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anyone else sick of wins and Ks?

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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:48 pm

every time i think of something, Gotowar has already thought of it!!! 8-o
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Postby matmat » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:54 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:SNW

Support Neutral Wins (that is, the wins a pitcher would have if his team hit like the average team in the league).

Available at Baseball Prospectus


I don't really see how this is a good stat, to be honest .
Doesn't this basically boil down to giving up less runs
than the average team scores? How does the quality
of the bullpen get factored in?
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:55 pm

The normal stats aren't going to change to all the ratio stats that anti-win/K activists crave. People like basic 5x5, and there's nothing wrong with those stats. It might not reflect how good players are in real life, but who cares? It isn't supposed to. That's like saying a $20 bill shouldn't be worth as much as a $1 bill because you like Washington more than you like Jackson. That's a bad analogy, but you get what I mean. If you want realistic players values, go play real baseball. If you want to have fun and waste some time with stats, just use 5x5, and add in a few others if you want.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:56 pm

Bloody Nipples wrote:every time i think of something, Gotowar has already thought of it!!! 8-o


I didn't think of it. I just read about it.
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yup

Postby matmat » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:59 pm

LBJackal wrote:The normal stats aren't going to change to all the ratio stats that anti-win/K activists crave. People like basic 5x5, and there's nothing wrong with those stats. It might not reflect how good players are in real life, but who cares? It isn't supposed to. That's like saying a $20 bill shouldn't be worth as much as a $1 bill because you like Washington more than you like Jackson. That's a bad analogy, but you get what I mean. If you want realistic players values, go play real baseball. If you want to have fun and waste some time with stats, just use 5x5, and add in a few others if you want.


I agree with what you say. Mostly. I just don't understand why certain leagues find it necessary to use, say, both H and AVG, for example... I mean, the categories should be "good" enough so that there isn't too much overlap... in the end W is just as good a category as any _but_ two pitchers with identical raw stats (K,ERA,WHIP) get valued differently based on what team they are on. It's just a matter of prepping for the draft correctly.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 29, 2004 11:00 pm

matmat wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:SNW

Support Neutral Wins (that is, the wins a pitcher would have if his team hit like the average team in the league).

Available at Baseball Prospectus


I don't really see how this is a good stat, to be honest .
Doesn't this basically boil down to giving up less runs
than the average team scores? How does the quality
of the bullpen get factored in?


Why should the quality of a bullpen get factored into your evaluation of a starting pitcher?

Similarly, why should the offense hitting for you get factored into your evaluation of a starting pitcher?

Basically, this nets out the effect of your offense (remember even on teams with good offense, sometimes a pitcher gets less run support). So what this does is estimate the number of wins you would get if your offensive support was set to the league average (in other words, yeas, it measures whether or not you hold the opposition to fewer runs than the average team scores).
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Mar 29, 2004 11:06 pm

That sounds good, but you wouldn't be able to calculate it until after the season. I can't see something like that catching on. Unless you update the average amount of run support every day, and start off with the previous year's numbers the first day of the season. For hard-core fantasiers, this might be used, but not for casual fantasiers.

(While I'm making up stats, why not also make up new words?)
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Postby matmat » Mon Mar 29, 2004 11:09 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Why should the quality of a bullpen get factored into your evaluation of a starting pitcher?

Similarly, why should the offense hitting for you get factored into your evaluation of a starting pitcher?

Basically, this nets out the effect of your offense (remember even on teams with good offense, sometimes a pitcher gets less run support). So what this does is estimate the number of wins you would get if your offensive support was set to the league average (in other words, yeas, it measures whether or not you hold the opposition to fewer runs than the average team scores).

it shouldn't
and
it shouldn't.

just wodering how the stat is calculated.

say your pitcher goes 6 innings gives up 4 runs.
the league average support (I don't know what it is, I am guessing) is 6/start is this a SNW or not? does the number get prorated to the number of innings that the pitcher pitched? does it assume that the bullpen will hold any lead the starter gives them? I am not actually arguing about whether the stat is bad or not, but I want to know exactly how it is calculated... maybe I don't understand what "support runs" are...
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Postby great gretzky » Mon Mar 29, 2004 11:14 pm

would the game even continue to be fun if every stat was "neutral"? I don't think so, and if such stats existed, I would want no parts of this anymore.

To me, the fun is taking in context the raw stats for a player PLUS your overall knowledge of the game and teams and how the players relate to each other.

Knowing that soriano changed leagues and arod is on a stacked lineup is what makes the game fun -- the debate and differing player evaluations are what makes the interpersonal element of the game.

Anyone can jsut read and plug in rankings -- that element would be made worse, not better by the ultimate in individaul, neutral stats. I like that certian players will be overvalued because of their team, and others overvalued.

Will say florida, continue to run as a philosphy, thus increasing the fantasy usefulness of crawford and pierre? or will they slow down?

Will someone's lineup produce, increasing the rbi opportunities or not?

Without these kinds of assesments, it would be almost like one big math problem, and that doesn't seem to be much fun to me.

The way it is currently formulated, is that fantasy baseball seems to me a lot like chess. Rational, logical and mathmatical analysis are skill sets that can win. BUT, "feel" and interpersonal economic ability can also yield a win. Some teams may not be great at initial player assesment and projections -- I certianly am not the strongest in that regard.

But, I feel like I am fairly strong at reading the "market" so to speak -- anlayzing the other teams, seeing what surplus of stats they have, which stats will be hard for them to trade for, scarce postions etc, and capitalizing on them.

To me, making trades, wire pickups etc are the lifeblood for me, the statistical analysis is the base.

So if every stat were simply neutral, all you woudl have to do is get a reliable projection and make your decisions based on that. "Feel" wouldn't matter as much, because you can't exploit other owner's insecurities, perceptions in the way of scarcity and surplus etc.

If everything was based ona player's skill in a vacuum, quantified by "neutral" stats, everyone would have a fairly uniform draft lists, plug them in and watch.

If there is anything I learned abotu fantasy sports that everything is relative -- the mlb players realtive to their surrounding teams and others at their position ANd everything realtive to the others in your league.
Taking that away would detract from the whole experince.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Tue Mar 30, 2004 1:19 am

great gretzky wrote: If there is anything I learned abotu fantasy sports that everything is relative -- the mlb players realtive to their surrounding teams and others at their position ANd everything realtive to the others in your league.
Taking that away would detract from the whole experince.


Everything well said, especially that. ;-D ;-D ;-D
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