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Which 1B to keep/target in a deep/ish Winner League (WHIR)

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Which 1B to keep/target in a deep/ish Winner League (WHIR)

Postby sinicalypse » Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:44 am

Alright, so as we're creeping to roughly ~2 weeks to go until the games count, I'm in that pre-season stage of looking at my team and being worried about most of the ostentatious holes and trying to fill them to win the vaunted PRE-SEASON CHAMPIONSHIP.

This is the Yahoo 5x5 12-team Roto Winners League, so it's usually a bit harder than normal to nab quality bats/arms off of the waiver wire... plus people actually practice the concept of sitting on people. i've got a glut of middling-at-best 1B on the squad right now, and I want to know who you'd go with.... i'm also going to list a bunch of available FAs, cuz pretty much I would LOVE to break camp with 3+ closers and the best 1B/3B situations possible, cuz ian stewart doesn't exactly strike fear in the heart of men. if i can get 25+/80+ @ 1st and 3rd base and get another solid OF type bat alongside enough saves to crack 100+, I think I should be in the running for this league, barring das superteam rising up.... these winners leagues are usually parity filled, altho last year a man named jose bautista turned a 3B hole into 46/105 or something by the time I got him, thus propelling me up to a superteam status that dropped 101.5 points on the league, with the parity kicking in circa 81 points, cuz like ~4 teams finished with between 81-77 points =D

THEE SQUAD:

c - brian mccann (.275/20/75 floor, .300/30/100 dreams for this guy)
1B - luke scott (penciled in, but I'm probably not going to ride him early cuz he's streaky and never an RBI guy)
2B - gordon beckham (an every league guy. i like the kid and see .280/20/80 in a full season not marred by slump/injury)
SS - alexei ramirez (another guy who can give you top-100 overall production from the SS position)
3B - ian stewart (i was desperate at that point in the draft, altho I do have a quintessential sleeper backup)
OF - ryan braun (first round pick. here's to hoping he's closer to 2009 (#4 overall) than last year (#20ish overall)
OF - vladimir guerrero (nobody believes in the guy... so these last 2 years he's a round 9-13 scoopjob)
OF - juan pierre (talk about sleeper... his 68 steals helped him reach #52 overall last year)
util/OF - rajai davis (speak of the devil... .280ish and ~50/+ steals for a full season = nice)
util/(1B/OF) - adam lind (the quintessential take-a-flier guy who you hope can end up somewhere between last year (.237/27/72) and 2009 (.315/35/116)
bench/1B - adam laroche (i was desperate to have a productive 1B, what can i say?)
bench/1B - ike davis (see above)
bench/3B - edwin encarnacion (21HR 52RBI in ~330 at bats last year and reknown as a sleeper)

SP - felix hernandez, david price, tommy hanson, matt cain, carlos zambrano (i figure zambrano has a chance to get back to his 2006ish #s of ~15+ wins, 3.50/1.25 with a pretty OK k-rate... remember that from ~august 1st on he was just about the most dominating sleeper SP in the game)
RP - carlos marmol, ryan franklin, chris sale, mark lowe, kyle farnsworth (franklin always scares me some, seeing as he's like 37-38... from there, i've got kyle farnsworth as my first horse in the rays' closer derby, and mark lowe, prior to giving up like 9ER in 2IP over outings in the last week, seemed to be the guy the rangers wanted to take the closer role should feliz go to the rotation. oh and ozzie hasn't named a closer between sale and thornton yet. peter gammons tweeted that ozzie said thornton has "first dibs" but i heard on chicago sportstalk radio that the plan is to have sale close, seeing as thornton already has his money, and this way they can use thornton when needed and always easily slide him into the closer role at any point)

so basically, once i got wind that neftali feliz is trying to start and still pitching 4+ dominant innings in spring outings, I cut freddie freeman (another 1B, who woulda thunk it) for mark lowe. freeman has cleared waivers, and once you hear the national buzz and see him look solid, you never know if you've got a kid who can put up .300ish/20ish/80ish AU GRATIS.... basically, I wouldn't be expecting super-powered mash #s but if he's as-advertised and hit and hitting .300+ all year with ~20/80-or-beyond peripherals, I'd love to have him) so he's on waivers.

ALSO, coco crisp is there for the taking. I understand that he's a perennial injury risk, and he's already got a tender hammy in the last day or two, with some speculation that he could be back sunday. He swiped ~32 bases in ~290 at bats last season, alongside 8HR and 38RBI. I think we all know the talent/potential is there for him to be a real poor man's carl crawford, i.e. ~13+HR/50+ RBI and 40+ SB if he were to get a full season in him... but in an unforgiving league filled with people who eeked out victories in a league last year, do you drop one of the vaunted 1B bats to give him a flier, fully knowing you've got juan pierre and rajai davis? if he was going even for 1/3 of a season at full bore stealing those bases with some pop I could get out ahead in SB and cover up some of the potential offensive woes i got from a roughly C-minus draft.

So what do you think? My gut says "f*ck adam laroche" and maybe give freddie freeman a go, as obviously his arrow is point up while with laroche we're hoping it stays the same, tho i'd be amazed if he drives in 100+, i figure his usual line of ~.275/25/85 is a nice floor to fall back on @ 1B.

