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Will the Real Ryan Rayburn Please Stand Up?

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Will the Real Ryan Rayburn Please Stand Up?

Postby sinicalypse » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:02 pm

Does anyone truly believe that late-blooming WUNDERKIND Ryan Rayburn is really a diamond in the rough? In 2009 he pulled a .291/16/45/.891OPS in 261 at bats out of his arse and figured to show LE TIGRE that he was a legit late bloomer (a la Scott Podsednik) and then he promptly went back to bench duty and did a .290/15/62/.814OPS in 371 at bats.... I have no idea what about his 2009 season suggested that he wasn't worth more of an everyday look in 2010, but he essentially duplicated the #s with a paltry 110 more at-bats....

It seems like many people have him listed as a "sleeper" and think that if he gets his rightful 550+ at bats you're looking at a .280/25+/100ish type bat.... but my question to you is WHO REALLY BELIEVES THAT?! DOES ANYONE?!?!

I mean, you figure LE TIGRE would have noticed a guy showing up and dropping a .891 OPS in 113 games / 261 at bats, and his reward for that was playing the exact same # of games the next season, but getting bumped up to 371 at-bats.... and what I wonder is like, if the team that has him IRL wasn't ready to make him an everyday 500+ AB starter after his breakout 2009 season, then who exactly is ready to do that?

Who believes in the charismatic enigma that is Jeff Hardy.... erm, Ryan Rayburn? Or is he a guy who merely played out of his mind for the last two partial seasons and should be thankful that he's getting consideration by ANYONE who truly wants to believe they have a supersleeper 2B, even though evidence suggests despite his sporadic goodness he's not even good enough to be the primary starter all-season-long?
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Re: Will the Real Ryan Rayburn Please Stand Up?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:22 pm

Me.
The guy has over 1000 MLB PA with a .274 BA and 39 HR and 2B elligibility in Yahoo. So I think he can hit and he has value.
He was going to start last year until the Tigers decided to sign Damon. His biggest competition for AB this year is Brennan Boesch.
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Re: Will the Real Ryan Rayburn Please Stand Up?

Postby MTUCache » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:37 pm

sinicalypse wrote:.... and what I wonder is like, if the team that has him IRL wasn't ready to make him an everyday 500+ AB starter after his breakout 2009 season, then who exactly is ready to do that?

I'm still on the fence about Raburn, both as a fantasy owner and as a Tigers fan... but I will say that there's a lot more that went into those decisions than just his hitting line.

First, the Tigers have been a little confused lately about how to put new talent through the organization. Since the Pudge, Ordonez, Guillen signings (and the WS appearance that they essentially bought) they've transitioned from overpaying for veterans (i.e. Sheff) to trading away youth to dumber GMs (i.e. the MCab deal), to finally loading up on players who haven't quite got what it takes to make it in the big leagues.

Second, signing Damon and Peralta last year (both questionable signings) really put a roadblock on all of their available positions other than 2B (which Sizemore/Rhymes are supposed to be battling it out for).

Third, they've had so many "kids" audition for the few spots that are available that they have never really gotten a good look at any of them. Clete Thomas seemed to be Leyland's favorite for a while, then Boesch had a good spring, Don Kelly and Casper Wells have deserved a look for a while.

Over the past few seasons, Raburn's bat has put him at the top of that class. His glove has held him back, but unless they were prepared to enter the Crawford/Werth sweepstakes this offseason they were going to have to pick one of them. Raburn has gotten the nod for now, and Leyland has historically been pretty loyal once he's committed to one guy.

Fantasy-wise, I don't have many questions about his bat... I do wonder whether he'll go into a two week slump, make a few errors, and then lose out to one of the other guys who's mashing AAA. I'd say there's at least a 50% chance of that happening. But, if it doesn't, a full-season of production out of Raburn (at 2B/MI no less) would be a positive thing for any fantasy team.
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Re: Will the Real Ryan Rayburn Please Stand Up?

Postby sinicalypse » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:40 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:Me.
The guy has over 1000 MLB PA with a .274 BA and 39 HR and 2B elligibility in Yahoo. So I think he can hit and he has value.
He was going to start last year until the Tigers decided to sign Damon. His biggest competition for AB this year is Brennan Boesch.


Funny you should mention Boesch, cuz last year he started off all-world, hitting for a high average and having surprising power, cuz on June 27th he was hitting .338/12/43, and he would end up the season at .256/14/67.... his 2 HRs both coming in august, meaning he had none in either July or Sept.... he's streakier than Rayburn, but really, he's the same type of player... albeit a bigger oaf.

I think LE TIGRE needs to start Rayburn and see what he can give you over a full season, cuz coming out of the 2009 season you had to give him a shot... at his peak Boesch had a 1.010 OPS on June 27th, but Rayburn had a .891 OPS over ~110 games in 2009.... I don't get it... I guess you can't forget what Carlos Guillen did for you, eh?
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Re: Will the Real Ryan Rayburn Please Stand Up?

Postby sinicalypse » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:45 pm

MTUCache wrote:
sinicalypse wrote:.... and what I wonder is like, if the team that has him IRL wasn't ready to make him an everyday 500+ AB starter after his breakout 2009 season, then who exactly is ready to do that?

I'm still on the fence about Raburn, both as a fantasy owner and as a Tigers fan... but I will say that there's a lot more that went into those decisions than just his hitting line.

