Mike Minor a valuable rookie?!

[emenewe5]

In our league we get to keep one rookie (or if we don't keep one, we get to participate in a 1-round keeper draft).

LEAGUE: Season-long points league. Very deep and very competitive.

Most of the "big names" are being kept already. But, I just landed Minor is a small trade. Thoughts on his prospects this year? Should I keep him and roll the dice in the rookie draft?

Thanks!

[RedHopeful]

It all depends on the names left in the rookie draft...

Going forward, I like Minor to be a solid fantasy producer in his career but expectations should be tempered for this year.

[emenewe5]

That's just the problem...I don't know who will be left in the draft. You have to decide if you're keeping a rookie or not before you get to see the list of available rookies in the draft. So, the question is - do I hold onto Minor who has the chance to be a contributor or do I roll the dice and hope to land someone else that might produce more this season?

Long-term success isn't a factor for me. I just want someone who can help me THIS year.

I know Dustin Ackley and Brent Morel aren't currently on a roster. One guy has Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrell and will have to drop one. Right now, if nobody kept a rookie, I'd be #9 in the rookie draft. But, I suspect at last half of those ahead of me keep their rookies. So, I'd have probably no worse than the #4 or #5 pick in the rookie draft. But, do you like Ackley or Morel or Freeman/Kimbrell as much as Minor? Again, it's quality production in 2011 that I'm after.

THANKS!

[emenewe5]

Oh, and Danny Espinosa should be available too (as his owner also has Daniel Hudson).

I guess, the question is - if I'm correct and at least 4 of the teams ahead of me keep their rooks, I'd have these 5 (among others surely) that might be ready for me with the #5 pick. Thoughts on this group?!

Most value for 2011?!

Mike Minor - SP ATL - (I currently hold his rights....and If he holds onto that 5th spot in the rotation, I'm thinking his ceiling is 170 IP at about a K/IP)
Freddie Freeman/Craig Kimbrell - 1B/RP ATL - (One of these guys will be available. I can see Freeman being a serviceable UTI given everyday AB's and Kimbrell could potentially save 25-30 games?)
Danny Espinosa - 2B WAS - (Solid power/speed combo but likely to be a bench/UTI guy for me this year)
Brent Morel - 3B CWS - (I kind of view him as the Freddie Freeman of the hot corner...solid albeit unspectacular production...possible UTI time)
Dustin Ackley - 2B SEA - (Huge upside and could be a long-term keeper but will he even make the club out of ST? The one guy on this list that would make me consider taking a long-term keeper look at him. But, would he survive til my 5th pick anyway?)

[Steve-o]

Given what I am seeing in your draft, I doubt that Ackley would fall to you at 5.

Here's how I rank them for this year, with my projected numbers.

Freeman - 550 PA, .270 AVG, 15+ HR, 5+ SB
Morel - 475 PA, .270 AVG, 10+ HR, 10+ SB
Kimbrell - 50 IP, 60 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, potential closer
Minor - 150 IP, 150 K, 4.25 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Espinosa - 525 PA, .240 AVG, 15+ HR, 10+ SB

Given my ranking of them for this year, you lose nothing by throwing him back in. At worst case, he'll likely be available to you again this year.

BTW, long term value I rank them like this:

Freeman
Minor
Kimbrell
Morel
Espinosa

I just don't like Espinosa's bat.