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Drew Stubbs - BUST?

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Drew Stubbs - BUST?

Postby Sticky Spice » Tue Mar 22, 2011 10:30 pm

I'm a fan. I have to be to an extent because I've got him on my deep keeper. But that also means I was paying attention last year when he almost got sent down for not hitting - only some OF injuries kept him up (if I recall).

This spring Stubbs is hitting something like .214, but the alarming part is he's got about 20 K's and 2 BB's (including his 4 K's today). It doesn't seem like he's grown at all from last year in his approach, his eye, his ability to make contact - whatever. It just seems like his fantasy value is far more than his real baseball value. If he continues to not be able to hit, not only will he not be leadoff, but I think you gotta wonder if he could be a guy that gets platooned or sent down.

Yeah, it's spring. And with what they're hoping he'll provide he'll likely have a very long leash that will likely get into one of his hot streaks. But this, unfortunately, is not unusual for him. I hope something clicks and clicks fast, because I need him again this year.
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Re: Drew Stubbs - BUST?

Postby ramble2 » Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:05 pm

Well, it's Spring, so be patient. But he doesn't have much of a MLB track record, so, we'll see. I've thought he's been overrated going into the season. One of those overhyped sleeper types. If you can get him at a good value, great, but I wouldn't want to rely on him as my 1st or 2nd OF.
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Re: Drew Stubbs - BUST?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:24 pm

Overhyped sleeper that isn't a very good hitter. Mediocre in AA, mediocre in AAA, and mediocre in MLB. And it's not like he was too young for any of those leagues while he played in them. I don't think you can expect any more than what he did last year, with the risk that he either gets moved down in the order and/or loses playing time. Really, how much better is he than current 4th OF Fred Lewis? Not much. If you go into it knowing all of that and are willing to take the hit in BA for some steals and a bit of pop, then you'll be fine.
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Re: Drew Stubbs - BUST?

Postby MTUCache » Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:26 pm

Stubbs officially has me pissed off this year... not because of his Spring, I could care less about his numbers in ST.

I'm talking about the bandwagon-jumping, crazy over-hype machine that every fantasy "expert" has been shoveling on this guy since February.

You know it's officially at critical mass for the casual player when Yahoo has him ranked ahead of Jayson Werth right now on their Mock draft board. I'm as big of an "upside" guy as anybody, but when this guy is getting drafted in the sixth round things are getting way out of hand. He was a value-pick in the teens. He broke even around the 9th round. Anything higher than that and you're paying for numbers he hasn't produced yet. Serious BJ Upton territory here.
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Re: Drew Stubbs - BUST?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:34 pm

MTUCache wrote:Stubbs officially has me pissed off this year... not because of his Spring, I could care less about his numbers in ST.

I'm talking about the bandwagon-jumping, crazy over-hype machine that every fantasy "expert" has been shoveling on this guy since February.

You know it's officially at critical mass for the casual player when Yahoo has him ranked ahead of Jayson Werth right now on their Mock draft board. I'm as big of an "upside" guy as anybody, but when this guy is getting drafted in the sixth round things are getting way out of hand. He was a value-pick in the teens. He broke even around the 9th round. Anything higher than that and you're paying for numbers he hasn't produced yet. Serious BJ Upton territory here.

His average draft round is ~13 right now. This is according to Mock Draft Central's numbers for both 5x5 Roto and Yahoo Style mock drafts over the past week. Which is about where I think he should go. Funston having him at #49 on his "Big Board" today is obviously ridiculous, but I don't think that's the general consensus. It does seem that there are a strange amount of people abnormally high on him, though.
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Re: Drew Stubbs - BUST?

Postby CBMGreatOne » Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:40 pm

MTUCache wrote:Stubbs officially has me pissed off this year... not because of his Spring, I could care less about his numbers in ST.

I'm talking about the bandwagon-jumping, crazy over-hype machine that every fantasy "expert" has been shoveling on this guy since February.

You know it's officially at critical mass for the casual player when Yahoo has him ranked ahead of Jayson Werth right now on their Mock draft board. I'm as big of an "upside" guy as anybody, but when this guy is getting drafted in the sixth round things are getting way out of hand. He was a value-pick in the teens. He broke even around the 9th round. Anything higher than that and you're paying for numbers he hasn't produced yet. Serious BJ Upton territory here.


Funny you mention BJ Upton. I was all over Stubbs all offseason as a guy I was targeting, but as my draft approach, I started thinking that Upton might be an equally good option. The hype machine hasn't been as fired up on BJ as it was on Stubbs so I think BJ will usually come a little cheaper, and I got him in my draft for cheaper. They bring roughly the same thing to the table.

Straight up are you taking Stubbs or Upton? and is it close?
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Re: Drew Stubbs - BUST?

Postby kab21 » Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:57 pm

Skin Blues wrote:His average draft round is ~13 right now. This is according to Mock Draft Central's numbers for both 5x5 Roto and Yahoo Style mock drafts over the past week. Which is about where I think he should go. Funston having him at #49 on his "Big Board" today is obviously ridiculous, but I don't think that's the general consensus. It does seem that there are a strange amount of people abnormally high on him, though.


R&C has his MDP at 95 while Upton's is at 71. If I want a player like that I'll take Rios at 59 but otherwise I'm taking almost all pitchers in the 5-10th rds because that is where the value is. I'll take a Pagan type later and be happy.
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Re: Drew Stubbs - BUST?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:58 pm

Stubbs will Chris Davis
Image

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Re: Drew Stubbs - BUST?

Postby MTUCache » Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:35 am

CBMGreatOne wrote:Straight up are you taking Stubbs or Upton? and is it close?

If I have the choice? Neither.

I'm not taking any guys who hit less than .260 this season (unless they're named Mark Reynolds and I didn't get a 3B in the first four rounds). Period. Especially with speed guys... the 20/30 seasons these guys could put up (at .240 or so) aren't going to do me much good when I can find a guy 8+ rounds later who can give me just a shade less HR with a .280 (Tabata@195/Torres@200) or could double their SBs on the season with a .280 (Rajai Davis@172).

Or, better yet, I take a guy who could has put up 20/20 seasons nine times already, including one 30/30 and one 30/40 season. Sure, he's older than dirt, but if he's still projected for 90/18/95/25/.270, who am I to snub my nose at Abreu when his ADP is 137 and he's going five rounds after these kids??
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Re: Drew Stubbs - BUST?

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:05 am

I think he'll be fine but he is overrated as well, the power really came out of nowhere and seemed like a hot streak more than true talent.
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