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UPDATED: 8 team H2H, help out, WHIR

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Re: UPDATED: 8 team H2H, help out, WHIR

Postby Los Gringos » Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:25 pm

I had an interesting discovery in my Yahoo normal 8 team H2H league, where I found out we can trade draft picks for next season. This is a league with friends, and this is our 6th year playing... so there will definitely be another league next year (we play re-draft).

Here is an idea I had for a trade and would like insight.

I give: OF Chris Young and 1st round pick
I get: OF Carl Crawford and 3rd round pick

What do you think?!
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Re: UPDATED: 8 team H2H, help out, WHIR

Postby Relddem » Thu Mar 24, 2011 12:40 am

Honestly, no offense, I'm not too crazy about it. You have a number of guys I have pegged as overrated. Posey and Andrus both stand out, and Bautista is pretty risky for his typical draft position. If these guys fell below their ADP I like them, but they're not guys I would take unless they fell. I do like Youk and Pedroia, especially in a shallow league like this. There's a decent dropoff at third base after Youk, and Pedroia offers the kind of bounceback upside that could give him great value at a position that has a surprisingly high replacement level. The outfield is solid but not spectacular. I'm a bit worried about Werth's power now that he's out of CBP and has to face the Phillies ridiculous rotation instead of the Nationals. Young and Gardner should both be solid, but neither is likely to be a top-10 outfielder. You really don't need Ackley. There are more established 2B upside fliers that I'm sure are on the wire in a league like this that have considerably more short term upside. Ackley's not a guy I'm even targeting in deeper mixed leagues if they're redrafts.

I do love your pitching staff, but definitely make the swaps you had in mind. There should be lots of deep SP you can always keep on a watch list. I love Hamels this year, I think he's a bit undervalued, and Felix is obvious a top-5 SP.

I've never done an 8-team league so my advice could be way off, but my sense is that as long as you don't torch the first few rounds you can work the wire and build a contender. You can certainly do that with this team. In terms of advice, the best I can give is don't get too attached to Bautista and Andrus. They're both guys who have downside that could take them outside the Top 8 at their positions.
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Re: UPDATED: 8 team H2H, help out, WHIR

Postby Los Gringos » Thu Mar 24, 2011 1:01 am

Relddem wrote:Honestly, no offense, I'm not too crazy about it. You have a number of guys I have pegged as overrated. Posey and Andrus both stand out, and Bautista is pretty risky for his typical draft position. If these guys fell below their ADP I like them, but they're not guys I would take unless they fell. I do like Youk and Pedroia, especially in a shallow league like this. There's a decent dropoff at third base after Youk, and Pedroia offers the kind of bounceback upside that could give him great value at a position that has a surprisingly high replacement level. The outfield is solid but not spectacular. I'm a bit worried about Werth's power now that he's out of CBP and has to face the Phillies ridiculous rotation instead of the Nationals. Young and Gardner should both be solid, but neither is likely to be a top-10 outfielder. You really don't need Ackley. There are more established 2B upside fliers that I'm sure are on the wire in a league like this that have considerably more short term upside. Ackley's not a guy I'm even targeting in deeper mixed leagues if they're redrafts.

I do love your pitching staff, but definitely make the swaps you had in mind. There should be lots of deep SP you can always keep on a watch list. I love Hamels this year, I think he's a bit undervalued, and Felix is obvious a top-5 SP.

I've never done an 8-team league so my advice could be way off, but my sense is that as long as you don't torch the first few rounds you can work the wire and build a contender. You can certainly do that with this team. In terms of advice, the best I can give is don't get too attached to Bautista and Andrus. They're both guys who have downside that could take them outside the Top 8 at their positions.


