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Make The Pick - #4 spot

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#4?

Joey Votto
23
35%
Troy Tulowitzki
23
35%
Ryan Braun
10
15%
Carl Crawford
2
3%
Evan Longoria
5
8%
Carlos Gonzalez
2
3%
David Wright
0
No votes
Adrian Gonzalez
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 65

Re: Make The Pick - #4 spot

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Mar 22, 2011 1:50 pm

I'd like to hear what kind of numbers the Tulowitzki people are expecting. He seems to be overrated everywhere I look but I'm not sure if it's people expecting too much of him, or people putting too much weight on positional scarcity. I'm thinking 30-95-100-15-.290. About the same as Longoria and Braun. He's capable of more, judging by the outburst in September, but he's also capable of a lot less, judging by the other 4 months he was healthy.
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Re: Make The Pick - #4 spot

Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Mar 22, 2011 1:55 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I'd like to hear what kind of numbers the Tulowitzki people are expecting. He seems to be overrated everywhere I look but I'm not sure if it's people expecting too much of him, or people putting too much weight on positional scarcity. I'm thinking 30-95-100-15-.290.

30-100-110-15-.300 for me. Part of it is the position scarcity. SS seems pretty ugly and in most drafts I've seen SS are going off the board 2 rounds before I would want them.
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Re: Make The Pick - #4 spot

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Mar 22, 2011 2:04 pm

I agree, SS are going too early. So isn't the logical response to zig when everybody else zags, instead of pre-emptively zagging? Guys like Jeter, Rollins, Andrus, and even Tulowitzki are going way too early and much better hitters are being passed on. I'll settle for a small profit from a bland SS like Tejada or Uribe if it means I don't have to reach to get a better one.
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Re: Make The Pick - #4 spot

Postby AEMRICH » Tue Mar 22, 2011 2:07 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I'd like to hear what kind of numbers the Tulowitzki people are expecting. He seems to be overrated everywhere I look but I'm not sure if it's people expecting too much of him, or people putting too much weight on positional scarcity. I'm thinking 30-95-100-15-.290. About the same as Longoria and Braun. He's capable of more, judging by the outburst in September, but he's also capable of a lot less, judging by the other 4 months he was healthy.


My take in the first round is that you are going to get a good player no matter where you draft. Of course first round picks cannot make your season however they can break a season. Longoria, IMO, is a much safer pick at 4 than Tulo using the reasoning of a 1st round pick breaking a season. Sure Tulo could end up putting up better numbers at year end than Longoria but I would say he has a higher chance of putting up worse numbers and breaking a season.
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Re: Make The Pick - #4 spot

Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Mar 22, 2011 2:11 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I agree, SS are going too early. So isn't the logical response to zig when everybody else zags, instead of pre-emptively zagging? Guys like Jeter, Rollins, Andrus, and even Tulowitzki are going way too early and much better hitters are being passed on. I'll settle for a small profit from a bland SS like Tejada or Uribe if it means I don't have to reach to get a better one.

The thing is I don't consider Tulo a reach. At worst he is a late 1st rounder IMO. If I jump the gun half a dozen spots and that saves me from Tejada or Uribe then so be it.
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Re: Make The Pick - #4 spot

Postby lastingsgriller » Tue Mar 22, 2011 2:50 pm

I also am in the Longoria boat here. I love Tulo here as well, but I just don't think we've seen everything Longoria has to give us. I will concede, though, that I don't think the steals are real. I think he's more like a 7-10 SB type of guy.

I think you should be able to expect .290 avg, 115 RBI, 30hr, 100 r, 8 SB

with potential for something crazy like .310, 125 RBI, 38 hr, 112 r, 10 SB.


maybe I'm just crazy, but I feel like we've bearly scratched the surfaceof Longoria's potential.
besides, 3B is shallow too..
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Re: Make The Pick - #4 spot

Postby kweiss » Tue Mar 22, 2011 4:25 pm

Joey Votto for me.

I don't believe in position scarcity early in drafts, and he's the safest bet to put up the biggest numbers.
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Re: Make The Pick - #4 spot

Postby moochman » Tue Mar 22, 2011 4:55 pm

kweiss wrote:Joey Votto for me.

I don't believe in position scarcity early in drafts, and he's the safest bet to put up the biggest numbers.



Yup. Like Votto to post better power numbers and may add in a dozen bonus steals. Early in first round its all about power numbers, position scarcity is second to category scarcity this early. Albert, Miggy, and Votto would be my first three off the board.
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Re: Make The Pick - #4 spot

Postby kab21 » Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:30 pm

tbh - I haven't heard an argument to convince me that one player is the way to go here. The best situation would be to not get the 4the pick and end up in the 6th-8th range and let someone else make your decision.

If you want steals then go with Crawford, if you want a SS then go with Tulo, if you want the best hitter then go with Votto or Braun and finally if you want a 3Bman that will almost match Votto/Braun then go with Longoria/Wright.

I picked Tulo here but rather unconvincingly since it's pretty much a draw imo. I do think positional scarcity should be a factor and I outlined a case that can be made for it in the voting for the third spot. And the case gets better when compared vs Votto/Braun.
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Re: Make The Pick - #4 spot

Postby CBMGreatOne » Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:52 pm

kab21 wrote:tbh - I haven't heard an argument to convince me that one player is the way to go here. The best situation would be to not get the 4the pick and end up in the 6th-8th range and let someone else make your decision.

If you want steals then go with Crawford, if you want a SS then go with Tulo, if you want the best hitter then go with Votto or Braun and finally if you want a 3Bman that will almost match Votto/Braun then go with Longoria/Wright.

I picked Tulo here but rather unconvincingly since it's pretty much a draw imo. I do think positional scarcity should be a factor and I outlined a case that can be made for it in the voting for the third spot. And the case gets better when compared vs Votto/Braun.


I agree with this. In a snake, I wouldn't want the #4 pick because there are such similar players from about 4-10. I think if I absolutely had to make the pick, I'd probably go with Votto, Crawford, or Tulo (and I have no particular problem with Longoria, Gonzo, Wright) . The shallower the league, the more inclined I'd be to go with Tulo, the deeper the league, the more inclined I'd be to go with Crawford. Votto slots right in there with both. For me, Braun isn't a consideration at this point. Someone suggested that there would be a 20 HR difference between he and Crawford this year--- I think it will be a heck of a lot more like a 10 HR difference (the same as last year). Crawford protects batting average (very well), contributes in all categories, and is about as safe as a first round pick as you could possibly make.

Tulo on the other hand is so much better than the #3 SS that in a 10 team league, I think he'd be the pick. There are so many quality 1B/OF players to go around when they're only split between 10 teams that in this case position scarcity becomes important enough to mitigate the risk involved.
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