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anyone else sick of wins and Ks?

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Postby great gretzky » Sun Mar 28, 2004 3:36 pm

I hate this type of discussion in a lot of regards. One of the cool things about baserabll is that you can't be a ball hog. as said before a hit or homerun is or it isn't. In other sports, say fantasy hoops, ppg is misleading, because the best player on the worst team can jsut pad stats. Stat padding is much harder in baseball.

Or football, were the RB's yards a product of his skill, the line's skill, or the qb's skill in amking the defense stretch? who knows.

Wins are a rpoduct of the team, sure -- but it works the other way too. If the adage is true that good pitching beats good hitting, then we have to give credit to the ptichers for their wins.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Sun Mar 28, 2004 4:02 pm

3 things:

1st, zakee, get registered.

2nd, a couple of you have hinted at it, but I will say it right out. Fantasy games are not supposed to see whose team would win if they played each other. If you wanted to do that, then invest in a Srat-o-matic baseball game. Fantasy sports track stats, no matter how significant they are to helping the player's team win. A player's fantasy value has and should have no bearing on their value to their team. For example, Derek Jeter. Is there a stat for being able to predict that a teammate will miss a cutoff throw, being able to get to the spot on the field where that throw will end up, and be able to catch that ball, spin around, and throw it to home where the player there tags a non-sliding jeremy giambi out? I dont think so. And is there a stat that calculates how much a pitcher gets nervous when he sees Barry Bonds in the dugout, and so messes up pitching to Pedro Feliz, who hits a double to win the game? I dont think so. But for fantasy, a player's true REAL value doesnt matter. What matters is his stats, and stats only. That is why a bad pitcher on a good team is sometimes more valuable than a good pitcher on a bad team, simply because they will get more wins.

3rd, in general, fielding percentage doesnt mean sh*t. It only tells how a player's hands and throwing accuracy are, but it doesnt tell how good a player's reactions to the ball, judgment on the flight of the ball, speed, instinct, and knowledge of the game a batter's tendencies. If a player gets to more balls (becuase he has great range and reactions) he will probably make more errors. There just is no true way to quantify fielding.
Last edited by Bloody Nipples on Sun Mar 28, 2004 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Spartans Rule » Sun Mar 28, 2004 4:16 pm

zakee wrote:SB are totally fine. Gives credit for stealing a base. What's wrong with that?


Well, the fact that almost all statheads agree that stealing a base is very inconsequential in a baseball game. A stolen base moves a runner up one base. It has far less value than a single, which puts the batter on first and moves all other runners up at least one base. Also, most players who steal a lot of bases are also caught stealing quite often, but are not punished for this. A caught stealing removes a runner from the base and adds an out, far more damaging to an offensive effort than a steal is helpful. Not to mention that attempting to steal forces the batter to take pitches.

All things considered, stolen bases are almost meaningless when measuring an offensive player's contributions. Yet they account for 20% of your fantasy team's offense. This category is certainly not helping to accomplish your goal of having players valued based on real life performance.

As said before, the league that will most accurately evaluate player performance is 1x1, OPS and ERA. But the real beauty of roto baseball is that you have to look at a wide variety of players who have different skill sets and are in different situations. You have to find players who fill different roles. It makes the game far more fun and challenging than simply selecting the best players.
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Postby Sox FANatic001 » Sun Mar 28, 2004 4:28 pm

its been said before, but the point of fantasy is to draft a well rounded team that will score well in all categories. Who cares why he wins. if a pitchers wins alot, grab him. if he's on a bad team and thus has a bad era, grab someone with a good ear to balance it out. if you need power, grab a slugger who bats .250. grab a high average guy to balance it out. it's all about balnace
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Postby DK » Sun Mar 28, 2004 4:52 pm

Just read through this whole thing.

HOOTIE touched base on the reason why K is so important. It all has to do with H/BIP ratio (Hits per balls in play).

Now, as an example, I'll take Eric Gagne. Eric Gagne pitched 82.1 innings last year, and gave up only 37 hits, which is an outsanding ratio.

In those 82.1 innings, Gagne threw 137 strikeouts. Those 137 K's were equal to 45.2 innings that Gagne threw. In 45.2 Innings thrown by Eric Gagne, there was no chance of an error or any batter getting on base.

Of H/BIP, Gagne allowed 37 hits in 36.2 innings, which is a much easier number to figure out.

Strikeouts have a HUGE bearing on how well a pitcher pitches.