ALSO AVAILABLE IN THE LEAGUE:

- reid brignac (a 2B/SS guy who many are bullish on because of his .256/8/45 in 301 at bats last year)
- domonic brown (the injury got him cut, as i figure many are saying "hey this kid didn't do excrement last year and now he's hurt")
- chipper jones
- reid brignac (in my other leagues where I'm weak/ish at shortstop, i.e. hello jhonny peralta, brignac would be nice cuz he put up .256/8/45 in ~300 at bats last year, and he has 2B/SS eligibility)
- dan johnson (his cup of coffee #s last year were quite pena-esque)
- peter bourjos
- kila ka'aihue
- david freese
- jake mcgee (people seem to think he's the best long run bet for rays' closer, so would you cut farnsworth for him right now?)
- michael pineda (i hear the mariners job is his to lose)
- brett cecil (15 wins at age 24, but 4+ ERAs scare me)
- clay hensley (supposedly "the guy" if leo nunez faulters / never comes back from his dad's death)
- mike minor
- jon rauch (if/when frank francisco starts off "slowly" i guess he's "the guy" to back him up in the beginning)

SO ENOUGH OF MY BABBLE, WHAT DO YOU THINK?!! should you read through and respond to this dredge, drop me a link to your thread and i'll gladly apply my verbose expertise.

# james
Last edited by sinicalypse on Sat Mar 19, 2011 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Which 1B to keep/target in a deep/ish Winner League (WHI

Postby Pokeyouindaeye » Sat Mar 19, 2011 1:17 pm

From what it looks like, you're looking for a bat that will either go into your 1B slot or a util slot. From seeing your options, picking up a Reid Brignac wouldn't make much sense if you feel like you need production from those slots (your projections for freeman seem to point this out). Also, you already seem worried about coco crisp, somebody who has not played a full season in three years, and apparently is already slightly injured. Pineda is not guaranteed to start for the mariners from what I've heard. He needs to work on his off speed stuff to start the year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him start out in AAA until around June, when both him and Ackley will probably be called up.

Personally, I like Chipper Jones because he will produce as long as he is healthy. Even though he's probably not going to mash over .300 again, I think he'll get around 20 dingers and 80 rbi if he lasts for most of the season. These numbers are slightly worse than what you have projected for freeman, which seem pretty sky high for what will essentially be freeman's rookie season.

On the other hand, LaRoche has been hitting 20 80 very consistently over the years, and has not shown signs of slowing down. With the Injury concerns of Chipper, it makes no sense to drop LaRoche for him if you will get the same production, even if chipper is healthy. Ian Stewart makes more sense to drop for Chipper, but the same argument applies here. I'd probably hold for from what I see on your team, with your most cuttable player probably being whoever doesn't get a closer job. From what I've heard the Ray's closer gig might be closer by committee, so that would be bad. Sale's also been roughed up a bit, so he might not have that great of a claim for the Sox's closer gig. I'd drop one of those two for either freeman or Chipper.
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Re: Which 1B to keep/target in a deep/ish Winner League (WHI

Postby sinicalypse » Sat Mar 19, 2011 2:48 pm

Oh for the record I'm not projecting Freeman at .300/20/80 or anything, I'm just saying I'd hate to miss out on the kid if he did something like that. People are calling him "this year's Heyward" and Heyward was, what, .275/18/70 or something like that? For an OF position that's nothing to call home about, although I do remember that Heyward started off real nice and then he had some sort of a thumb or wrist injury and slowed down considerably from that point on.

With Freeman, it's kind of like Heyward last year... realistically he isn't going to be a big deal, but what if he's one of those OMFG kids who shows up and hits like .315 out of the gate and drives in 100 runs... I'd love to have that stashed away for a Util slot or something, however, holding on to all these 1B candidates is killing my team's flexibility.

I'm not overjoyed with Ian Stewart, but I'm also not going to drop him for chipper jones. If you look at Chipper's stats over the last two seasons, one was a full year and the other had the injury, yet everything matches up about the same... .264/18/71 doesn't excite me for corner production, especially when Ian Stewart has legitimate upside.

Also, the Coco Crisp fascination would be a short-term move to maybe grab ~15-20 quick steals over the span of a month or two and help get out in front, relying on Juan Pierre and Rajai Davis to carry the bulk of the job. Typically, I've found that if you can have three "steals guys" going while having enough power to have a upper 1/3ish type offense, that's when you can buckle down pitching and run out to ~15-20 point leads by july-august =D

So I didn't really phrase the question right... I need to fill up the 1B slot with production. I've got Luke Scott, Adam Lind, Adam Laroche, and Ike Davis all sitting there and realistically, for some odd reason I feel like Adam Lind has the best chance of pulling a .280/30/100 type year out of his behind. But the real question is, if you were to keep three of those four guys on your roster, who would you let go?

BTW, I think/hope/pray that the White Sox haven't done the obvious thing and name Thornton the closer cuz from what I've heard from local newspaper guys, they WANT Sale to take the job and have Thornton as the ace up their sleeve.... Thornton's already got his contract, and they know at any point they can snap their fingers and he can close well enough, but for right now I think Ozzie likes having the flexibility of being able to drop thornton in a jam in say, the top of the 7th inning, as opposed to only using him in closing situations.
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Re: Which 1B to keep/target in a deep/ish Winner League (WHI

Postby jonpistone2 » Sat Mar 19, 2011 3:14 pm

laroche is more solid....and id very much think about keeping him as i expect him to have a nice year....but the upside you get from freeman is interesting.....its a 'bench' spot for you and freeman surely has amazing upside. With how solid your overall team looks, i would personally take freeman and hope for nice upside!!

hope this helps.

thank you for your help on my post!!
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