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Kila Kaaihue. 2011 Breakout?

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Kila Kaaihue. 2011 Breakout?

Postby jruffus1 » Mon Mar 28, 2011 8:09 pm

I am one of the few people (at least within my range of friends) who believes that Kila has REAL potential to have a breakout season this year. So far his spring training stats are making me believe that even more, having around 8 HRs and approximately 19 RBIs. What do you guys think?
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Re: Kila Kaaihue. 2011 Breakout?

Postby blinkuldhc » Thu Mar 31, 2011 3:31 am

I'm perhaps a bit too optimistic on Kila, as he's my starting first baseman after I got him for $1..... but yeah, I think he'll breakout this season. Why?

1. He's hitting 5th, behind Billy Butler. Yes, it's still KCR and Butler is a GIDP machine, but I think Kila will get at least 85-90 RBI, and could crack 100 RBI.

Think about it. Butler has 91 -- yes 91 -- doubles in the last 2 seasons, which is insane. If Butler gets 45-50 doubles again, then about 10% of the time Kila will already have a RISP merely from Butler's doubles. That won't count all the OTHER traditional RISP scenarios. If Kila hits .300 after Butler doubles, that's already 15-18 RBI just from driving Butler in.

2. He tore it up in spring training. Yeah, ST numbers don't usually matter, but they certainly can't hurt. He's seeing the ball well and more importantly, his confidence is improving.

3. He has a great approach. The thing that I love most about Kila is his BB numbers. In his minor league career, he has a 16.2% BB/PA rate, with 673BB/689K, which is outstanding for a big XBH guy like him. Basically, his approach should help prevent prolonged hitting slumps. Never bet against a guy with that type of approach.

4. He's a 27-year old 6'3" 233 lefty. That size, that approach, that age, in that batting slot..... I'm banking on a breakout.

My projections:

Middle/Target: .285, 90 R, 26 HR, 90 RBI
Bust: .260, 70 R, 18 HR, 72 RBI
Breakout: .295, 98 R, 32 HR, 110 RBI
Please rate my team, I've punted pitching (Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Kemp, McCutch, Beltre, and MORE!):
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=426088
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Re: Kila Kaaihue. 2011 Breakout?

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Thu Mar 31, 2011 4:05 am

Glad you're optimistic, but let me just waive the cautionary flag here. We've always known he can hit minor league pitching, and in ST you face a lot of minor league pitching. He's finally getting playing time but he might not have an extremely long leash. I think he's definitely got the potential to breakout, but counting on a breakout isn't wise. You never want to set your team up so that you NEED so-and-so to break out, and if he's your starting 1B that's what you're doing. Your "bust" line of .260, 70 R, 18 HR, 72 RBI vastly underestimates the quality of MLB pitching and how lost Quadruple-A guys can be against it. Again, I'm not saying he will bust. In fact, I think he'll have a decent/good year, a year you'd be happy out of a CI spot in a deep league. Just don't pencil him in for 30 HR.
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Re: Kila Kaaihue. 2011 Breakout?

Postby CharlatanSin » Thu Mar 31, 2011 10:21 am

blinkuldhc, I don't see his batting average approaching your optimistic projection, or even your middle one. I'm looking at .270 as his ceiling, and he'll probably end up in the .255-.265 range. Of course, as you alluded to, that bad BA is largely offset in OBP leagues, making him a more valuable asset there.

That being said, I think the counting stats on your middle projection are spot on (well, fewer R.) I'm not building my team around needing 25-30 HR from Kila Monster, but I certainly would be personally disappointed if he didn't end up around there.
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Re: Kila Kaaihue. 2011 Breakout?

Postby TexArcher » Thu Mar 31, 2011 4:05 pm

I think he's going to hit a LOT of homers, maybe as many as 35, but I don't see him batting over .265, and it wouldn't shock me if he was in the .240's. Adam Dunn with fewer RBI and runs.

He'll get that average up eventually, but I don't think it happens this year.
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Re: Kila Kaaihue. 2011 Breakout?

Postby rocknje » Thu Mar 31, 2011 8:02 pm

Not today, but I am on the Kila bandwagon.
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