players. Your pitching probably isn't as bad as you fear it is nor as good as you hope it could be." The reason this advice works is that once you have a large enough sample size, you can make reasonable predictions for future performance, usually with a good degree of confidence. In that sense fantasy baseball is predictable. As for "inconsistent," I have no idea what you meant by that. Like, day-to-day, fantasy stats are inconsistent? You do seem kind of obsessed with the ups and downs of the day's games, given how much you posted about your team's numbers.

This is a pretty pointless argument. If you agree with me in the first place, why parse my words and try to make this a debate at all? Come on, read that last line. It's like I'm being cross-examined.

blinkuldhc wrote:are you really saying that full-season stats/productivity/performances ARE consistent with and predictable from April stats?


Do you honestly think that's what I was saying, or are you just trying to trap me in your oh-so-clever verbal web? What's the point?
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Re: Did I PUNT PITCHING? 12team 5x5 H2H Yahoo WHIR

Postby blinkuldhc » Tue Apr 05, 2011 6:27 am

lane_anasazi2 wrote:I really don't want to get into semantics argument.

blinkuldhc wrote:When I said that MLB/fantasy baseball is "unpredictable," I meant that you can't predict future, full-season performance using April stats as an input. When I said "inconsistent," I meant that what goes on in April won't necessarily be the same in later months -- i.e., performances and production are NOT consistent on a month-to-month basis.


Maybe that's what you meant, but it's not what you wrote. What you wrote is:

blinkuldhc wrote:So true... fantasy baseball is about as inconsistent and unpredictable as it gets for fantasy sports.


You can't just magically infer all that extra meaning.

This is a pretty pointless argument. If you agree with me in the first place, why parse my words and try to make this a debate at all? Come on, read that last line. It's like I'm being cross-examined.



Uh.... you kind of DID infer a good amount of your own meaning from my one line. This whole clusterF of a debate started when you took one harmless sentence (in which I cordially agreed with you) from my much-longer post and extrapolated that to some grand point of contention/opposition on my behalf.

At this point, I'm not sure whether we actually agree or not, but you should heed your own advice: if and since I had agreed with you in principle, there was no need for you to initiate this protracted debate.

All I'm saying is that fantasy MLB is the least predictable and consistent of the major fantasy sports, in terms of level of confidence. This is so for samples of ALL sizes. IMO, even 162 games one season isn't exactly a great predictor for the 162 games the next season. If a rookie NFL running back has a great 16-game season, I'm buying his soph season -- I can't say the same for a rookie MLB pitcher, at least not with the same level of confidence.

More on point, one day's worth of stats isn't going to tell me -- i.e. predict -- much about what will go on for the rest of the season. Sure, I posted one-day stats in this thread, but that's mostly seemingly-harmless fodder (in a "LOL, so the crappy pitching begins" fashion). You could "infer" that I wasn't actually drawing serious conclusions off of one-day stats, since I had even asked you which pitchers I should ride out even when slumping. But who knows, maybe you really did think I would seriously draw full-season conclusions from one-day stats.

Besides, WE ALL do this on some level, we all feign conclusions in April that are never 100% serious. If you draft a sleeper and he hits 3 HRs in the first week, you'll say -- whether to yourself or aloud -- "yup, awesome pick" -- and I think we can agree that we can't really conclude whether it was a good pick until the season ends.


Bottom line: don't derail this thread, and definitely don't charge me with derailing this thread -- this all exploded from one seemingly-innocuous sentence of mine.
Please rate my team, I've punted pitching (Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Kemp, McCutch, Beltre, and MORE!):
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=426088
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Re: Did I PUNT PITCHING? 12team 5x5 H2H Yahoo WHIR

Postby blinkuldhc » Sat Apr 16, 2011 10:30 pm

Changed my roster a bit:

C: JP Arencibia
1B; Albert Pujols
2B: Ryan Raburn
3B: Adrian Beltre
SS: Hanley Ramirez
OF: Matt Kemp
OF: Andrew McCutchen
OF: Mike Stanton
UTIL: Jose Tabata
UTIL: Lance Berkman (dropped Mike Morse)

SP: Daniel Hudson
SP: Jhoulys Chacin
RP: Francisco Rodriguez
RP: Joel Hanrahan
P: Huston Street
P: Jose Contreras
P: Sean Burnett (dropped Kila Ka'aihue)
P: Jon Rauch (dropped Brian Fuentes)

P: Wandy Rodriguez
P: Jonathan Sanchez
P: CJ Wilson
P: Michael Pineda (dropped Ted Lilly)
DL: Chris Young (dropped Edwin Jackson)



Thoughts:

1. Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, Mike Stanton have all SUCKED. They're hitting a combined .223 and I spent $157 of my $260 on these 4 players.

2. Andrew McCutchen deserves a separate mention for hitting .196 and stealing exactly zero bases.

3. So that's $187 on 5 guys hitting a combined .218.

4. Much love to Tabata and Kemp for combining for .402-4-12 with 15 SBs.

5. Lance Berkman deserves a separate mention. <3

6. I bet the house on Jhoulys Chacin, drafting him to all my teams, and he is paying off big time so far with 3 wins, 22 IP, 1.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.

7. I'm closing in on 9-1 for the first week, with a 2 SB deficit going into Sunday.
Please rate my team, I've punted pitching (Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Kemp, McCutch, Beltre, and MORE!):
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=426088
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