Help me fourpeat: choose 5 keepers. WHIR

[fizz]

Friendly $50 league, 10 team, H2H, standard 5x5 scoring. We get to keep up to 5; keepers are based on what round the player was drafted in: FA cost a last round pick; WW is the round drafted in. All players kept the previous year cost a 1st round pick. My team (where the player can be kept in parentheses):

note: I had to throw a hail mary to threepeat, and started 7 pitchers on the last day of the season. So my team sure doesn't look as good as it did on the next-to-last day of the season.

C - Kurt Suzuki (13)
1B - Mark Teixeira (2)
2B - Chase Utley (1)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman (1)
SS - Troy Tulowitzki (1)
OF - BJ Upton (3)
OF - Colby Rasmus (24)
OF - Carlos Gonzalez (12)
UTIL - Pedro Alvarez (24)
B - Justin Upton (1)
B - Hunter Pence (24)
B - Billy Butler (8)
DL - Kendrys Morales (24)

SP - Felix Hernandez (1)
SP - Francisco Liriano (17)
RP - Phil Coke (24)
RP - Esmil Rogers (24)
P - Clay Buchholz (14)
P - Madison Bumgarner (24)
P - Wade Davis (24)
B - Nick Blackburn (24)
B - Nelson Figueroa (24)
B - Marc Rzepczynski (24)
B - Esmil Rogers (24)
DL - Ricky Nolasco (6)

Obviously, most of these guys won't be kept. We're looking for value here - what players could I NOT get in the round I can keep them in? I figure these guys are my best choices, but if you think differently I'd be glad to take any advice you have.

Troy Tulowitzki (1)
Carlos Gonzalez (12)
Clay Buchholz (14)
Francisco Liriano (17)
Kendrys Morales (24)
Colby Rasmus (24)
Pedro Alvarez (24)
Madison Bumgarner (24)

Thoughts?

edit: some more info that might be helpful: it's a snake draft, and I got #8 in the lottery (meaning I have #13 when it comes back around in the second round).

I can keep multiple players in each round: if I keep two players from the same round, the next round's pick is taken. So if I were to have two 5th round picks I would keep, they would take my 5th and 6th round picks. If I keep multiple last round picks, it just takes up the previous round. So theoretically I could keep Morales, Rasmus and Alvarez 22nd-24th.

[onitapgr]

I would say definitely:

B - Hunter Pence (24)
OF - Carlos Gonzalez (12)

And I can't pick 3 out of these, they are all good choices
SS - Troy Tulowitzki (1) - no way he makes it to you if you throw him back
OF - Colby Rasmus (24)
UTIL - Pedro Alvarez (24)
DL - Kendrys Morales (24)
SP - Francisco Liriano (17)

[HOOTIE]

Pence
Rasmus
Morales
Cargo
Alvarez

[AllDay]

Tulo
Cargo
Alvarez
Pence
Morales

[zippytrash]

Tulo
Cargo
P.Alvarez
H.Pence
K.Morales

[fizz]

You like Morales even though he'll start the year on the DL? 1B is crazy deep, so I'm second guessing him.

SP is crazier deep, and I like keeping hitters over pitchers anyway, so I'm having doubts about keeping Liriano.

I know it's a H2H league, but I still try to look to previous years' stats and build a team that would finish second in each of the statistical categories. Judging from past years, this is what I'll need:

R: 850
HR: 235
RBI: 875
SB: 155
AVG: .298

K: 1600
W: 125
SV: 135
ERA: 3.35
WHIP: 1.22

I really like Rasmus, and even though I wasn't really thinking about him, after looking up ADP & past/projected stats I'm liking Pence more and more. Gonzalez is a sure thing, so keeping all three would take care of my OF spots (one less thing to worry about at the draft). Tulo in the 1st doesn't offer GREAT value, but with as bad as SS is, I feel almost compelled to keep him. I'm just using ESPN's projections, so take it with a grain of salt, but here's what those 4 guys would give me, and what I would need from the rest of my lineup:

R: 850 - 373 = 477
HR: 235 - 114 = 121
RBI: 875 - 358 = 517
SB: 155 - 60 = 95

That seems like a pretty good start (and it's assuming Rasmus won't outperform his projections... I'm one of those who thinks he will), and I still have a 5th keeper I can choose - either a big power buy like Morales/Alvarez, or a starter like Liriano who would give me a head start on my rotation.

[galante22]

tulo
cargo
pence
liriano
kendry/rasmus/bumgarner

heres my logic on the last 3, kendry starst the year on the dl but still could put out 30 hrs and 100 rbis, rasmus is nice in the 24th but do you really wanna keep all ofs? kinda handcuffs you if a great of falls to you, and bumgarner im not personally that high on but for round 24 hes solid...all said and done id take kendry whod prolly go in the 12th the latest even starting on the dl

[fizz]

heres my logic on the last 3, kendry starst the year on the dl but still could put out 30 hrs and 100 rbis, rasmus is nice in the 24th but do you really wanna keep all ofs? kinda handcuffs you if a great of falls to you, and bumgarner im not personally that high on but for round 24 hes solid...all said and done id take kendry whod prolly go in the 12th the latest even starting on the dl

That's what's getting me right now, I want to keep the best values but I really don't want to handcuff myself at the draft. If I keep three OF, I can't go for an OF like Justin Upton if he makes it around to me in the second. If I keep Alvarez, I can't go for a Zimmerman/Wright (assuming Wright isn't kept), and with Morales there might be a bunch of "better" 1B available earlier in the draft. I don't like filling my UTIL spot right off the bat, because it really cuts down my options for later in the draft.

I'll have to check my cheat sheets and see who else might be available in my early picks.

[caruso83]

In my opinion these are Locks:

Tulo
Cargo
Pence

Toss up on the Rest...
I'd say Pedro,Bums


Help me
viewtopic.php?t=424574

[HOOTIE]

Morales, Alvarez, Rasmus cost you nothing but a 24th.
Cargo in the 12th.
These are the best VALUES by far.
They might not be the best players, but you want value.