First, the Tigers have been a little confused lately about how to put new talent through the organization. Since the Pudge, Ordonez, Guillen signings (and the WS appearance that they essentially bought) they've transitioned from overpaying for veterans (i.e. Sheff) to trading away youth to dumber GMs (i.e. the MCab deal), to finally loading up on players who haven't quite got what it takes to make it in the big leagues.

Second, signing Damon and Peralta last year (both questionable signings) really put a roadblock on all of their available positions other than 2B (which Sizemore/Rhymes are supposed to be battling it out for).

Third, they've had so many "kids" audition for the few spots that are available that they have never really gotten a good look at any of them. Clete Thomas seemed to be Leyland's favorite for a while, then Boesch had a good spring, Don Kelly and Casper Wells have deserved a look for a while.

Over the past few seasons, Raburn's bat has put him at the top of that class. His glove has held him back, but unless they were prepared to enter the Crawford/Werth sweepstakes this offseason they were going to have to pick one of them. Raburn has gotten the nod for now, and Leyland has historically been pretty loyal once he's committed to one guy.

Fantasy-wise, I don't have many questions about his bat... I do wonder whether he'll go into a two week slump, make a few errors, and then lose out to one of the other guys who's mashing AAA. I'd say there's at least a 50% chance of that happening. But, if it doesn't, a full-season of production out of Raburn (at 2B/MI no less) would be a positive thing for any fantasy team.


PREACH ON MY BROTHER! While I love Peralta as a floor for the SS position this season (i.e. if you can take the ~.250 average hit his perennial ~15/80 is not bad @ the SS position... I wouldn't do it @ 3B but SS? works) but I don't get what the tigers are doing. Boesch is likely to be more of the flash in the pan, but Rayburn deserves a full shot to play some position... the guy posted back to back .800+ OPSes, hell, he was right near a .900 OPS after 2009 and instead you had to play other guys?

Maybe Leyland really needs a cigarette, eh?
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Re: Will the Real Ryan Rayburn Please Stand Up?

Postby Ender » Sun Mar 20, 2011 3:55 pm

He's a terrible fielder and the only reason his stats aren't ugly against RHP is an unsustainable BABIP, the Tigers are using him more or less correctly right now. I'd expect about the same number of AB this year which will hurt his value. He has value and is an ok risk pick but I like him a lot more if you have a backup plan for days he sits and you are in a daily league.
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Re: Will the Real Ryan Rayburn Please Stand Up?

Postby MTUCache » Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:29 am

sinicalypse wrote:PREACH ON MY BROTHER! While I love Peralta as a floor for the SS position this season (i.e. if you can take the ~.250 average hit his perennial ~15/80 is not bad @ the SS position... I wouldn't do it @ 3B but SS? works) but I don't get what the tigers are doing. Boesch is likely to be more of the flash in the pan, but Rayburn deserves a full shot to play some position... the guy posted back to back .800+ OPSes, hell, he was right near a .900 OPS after 2009 and instead you had to play other guys?

Maybe Leyland really needs a cigarette, eh?

This is my issue (bolded above)... I respect Dombrowski's decisions, and recognize that I'm working with only 1% of the information he's working with, but I'm having a difficult time seeing his focus here.

Money has been allocated at positions where it's not effective. I get that locking up players for long-term can be an effective way to work in cost certainty and solve problems. But when you don't know what position they're going to be playing long-term (Guillen), or you have a player who's skills are declining quickly and who's bat has never been consistent enough to hit in the top half of the lineup (Inge)... why are we locking up positions with those contracts? Why should Peralta be offered anything but a one year deal while we figure out another solution at SS/MI?

More importantly, if we're building for "now", why aren't we getting those free agents? Dunn, Werth, and/or Crawford would have made much more sense than VMart this offseason (yes, at a premium, I understand that). If we're not building for now, and we'd like to develop talent from within the organization, why are we blocking all of them by signing aging veterans who take up the "easy" defensive positions (Damon, Magglio, VMart).

If you're constantly "re-tooling" the organization you really don't have any idea of whether you're building or not. This past offseason, as $70+M came off the books, it would have been the perfect time to take one season, evaluate all this young talent, figure out what our needs are going into the future, and then next year make a big splash in whatever holes you have. By putting bandaids over bandaids we're never really sure where we are in the process. Take the one painful season to rip all that junk off (don't resign Magglio, cut Inge/Guillen, etc), open up every job for competition (Sizemore/Rhymes at 2B, all the kids in the OF, Santiago at SS, bring in another young C to compete with Avila, etc), and then see what sticks. If half of those positions are claimed by somebody you develop confidence in (after 500ABs, not 100), then you know exactly which positions are left to be filled with the big money you want to spend. Maybe we don't need any OF (maybe Boesch/Raburn/Kelly/Jackson is our future OF). Maybe we do. If we never figure that out we're constantly signing over-the-hill veterans to one or two year deals, blocking this evaluation.

Don't get me wrong, I love Guillen and Magglio and I'm sure I will come to love having VMart, and I do think that they deserve some loyalty... but if that's the case and we're hoping to make a push with these guys, why are we even discussing guys that should be 4th or 5th OFers on a playoff team?
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Re: Will the Real Ryan Rayburn Please Stand Up?

Postby Dan Lambskin » Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:12 pm

just an FYI Will Rhymes was named the starting 2B and Leyland say's he'll hit 2nd, so Raburn will be batting somewhere 6-9
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Re: Will the Real Ryan Rayburn Please Stand Up?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Wed Mar 23, 2011 12:29 pm

It's RABURN.

/spelling police
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