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Re: Ellsbury

Postby thedude » Wed May 18, 2011 11:55 am

Ender wrote:I expect him to go in the 2nd round next year. People seem to forget he was a top 25 player in 2009 before the freak injury in 2010.


He was terrible last year, people in the front office thought he was taking way too long to come back from injuries, and when he was healthy he was not hitting. It was very possible that Ellsbury would not be with the team long if 2011 mirrored 2010, so people rightfully questioned taking him early.

All that said, since 2008 people have been saying Ellsbury's ceiling is Ichiro-lite, so second or third round seems like a reasonable projection.
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Re: Ellsbury

Postby cs3 » Wed May 18, 2011 2:33 pm

thedude wrote:
Ender wrote:I expect him to go in the 2nd round next year. People seem to forget he was a top 25 player in 2009 before the freak injury in 2010.


He was terrible last year, people in the front office thought he was taking way too long to come back from injuries, and when he was healthy he was not hitting. It was very possible that Ellsbury would not be with the team long if 2011 mirrored 2010, so people rightfully questioned taking him early.

All that said, since 2008 people have been saying Ellsbury's ceiling is Ichiro-lite, so second or third round seems like a reasonable projection.

to be fair he was only healthy for a handful of games (played in just 18 total). he injured his ribs on 2 separate occasions.
Was anyone in the org ever quoted regarding a trade or Ells' recovery time? (im not disputing the claim, just genuinely interested to know if Boston was seriously considering trading him, esp since signing Crawford)

Either way I guess its safe to say that since i can keep him as a 9th rounder next year, i prob shouldnt trade him this season, because theres no way i'd get that kind of value.
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Re: Ellsbury

Postby kab21 » Wed May 18, 2011 8:39 pm

cs3 wrote:to be fair he was only healthy for a handful of games (played in just 18 total). he injured his ribs on 2 separate occasions.
Was anyone in the org ever quoted regarding a trade or Ells' recovery time? (im not disputing the claim, just genuinely interested to know if Boston was seriously considering trading him, esp since signing Crawford)

Either way I guess its safe to say that since i can keep him as a 9th rounder next year, i prob shouldnt trade him this season, because theres no way i'd get that kind of value.


There were legitimate concerns regarding Ellsbury this season. Was he completely healthy? Was he going to hit at the top of the order or the bottom? Was Cameron going to steal PT against lefties? He was a great value in the 6th-8th this year but to act like there weren't any concerns is a hindsight analysis.
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Re: Ellsbury

Postby cs3 » Wed May 18, 2011 9:07 pm

well if you read the very first post in this thread youll see that i posed those EXACT questions way back in March, and i thought those concerns were pretty overblown even at the time.

so i wouldn't call it hindsight analysis at all
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Re: Ellsbury

Postby rjforlife » Thu May 19, 2011 12:52 am

So if he is 2nd/3rd round, who are the 3 hitters before him and the 3 after him? Are we talking Fielder/Holliday/Upton/McCutcheon? I would love to see who you guys rank 3 ahead and 3 behind him.
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Re: Ellsbury

Postby jpbusta » Thu May 19, 2011 1:00 am

It's simple. He had some risks(reasonable) that led ppl to draft him in the 6th~8th rounds, which was a reasonable move.

However, he's performing like a 2nd~3rd rounder now and might continue to do so as the season progresses.

No need to bring it up again and confirm ppl that you made some good assessments before the season.
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Re: Ellsbury

Postby cs3 » Thu May 19, 2011 2:44 am

jpbusta wrote:No need to bring it up again and confirm ppl that you made some good assessments before the season.

i wasnt bringing it up again. i came back to the thread orignally to ask people to asses his current performance, and if they think its sustainable. the guy then tells me that i mad some 'hindsight analysis, which obv wasn't true and is why i wrote the above post.
and if you read his post, and then read what he quoted me on, his reply really doesnt make any sense.. bc it has nothing to do with what i wrote.
i hope i didnt come across a me patting myself on the back, bc thats not what i intended at all. my commentss/concerns were sincere


jpbusta wrote:he's performing like a 2nd~3rd rounder now and might continue to do so as the season progresses.

i think i agree with this part, but im really concerned with his ~20% K rate, which is almost double his career K rate coming into the season. maybe its a fair tradeoff for his increased power, but i just hope his BA doesnt come crashing down at any point.
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Re: Ellsbury

Postby jpbusta » Thu May 19, 2011 2:57 am

cs3 wrote:
jpbusta wrote:he's performing like a 2nd~3rd rounder now and might continue to do so as the season progresses.

i think i agree with this part, but im really concerned with his ~20% K rate, which is almost double his career K rate coming into the season. maybe its a fair tradeoff for his increased power, but i just hope his BA doesnt come crashing down at any point.


I'm not worried. His K numbers are little higher than previous seasons but he's still taking walks and his obp hasn't fallen. His slugging is up which puts him at .800+ ops as of now. He should be just fine. As long as he keeps hitting above .300 and gets me those runs&sbs, there's nothing to worry about. :-)
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Re: Ellsbury

Postby cs3 » Thu May 19, 2011 3:02 am

rjforlife wrote:So if he is 2nd/3rd round, who are the 3 hitters before him and the 3 after him? Are we talking Fielder/Holliday/Upton/McCutcheon? I would love to see who you guys rank 3 ahead and 3 behind him.

ill take a quick crack. based on current production and how i think the rest of yr will go.
lets assume early 3rd rd (altho id say late 3rd /early 4th is prob a little more likely):

just before:
Timmy, Cargo, Howard, Reyes, J. Upton, Stubbs, Kinsler

just after:
Weaver, Pedroia, JJ, Granderson, Choo, McCutch, Posey


this is actually kinda fun, i think you mightve just stumbled onto a new idea for a post series :-D
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Re: Ellsbury

Postby Ender » Thu May 19, 2011 8:25 am

I was talking more from personal experience, nobody I talk to seems to think he can keep up what he is doing and to me it is just what I'd expect from a healthy Ellsbury. The reason I said 2nd round is I figure someone will take a Fielder type in the 1st round and be looking at the draft board and see a 60 SB guy and think it is a perfect match. I'd say he is more 2nd/3rd round than 1st/2nd though so I could see him slipping to early-mid 3rd round too while I think it is really unlikely he can put up the stats it would take to sneak into the 1st round.
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