I tend to go with pitching for the most part, so while it does make the most sense to go with a thoroughbred in the first group (David Wright), in the 2nd group I'd definitely go with Kershaw.... even though I think he's going to take his fair share of losses and once again be like 14-10, you're keeping him for the future where if the Dodgers somehow get their organizational head out of their arse and get better, he could be a 17+ win <10 loss pitcher with an era in the high 2s/low 3s for years to come, tho as of right now his WHIP isn't going to be worldbeating with the walks... he still gets behind hitters.
From there, I'd also consider holding on to Jonathan Sanchez. Sure, he's more late-20s than early/mid 20s, but he's shown consistent improvement over the last 3 seasons, and in the playoffs he had a quality start and a near-quality start (for me quality start = 7IP and 3 or less ER) before a move to the bullpen and then a meh outing in the world series. While Lincecum and Cain got up around ~240-250 IP with the playoffs, Sanchez combined for only 210. The guy has eclipsed a 1K/IP ratio and got down to 3.07/1.23, so with the Giants figuring to be a slightly improved team from last year (that is, unless Lincecum and Cain end up pitching like the White Sox staff did in 2006) he should be able to slip in as the 3rd/4th starter and combine to give a pitching rotation that is in the ballpark with the mighty mighty phightin phils.
From there, I reckon the Billy Butler love is that he's only ~24-25 years old, he has a first round draft pick Pedigree, and two years ago he was .300/23/90 or something, which you figure means that the arrow is pointing up. QUICK, TELL ME WHO PROTECTED BILLY BUTLER IN THE LINEUP IN 2009!!! I know that at lest the mighty Mike Jacobs was there, and he's fighting for a roster spot, if he's not already signed to a minor league deal. Butler regressed last year, but like, many many times you see a young touted kid who comes up and as a big bad season that gets everyone salivating for what could be, and then the next year they fall apart... Gordon Beckham did it here in Chicago (even tho his rookie season was up and down if you watched closely, he was still like .270/14/63 in ~100 games played) Pablo Sandoval did it last year in San Fran (he had a hot cup of coffee, turns around and does a whole season of .330/25/90, then falls off the map last year) and I'm sure there's countless other examples.
Jay Bruce has his fan club because when he first came up he showcased ~20+ HR in ~100 game power, all while hitting .228 or something... so people figured "man, if this guy could play a whole season and hit .275 my prayers would be answered!" and that he did last year, but as I noticed during the year being a Jay Bruce owner, the power tailed off some, as he ended up .281/25/70 in ~148 games played. So now people are left to wonder "OK, if he's got this hitting .275+ thing down maybe that 30+ HR power will come back?"
So unless you're going to shock the world and take Axford as a third keeper, figuring he might hold the closing gig in Milwaukee for a few years with nice sub-3 ERA and K peripherals, it comes down to Butler or Bruce.... and from there, man, it depends on what you value more... if you'd rather have a consistent .290+ hitter with ~20HR power who you hope can settle into a 25-30 HR this year, if not the next few years when he reaches that magical ~27 year old prime, then go with Butler. Or if you're more like me and think "If I take a slight hit in batting average I can find a bunch of clowns who will get me Butleresque numbers" then you might be inclined to roll the dice on Jay Bruce and hope that he breaks out the vintage power and maybe pulls a .280/38/110 season out of his ass.... I guess it depends on the rest of your team and how you're set up at 1B/OF... if you need a solid, if unspectacular, 1B cuz you've got OF production, go with Butler. If you've got 1B locked down keeper or otherwise (Freedie Freeman true believers where you at!?!?) and are willing to roll the dice on Jay Bruce (who last year was a midseason Waiver Wire guy and this year is owned by 97% of teams playing yahoo fantasy baseball) then go with Jay Bruce.
So that's my $4.50 on it (I never gyp you with a mere $0.02) and if you feel so inclined, check out my world of fun @
viewtopic.php?t=424347 and give me some opinion!)
# james
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by Fantasy Addict » Sat Mar 19, 2011 12:43 am 