Thanks for the response. But I guess we can't all agree. I think Andrus, Posey and Bautista will all have solid years. I am more shaky on Bautista, but am not too worried. Posey will be a top 3 hitting catcher this year along with Mauer and McCann. And Andrus will either do spectacular or average. And in the case of being average, I have Nishioka on the bench who could definitely have a great year. I agree with Ackley... its a situation where with my last pick I wanted to grab a maybe player... but now is not the time. I will go with the wire and pick up Mike Stanton.
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Re: UPDATED: 8 team H2H, help out, WHIR

Postby Relddem » Thu Mar 24, 2011 1:41 am

Los Gringos wrote:I had an interesting discovery in my Yahoo normal 8 team H2H league, where I found out we can trade draft picks for next season. This is a league with friends, and this is our 6th year playing... so there will definitely be another league next year (we play re-draft).

Here is an idea I had for a trade and would like insight.

I give: OF Chris Young and 1st round pick
I get: OF Carl Crawford and 3rd round pick

What do you think?!


I would definitely take the Crawford end of that trade if you don't mind being at a disadvantage next year. I think the total value is definitely huge for you. I have Crawford in the 8-12 range overall this year so even in a league like this he's a fringe first rounder.

Los Gringos wrote:
Relddem wrote:Honestly, no offense, I'm not too crazy about it. You have a number of guys I have pegged as overrated. Posey and Andrus both stand out, and Bautista is pretty risky for his typical draft position. If these guys fell below their ADP I like them, but they're not guys I would take unless they fell. I do like Youk and Pedroia, especially in a shallow league like this. There's a decent dropoff at third base after Youk, and Pedroia offers the kind of bounceback upside that could give him great value at a position that has a surprisingly high replacement level. The outfield is solid but not spectacular. I'm a bit worried about Werth's power now that he's out of CBP and has to face the Phillies ridiculous rotation instead of the Nationals. Young and Gardner should both be solid, but neither is likely to be a top-10 outfielder. You really don't need Ackley. There are more established 2B upside fliers that I'm sure are on the wire in a league like this that have considerably more short term upside. Ackley's not a guy I'm even targeting in deeper mixed leagues if they're redrafts.

I do love your pitching staff, but definitely make the swaps you had in mind. There should be lots of deep SP you can always keep on a watch list. I love Hamels this year, I think he's a bit undervalued, and Felix is obvious a top-5 SP.

I've never done an 8-team league so my advice could be way off, but my sense is that as long as you don't torch the first few rounds you can work the wire and build a contender. You can certainly do that with this team. In terms of advice, the best I can give is don't get too attached to Bautista and Andrus. They're both guys who have downside that could take them outside the Top 8 at their positions.


Thanks for the response. But I guess we can't all agree. I think Andrus, Posey and Bautista will all have solid years. I am more shaky on Bautista, but am not too worried. Posey will be a top 3 hitting catcher this year along with Mauer and McCann. And Andrus will either do spectacular or average. And in the case of being average, I have Nishioka on the bench who could definitely have a great year. Ackley was a last pick in the draft, and knowing that the wire will be filled with decent OF's.. I felt it worth to gamble a little on a guy who could come up big. If not, then I wasted a BN spot that can easily be recovered.

Anyone with any advice on my trade idea?


Yeah, I'm most open to being wrong about Posey. I just think in general he's being overrated based on a fairly limited sample size. Sophmore slumps happen, and catchers have less impact on stats than any other position so I find their scarcity issue overrated. I did draft McCann in a few leagues last year, but this year I've made it a point not to draft a catcher before the 5th round (and that only if McCann falls that far, Posey and Mauer would obviously be gold there but they never fall that far, and I'm basically ignoring V-Mart unless he falls further, which he doesn't). More often I'm either taking Santana in the 6th round or Soto somewhere in the 9th-11th. I really don't see a huge value difference between Santana and Posey, Posey's just getting the hype because he had one off-the-charts month and a ROY award last year. Santana won't have Posey's average, but his walk rate is better which will help keep him relevant in R even in a week lineup, and he even steals a few bases, which is sneaky valuable from a catcher. I also think he has a bit more pop. I also think Soto is only a half-step down from either of them. He's basically Posey minus .010 points of batting average or so, maybe a touch more but he also probably has a touch more power and a favorable home park, he just doesn't have Santana's few extra gravy SBs. IMO, he's the best overall value at C on the board this year, and he'll even be relevant in shallower leagues. I think he'll wind up a Top 5 catcher. I think Posey will be better, just not 7 rounds better.