As to the 50HR/150RBI or the 0HR/150RBI guy, it depends. Does the guy with 0 HR have a chance of developing power? What are the OBP's of each player? If all things were equal, I would probably take the 50HR player, because he scares pitchers into throwing more walks, which leads to higher OBP.

Now, the stolen bases:
A stolen base is usually inconsequential. You need to steal successfully at least 63.7 percent of the time for it to be a help for your team. Read Bill James or Moneyball if you don't believe me.

Wins may be an overrated fantasy stat, but in real baseball, it's all that matters in the end. Other factors (IE ERA, WHIP, K) influence the decision, but in the end the W/L record of a team decides who goes to the playoffs and who goes home.

Hope I helped.
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Postby zakee » Sun Mar 28, 2004 5:34 pm

Spartans Rule wrote:
zakee wrote:SB are totally fine. Gives credit for stealing a base. What's wrong with that?


Well, the fact that almost all statheads agree that stealing a base is very inconsequential in a baseball game. A stolen base moves a runner up one base. It has far less value than a single, which puts the batter on first and moves all other runners up at least one base. Also, most players who steal a lot of bases are also caught stealing quite often, but are not punished for this. A caught stealing removes a runner from the base and adds an out, far more damaging to an offensive effort than a steal is helpful. Not to mention that attempting to steal forces the batter to take pitches.

All things considered, stolen bases are almost meaningless when measuring an offensive player's contributions. Yet they account for 20% of your fantasy team's offense. This category is certainly not helping to accomplish your goal of having players valued based on real life performance.

As said before, the league that will most accurately evaluate player performance is 1x1, OPS and ERA. But the real beauty of roto baseball is that you have to look at a wide variety of players who have different skill sets and are in different situations. You have to find players who fill different roles. It makes the game far more fun and challenging than simply selecting the best players.


I agree that SB aren't that important, and I would not be opposed to eliminating it, but I don't think it's nearly as bad as W or quite as bad as K. Again, I am not looking to play in a perfect system and I don't want only 2 or 4 cats. I'd simply like to get rid of the worst stats and bring the players' value closer to reality. What K does is create a huge disparity in value between pitchers with similar ERAs simply because some of them throw more strikeouts than others.

pitcher A throws for a 2.82 ERA in 200 innings over 32 starts with 260 Ks

pitcher B throws for a 2.82 ERA in 200 innings over 32 starts, but with just 160 Ks

Why should player B have less value than player A when he had the same ERA, threw for the same innings and made the same amount of starts?
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Postby vtbos » Sun Mar 28, 2004 5:35 pm

W's don't make sense to have such great value- FOr instance, the only reason I am not even considering trading K. Brown is bcz he is with the YAnkees now and will have a good record- I am a Redsox fan- I hate to say that but it is true!! Sometimes people who shouldn't are not traded or dumped simply bcz they are on a good team and will have a good record--- Halladay for instance, he is amazing and has a great record, He Would have a freakin amazing record if he was with the Yankees or REd SOX!!!
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Postby zakee » Sun Mar 28, 2004 6:44 pm

Pettitte's a great example. 4.02 ERA, 6.3 IP per start, but because he had 21 wins and 180 Ks, he's far more valuable and popular than Ryan Franklin, who had a 3.57 ERA, averaged 6.6 IP per start, but had just 11 wins and only struck out 99. Or Kip Wells: 3.28 ERA, 6.3 IP per start, but only 10 wins and 147 Ks. It's utter lunacy that Pettitte had more value than Wells and Franklin last year.
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Postby justinA » Sun Mar 28, 2004 6:48 pm

zakee wrote:Pettitte's a great example. 4.02 ERA, 6.3 IP per start, but because he had 21 wins and 180 Ks, he's far more valuable and popular than Ryan Franklin, who had a 3.57 ERA, averaged 6.6 IP per start, but had just 11 wins and only struck out 99. Or Kip Wells: 3.28 ERA, 6.3 IP per start, but only 10 wins and 147 Ks. It's utter lunacy that Pettitte had more value than Wells and Franklin last year.

well thats how it goes buddy. Fantasy baseball is a stat driven game and thats all it is. Nobody other than you cares about the players real value. Its stats and only stats, and sometimes the team comes into play, but there is nothing wrong with that. Do you want to penalize all the good teams and the players on them and make it an even playing field?? Your like the Stalin (referring to communism of course, I'm not saying your a dictator. lol) of baseball.
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Postby zakee » Sun Mar 28, 2004 7:07 pm

LOL!

Dude, I'm not dictating anything. Just stating my opinions.
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