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HELP! Liriano in the 14th, Latos 19th, Marmol 16th, Kershaw7

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HELP! Liriano in the 14th, Latos 19th, Marmol 16th, Kershaw7

Postby Nyger Morgan MD » Mon Mar 21, 2011 8:58 pm

10 team 7 x 7 mixed keeper league in the last of the 3rd year. Extra categories are OPS and DOUBLES and WHIP and K/9. Getting the 10th pick in the draft, which 4 players of these 6 would you keep:

Francisco Liriano in the 14th round
Mat Latos in the 19th
Clayton Kershaw in the 7th
Carlos Marmol in the 16th
Hanley Ramirez in the 1st (with the 10th pick)
Gordon Beckham (25th)

*I'm Already keeping Andrew McCutchen in the 25th and don't want to go too pitcher heavy so thinking of Hanley at the end of the first for position scarcity and likely top 2 production at the end of the 1st round. All these pitchers are great for K/9 league, especially Marmol and if the obvious strategy was to go for straight round value Kershaw would be the least valuable in the 7th but I'm worried about Latos this year regressing significantly and his spring struggles foreshadow this coming while keeping Kershaw could mean getting a true elite ace in the 7th round. What would you do?
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Re: HELP! Liriano in the 14th, Latos 19th, Marmol 16th, Kers

Postby Knighthammer » Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:07 pm

Nyger Morgan MD wrote:10 team 7 x 7 mixed keeper league in the last of the 3rd year. Extra categories are OPS and DOUBLES and WHIP and K/9. Getting the 10th pick in the draft, which 4 players of these 6 would you keep:

Francisco Liriano in the 14th round ;-D
Mat Latos in the 19th
Clayton Kershaw in the 7th ;-D
Carlos Marmol in the 16th ;-D
Hanley Ramirez in the 1st (with the 10th pick) ;-D
Gordon Beckham (25th)

*I'm Already keeping Andrew McCutchen in the 25th and don't want to go too pitcher heavy so thinking of Hanley at the end of the first for position scarcity and likely top 2 production at the end of the 1st round. All these pitchers are great for K/9 league, especially Marmol and if the obvious strategy was to go for straight round value Kershaw would be the least valuable in the 7th but I'm worried about Latos this year regressing significantly and his spring struggles foreshadow this coming while keeping Kershaw could mean getting a true elite ace in the 7th round. What would you do?


I'm also worried about Latos this year... so much so that I avoided him this year. Liriano, Kershae & Marmol great in K/9 league & as you said, Hanley for position scarcity. Good Luck!!!

See mine: viewtopic.php?t=424467
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Re: HELP! Liriano in the 14th, Latos 19th, Marmol 16th, Kers

Postby Nyger Morgan MD » Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:25 pm

Glad that vibe is out there. But Latos could also be huge trade value?
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Re: HELP! Liriano in the 14th, Latos 19th, Marmol 16th, Kers

Postby Knighthammer » Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:34 pm

Nyger Morgan MD wrote:Glad that vibe is out there. But Latos could also be huge trade value?


That depends on how others perceive him. He was money last year in limited innings. I'm concerned how he will do with a huge increase in innings this year. Will he hit the wall half way thru? If any of the other managers are Pads fans.... :-D

Thanks for mine, but one thing... look at the trade offer I made & comment on the fairness of it.
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Re: HELP! Liriano in the 14th, Latos 19th, Marmol 16th, Kers

Postby fizz » Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:37 pm

Nyger Morgan MD wrote:Glad that vibe is out there. But Latos could also be huge trade value?


Say what you will about Matthew Berry, but he makes a point here:

50. Last season, the league average for BABIP among pitchers was .293.
51. Mat Latos' was .273
52. Latos increased his innings pitched by 61 1/3 last season.
53. Latos' ERA in his final seven starts last season was 5.66.
54. Steven Glasser of ESPN Stats & Information looked at pitchers who pitched at least 100 innings one season and then increased that total by over 50 the following year. Over the past five years, 37 pitchers fit the criteria.
55. Of those 37 … 26 pitched fewer innings and 15 pitched over 50 innings less, 21 saw an increase in ERA, 20 saw their K/9 rate drop and 19 of them saw their WHIP increase. Of course, two of them (Tim Lincecum and Greinke) also won the Cy Young. But even if Latos doesn't wear down and performs at a high level, it's worth noting …
56. The Padres' offense was just 22nd in runs scored with Adrian Gonzalez. (See fact No. 3).

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseb ... 1_tmrfacts


It might not be indicative of Latos individually, but it's worth noting I think.

Going strictly for value, you're probably best off with Latos, Liriano, Marmol and Beckham, but I don't know if I'd be comfortable with those 4 off the bat. I definitely prefer keeping batters over pitchers.

If I were you' I'd probably keep:

Hanley (unless you can reasonably assume everyone else will keep a first rounder. I'm not sure it's worth the gamble though)
Kershaw
Liriano
Beckham (but if you don't think he'll turn the corner, go Marmol).
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Re: HELP! Liriano in the 14th, Latos 19th, Marmol 16th, Kers

Postby HOOTIE » Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:54 pm

Hanley
Marmol
Kershaw
Beckham
Smells Like Teen Spirit
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Re: HELP! Liriano in the 14th, Latos 19th, Marmol 16th, Kers

Postby sigriffey » Tue Mar 22, 2011 12:41 am

Liriano, Kershaw, Hanley and Beckham
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