But, in a shallower league, the replacement level is completely different. Assuming Soto got drafted, there's a pretty steep dropoff after him. In that case, I'd pay for certainty, I just don't think Posey offers that in the same way Mauer and McCann do. He certainly has the upside to be the #1 catcher this year, but he could also be just a bit above average (or a bit below in a shallower format).

With Andrus, he's a one category stud, and his SB help is almost entirely canceled out by his complete lack of pop. I mean, if he was stealing bases like Jose Reyes was three years ago, fine. But he's not doing that, his ceiling is really in the 40-45 range. Pair that with a pedestrian average and a HR total that could easily wind up below 5 and I just don't see what all the fuss is about. The amount he hurts you in HR and RBI basically cancel out the amount he helps you in SB and R, and that's assuming he's at the top of the Texas lineup. If he winds up at the bottom, he doesn't even really help you in R, and he becomes a pretty fringey player in a shallow format. In an eight team league, if I missed on Hanley, Tulo, and Reyes, I would probably have punted SS. Let someone else grab Rollins, Jeter, and Andrus. Maybe I'd draft someone like Alexei if he fell just a bit. If not, I'd be perfectly happen with my pick of the scrubs. There's really not a huge dropoff between Rollins/Jeter/Andrus/Alexei and Drew/Furcal/Desmond/Castro. I bet by the end of the year, those two tiers are pretty jumbled up with at least two of the second group jumping up into the first group in the rankings.

I also do like Nishioka, but I don't think he's particularly draftable in a shallow league like this. His versatility is nice and all, but he's far more likely to be Kaz Matsui than Ichiro. I suppose his upside is fairly interesting if its like .290-10-30, but that's likely just wishcasting, he could just as easily go .260-5-15. Don't get me wrong, I'm all over him at the end of deeper leagues, but I've done nine 12-team drafts so far and I've only once seen him drafted before the 18th round, and that was in the 13th round at pick #150 overall.
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Re: UPDATED: 8 team H2H, help out, WHIR

Postby Los Gringos » Thu Mar 24, 2011 11:40 am

Another update. I have Mike Stanton now instead of Ackley. I also don't believe I will get the trade, but it was worth a shot. What do you think of my team now with the recent updates?
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Re: UPDATED: 8 team H2H, help out, WHIR

Postby Samwisebu » Thu Mar 24, 2011 12:27 pm

what cats does your league have? I'd try and package Young and Gregg for someone like Rios in your league. Or id try and trade young for Rasmus plus a reliever. Also, id keep an eye on Kimbrel in your league because he should get 20 or so saves and also hell carry a ridiculous k rate.
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Re: UPDATED: 8 team H2H, help out, WHIR

Postby Los Gringos » Thu Mar 24, 2011 12:38 pm

We play standard 5x5 scoring. R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
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Re: UPDATED: 8 team H2H, help out, WHIR

Postby Los Gringos » Thu Mar 24, 2011 4:02 pm

bump1
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Re: UPDATED: 8 team H2H, help out, WHIR

Postby fittsrk » Fri Mar 25, 2011 12:11 am

Not a bad team by any stretch. I do think that your outfield is a little weak, but in an 8 team league, that can be extremely easy to overcome as unless you have 25 person rosters, their should be some solid guys that will have great years available. My advice to you, keep your eyes peeled to the wire. I would not trade any of your pitching as I feel that is your strength. Hope this helps and have a great year...
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Re: UPDATED: 8 team H2H, help out, WHIR

Postby Los Gringos » Fri Mar 25, 2011 12:54 am

fittsrk wrote:Not a bad team by any stretch. I do think that your outfield is a little weak, but in an 8 team league, that can be extremely easy to overcome as unless you have 25 person rosters, their should be some solid guys that will have great years available. My advice to you, keep your eyes peeled to the wire. I would not trade any of your pitching as I feel that is your strength. Hope this helps and have a great year...


So, my outfield is made up of Bautista, Chris Young, Werth, Gardner, and Stanton... any suggestions on how to improve it? Thanks for the response
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