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Daily SP Matchup Ratings

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Daily SP Matchup Ratings

Postby MTUCache » Mon Mar 21, 2011 5:09 pm

I'm sure many people around here will remember back (three years ago?) there was a member who posted daily topics ranking the SP Matchups each day. Hopefully somebody can refresh my memory as to who that was (and whether or not they're still posting here).

These rankings were given on an A-F scale, and based upon several different metrics. I'm not sure if this was a quantitative computed analysis or if this was done purely subjectively after taking several variables into account.

I may be interested in doing something similar this year, assuming that I feel I can provide the same level of competence. So... does anyone know of the variables he took into account in order to formulate those rankings (i.e. pitcher stats vs. opposing offense, park factors, individual batter/pitcher numbers, pitcher's last five outings, etc) and where those numbers were garnered from? I'm assuming that there's at least some automation that was going into that process and he wasn't evaluating all of these things in his own head every day (although, I would probably respect him even more because of that, I just don't have that kind of time).

That was easily one of the most useful tools that I've run into here at the Cafe. I routinely waited to set my daily lineups until I got those matchup ratings. If I recall correctly he even did analysis after the fact, comparing his rankings vs. the ERAs/Ks/etc of the SPs in each group.
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Re: Daily SP Matchup Ratings

Postby Slayer Rules » Mon Mar 21, 2011 6:20 pm

I think it was Perlick?

Man if you want to pick up the torch it would be great - I appreciated those rankings a lot as well.

I can't really help with how he did it though.
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Re: Daily SP Matchup Ratings

Postby RAmst23 » Tue Mar 22, 2011 1:26 pm

This was a stickied thread on the Who to Start/Bench page. Perlick's 2009 is up there since my guess is no one unstickied it :-D . I believe he fell off a little last year, but I also stopped checking so could be wrong there.

His only criteria was that the pitchers needed to be waiver wire guys in a 12 or 14 teamer. He made a straight projection and also kept track of his results so you could follow along. If memory serves overall he did pretty well.

Definitely a great thread to start-up again. Maybe even split the duties with another forumer so it's not so time consuming for one person?
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
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Re: Daily SP Matchup Ratings

Postby kab21 » Tue Mar 22, 2011 1:32 pm

I believe it was called spot starters or something like that. Really useful for those that can stream from the waiver wire. Or for those in leagues that limit innings pitched and quality is valued over quantity.
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Re: Daily SP Matchup Ratings

Postby MTUCache » Tue Mar 22, 2011 2:01 pm

I'd definitely be up for doing it, at least during the week (and maybe preparing a "weekend edition" for while I'm not at a computer)... my only concerns are how I'm going to put together those grades.

It needs to be something fairly quick. I'm willing to put in a half-hour to put rankings on 30 pitchers for the day, so gathering information from two or three sites is viable, I'd just like to make sure that it's the right information and from the most efficient sites.

Some things, like GB/FB%, defensive rankings, park ratings, etc will all be fairly constant throughout the year, so I'm not all that worried about taking those into account.

Daily updating variables I'm assuming would be important to my ratings right off the bat:
1.) Pitchers last five Home/Away starts
2.) Pitchers last X starts vs. specific lineup
3.) Weather
4.) Night/Day Game Splits

I'm sure I'll come up with some others... so right now the workflow (using geeky office-scrub terms here now apparently) would involve finding a site with reliable "Probable SPs", looking up each pitchers last X # of starts, finding the weather report for the game, and then finding some way to flag any notable splits or statistical outliers that are worthy of noting.

The daily report would be fairly simple, just assigning a letter grade A-F to each probable starter and then a one-line note about any important details for each of the 15 games (likely rainouts, X hitter mashes against this guy, etc).

Evaluating the grades would add some time to the process to, looking at the results for the previous day and inputing them into a spreadsheet (IP, ER, W/L, W+H, K).
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Re: Daily SP Matchup Ratings

Postby RAmst23 » Tue Mar 22, 2011 3:14 pm

MTU it looks like we're talking about separate things now. So you're looking at grading all the pitching match-ups each day, not just who should be spot started? That's a ton of work! Perlick picked about 3 - 4 matchups each day, ranked them 1 - 4 and gave a projection. Really just thumb through his thread and you'll get an idea how it worked.

ESPN actually gives a pretty reliable probable starter list. Rotoworld and rotoinfo give daily projected line-ups in-season.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
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Re: Daily SP Matchup Ratings

Postby MTUCache » Tue Mar 22, 2011 3:48 pm

RAmst23 wrote:MTU it looks like we're talking about separate things now.

Yeah, I think Perlick's rankings were inspired by the one that I'm talking about... the one I was thinking of was at least a couple years ago, maybe more.

I don't know how much more work it is really... there's on-average 30 SPs per day. At least 12 of these are going to be #1/#2 pitchers who are going to be started by just about everybody, and will have an A/B rating 90% of the time (unless they run up against a really tough team).

Picking out the bottom-third guys who have good matchups (or are on a hot streak) is the tough part of the work anyway, which was what Perlick was already doing. Adding a dozen guys who everybody is going to own (and is just about guaranteed to start) doesn't really add too much extra effort... at least in the way I was anticipating doing it.

I guess I'm really just hesitant to start doing this based off of my own "gut" feeling, sticking my neck out there as an "expert" and not creating anything of value. There's a big difference between doing some sort of logical analysis of the probables than there is just going through and picking out which ones you think will have a good start... I don't think that really adds anymore value than any other "matchup ratings" you get from your league sites.
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Re: Daily SP Matchup Ratings

Postby J35J » Tue Mar 22, 2011 4:53 pm

Personally, if you are going to do it then just do it yourself and put your own research and thoughts into it and lets see what you come up with...I don't want to see a formula. I wouldn't mind doing it that way but I'm afraid if I take on something like this it will burn me out during the year and I'll pay more attention to this "project" than I do my fantasy teams.

Obviously if you do it this way then you'd only want to pick out the 3-4 best possiblities and limit them to those that are like less than 50% owned based on Yahoo or something....if you had time for more than more power to ya but that's the way I'd go about it.

Good luck if you take it on...it would be fun to do.
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