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anyone else sick of wins and Ks?

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Postby Sox FANatic001 » Mon Mar 29, 2004 8:33 pm

jbuk wrote:Nice idea, Bloody Nipples, I can see at what you're trying to get at, but that formula makes it optimal for a pitcher to give up exactly one run less than the runs of run support he got. If he gave up no ER, he'd get a W/(RS-ER) of nearly 0, and Arlo has already pointed out the problem when ER=RS.

W/(ER+RS) makes a bit more sense.


but then if a pitcher allows zero runs and wins its 1/(0+0). we'd need to get a one in the demoniator to make it work
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Postby Rhymes_T79 » Mon Mar 29, 2004 9:31 pm

really tho, im just amazed that this thread made it past 2 pages.

heres the answer to all your questions...

YES, K's are ultimately inportant to the success or failure of your team!

why? well...would u rather (1) watch prior stike out the side every other inning and go for a no-no, or (2) watch brian lawrence ground-ball people to death? what would you PAY to see?

as a fan, i would go with 1. i know that back in the day in seattle, people would actually try to go to M's games when randy was pitching... screw the games that fassero threw in! thats a waste of money! (though i would have paid extra $$$ to see a bobby ayala start and get rocked and punch some windows)

anyways, now lets go crazy and assume the more attendance a club gets, the more revenue they generate, and thus, the more their business can grow!

well smart business owners, would re-invest some $$$ into their team and improve the team not only for the short, but long-term as well. and hopefully this cycle can repeat itself and the team will become a dynasty!

so basically K's, draw attendance, which draw $$$, which improve teams. but wait, wait,....what else draw attendance/generates $$$/ promotes growth? some other stupid stat... oh yeah thats right, ......WINS.....!

damn im one smart cookie!
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Mar 29, 2004 9:53 pm

Sox FANatic001 wrote:but then if a pitcher allows zero runs and wins its 1/(0+0). we'd need to get a one in the demoniator to make it work


If he wins, then he should have at least one run in support, so that takes care of the problem.

matmat wrote:(RS-ER)/W if W>0.
you remove the possiblity of infinity (unless you consider pitchers with 0 wins... but do you really want to?)

Also, you now have TWO team factors -- W and RS for a personal stat -- not too good, is it? I mean... do you really want the pitcher who gives up 5runs/game ands gets 6 in support (and say, wins 15) to have the same stat as the pitcher who gives up 1 and gets 2?


I first wanted to do W/RS, but decided against it. But that might be the way to go, you tell me.
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Postby matmat » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:12 pm

Bloody Nipples wrote:I first wanted to do W/RS, but decided against it. But that might be the way to go, you tell me.


not that good either... this almost removes the pitching aspect... and how exactly does this work out for relievers?
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:19 pm

Jason Schmidt's #s:

W/RS -> 0.3148

W/RSA -> 3.3797

W/(ER + RS) -> 0.0999

W/(RS - ER) -> 0.2739

W/(ERA + RSA) -> 2.3066

Can everyone else do one or two players numbers for these categories? If so, then we can see which one most accurately portrays what we are looking for.

One thing unsettling about the W/RS and W/RSA is that a pitcher that gets 10 runs in support and only allows 1 run would be almost penalized for having a good offense behind him. I'd like to incorporate ERA into those, not inside the current value, but outside, maybe dividing ERA by it, or it by ERA.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:21 pm

matmat wrote:
Bloody Nipples wrote:I first wanted to do W/RS, but decided against it. But that might be the way to go, you tell me.


not that good either... this almost removes the pitching aspect... and how exactly does this work out for relievers?


I don't really like the W/RS, either. And I guess it would work the same for relievers. Could somebody research a reliever's numner's too?
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well...

Postby matmat » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:22 pm

it is not clear to me exactly how one counts "support runs" for a reliever... or for a starter, as a matter of fact.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:27 pm

to tell the truth, I am not sure either. It could be runs scored by the pitchers team while he was in the game, or it could be total runs. If its total, than the reliever stat would be messed up big time.
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Postby justinA » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:35 pm

guys, lets just face it that your not just gunna create a cure-all stat for fantasy baseball, and even if you did, it wouldnt get any recognition because it would probably have to be approved by the MLB or something before it can be inserted in a fantasy game. (MLBPA rule probably, only official stats can count, just a guess though)
The Oreos!
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:46 pm

Bloody Nipples wrote:I just solved all the problems, or some of them, posed in this thread! I have found a way to compare wins without placing bias towards pitchers on better teams. Here it is:


Wins per one run of run support minus earned runs.

In symbols: W/[(R of run support) - (ER)]


That is, for the difference in runs given up by a pitcher and runs supporting a pitcher, how many wins did he get?

Now, this needs to be critiqued and tweaked before it becomes the real deal.

So fire away!


SNW

Support Neutral Wins (that is, the wins a pitcher would have if his team hit like the average team in the league).

Available at Baseball Prospectus
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