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Hellickson and Chacin

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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby jackie hayes » Sat Mar 19, 2011 12:21 am

bigh0rt wrote:
MTUCache wrote:
HesterMofet wrote:I agree, and the East looks to be as strong as it's been in years with what Boston & Baltimore have done this winter.

MTUCache wrote:How many innings are you getting out of your 5th/6th starter? 100? Unless you've got no IP-limit you're picking and choosing good matchups for them anyway, so season projections are basically useless. A young kid in the AL-East may end up with 140K/3.80/1.30 overall and a 100K/3.30/1.15 when you take out his games against the Yankees/Sox.


So wtf are we debating here? Haven't we already covered this?

HesterMofet wrote:Read & comprehend what's going on in the thread.

Chacin has already done what you're hoping Hellickson can do. Over a K per inning, 1.27 WHIP, 3.28 ERA in nearly 150 innings last year. If you wanna play the fun game where you sit him against his bad matchups, then he gets even better too. Chacin has shown he can do it over a season, while Hellickson has shown he can do it for three starts. Could he come out and rock the tires in 2011? Absolutely. I'd just bank on Chacin being the more likely of the two this season. He'll have more favorable matchups and ballparks, and was an absolute stud away from Coors Field last year, where he wasn't all that bad either.


Eh...I'm going with Hellickson (in most leagues). I like them both a good deal, but I don't like throwing out minor league numbers, and Hellickson has a clear advantage in those -- walk & k rates especially. Chacin had a k/9 in the 7s for most of his minor league career. If his rate dips towards that while the walks remain high (and they've always been high), noone should be shocked. 100 extra MLB innings aren't much to bank on. I'm not sure about the parks -- while Petco and Dodger stadium are good, Coors is still Coors, and that's half the games. I thought the Rays park was decent for pitchers, if not the best. I don't know how those balance out, but I'm not convinced it's any better for Chacin than a wash.

In Chacin's favor are the league/division and his gb tendencies. I'm willing to be convinced, and those are def nice pluses, but for now I'm going with the minor league track record.

BUT...in the op's case, where he's thinking about fantasy playoffs and a possible shutdown/winddown of Hellickson -- okay, that's a legit concern, and that bridges the gap some. Personally, I still probably go with Hellickson, but it's something to look into.
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby cs3 » Sat Mar 19, 2011 4:42 am

Chacin had a k/9 in the 7s for most of his minor league career. If his rate dips towards that while the walks remain high (and they've always been high), noone should be shocked.


His K rate actually averaged out to be almost exactly 8K/9 for all his MiLB innings. And of course it was over 9 last season across 137 MLB innings. His walk rate was not high at all in the minors, averaging under 3BB/9 which is better than the big league average,
and his K/BB was over 3 which is also very good.
it wasnt until last year in the bigs that his BB crept up to 4 per 9
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby jackie hayes » Sat Mar 19, 2011 10:04 am

cs3 wrote:
Chacin had a k/9 in the 7s for most of his minor league career. If his rate dips towards that while the walks remain high (and they've always been high), noone should be shocked.


His K rate actually averaged out to be almost exactly 8K/9 for all his MiLB innings. And of course it was over 9 last season across 137 MLB innings. His walk rate was not high at all in the minors, averaging under 3BB/9 which is better than the big league average,
and his K/BB was over 3 which is also very good.
it wasnt until last year in the bigs that his BB crept up to 4 per 9


Okay, call it 8, with a bb/9 of just under 3. Hellickson managed a k/9 of about 10, with a bb/9 of about 2. A drop in k/9 and a rise in bb/9 in moving to the majors isn't unusual. My rough guess is that Hellickson will see his walks increase a bit, but I don't expect the strikeouts to go down much. I don't see Chacin's walks dropping by much, but I think the strikeout rate was surprising. Like I said, I'm a big fan of both, but I'm still higher on Hellickson.
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby sinicalypse » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:55 pm

I'd rather have Hellickson... I think he has better stuff than Chacon, not to mention he's a bigger name than Chacon. The best part was I rated him pretty high (like 5th-7th starter high) in my yahoo pre-draft rankings, so I ended up with a dearth of bonafide closers and Hellickson on every one of my autopick deaft leagues. Since then, based on his name's buzz value alone, I've been able to trade him str8up for Jose Valverde in 2 leagues, or package him in with Matt Holliday to get a Dan Uggla and a low-end closer-type (Kevin Gregg) --- it's great. When teams come out of autodraft with someone like Zack Greinke or Yovani Gallardo leading their SP staff to the point where they wanna be the slick dude that rolls dice on Javier Vazquez, you can use Hellickson's name/buzz to trade him like he's a 15+ win 3.30/1.20 175+K pitcher even tho he hasn't thrown more than 4 starts in the bigs.

You can do the same with Mike Stanton on offense... in a league where I've got Marmol + Brian Wilson along with ~2-3 possible closers out of the Whitesox/Rays/Rangers situation, I was able to trade John Axford and Mike Stanton for Adam Dunn.... sure stanton COULD burn me and hit like .275/40/110 and maybe dunn gets injured or just outright sucks, but I doubt it.... I've targeted Adam Dunn as a round ~2-3 production bat with a round ~4-5 drafting location, figuring that short of Ryan Howard and/or Prince Fielder going back to their 45/140 type ways, I've got a bat that's going to give me raw HR/RBIs in the neighborhood as 2nd round picks but for a lot cheaper.

So basically, I like Hellickson more... he obviously has way more upside than Chacin, not to mention in a potential trade someone isn't going to be like OOOOOH IT'S JHOULYS CHACIN and be prompted to make the trade on name value.... you get that on Hellickson, cuz like, ESPN and the fantasy baseball "expert" websites all speak his name as a super-potential kid... so if I can cash in on that name being worth ~15 wins 3.30/1.20 with 175K without him ever starting more than 5 games in MLB, that's worth it to me.

Worst case scenario? Nobody takes me up on my trade and I'm stuck with Jeremy Hellickson as my 5th-7th starter.. WOE IS ME!
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby cs3 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 5:17 am

So basically, I like Hellickson more... he obviously has way more upside than Chacin, not to mention in a potential trade someone isn't going to be like OOOOOH IT'S JHOULYS CHACIN and be prompted to make the trade on name value.... you get that on Hellickson, cuz like, ESPN and the fantasy baseball "expert" websites all speak his name as a super-potential kid... so if I can cash in on that name being worth ~15 wins 3.30/1.20 with 175K without him ever starting more than 5 games in MLB, that's worth it to me.


This is exactly what im finding out.
I drafted a ton of young pitching on one of my teams:
SP: Roy Halladay (Phi - SP)
SP: Shaun Marcum (Mil - SP)
SP: Matt Garza (ChC - SP)
SP: Jeremy Hellickson (TB - SP,RP)
BN: Jhoulys Chacin (Col - SP,RP)
BN: Clay Buchholz (Bos - SP)
BN: Mat Latos (SD - SP)
BN: Daniel Hudson (Ari - SP)

We have pretty shallow benches so I only have room to carry 7sp, so im lookig to trade one or more of them away... either packaged with garza or marcum to get a proven #2 haren/weaver type, or to get draft picks. and so far i've had 5-6 different inquiries about Hellickson, a couple on Latos, and zero on Chacin - its like nobody even knows what team he plays on. so Helly is definitely more valuable from a trade perspective alone
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby cs3 » Thu Mar 24, 2011 12:13 am

i know this is not the right forum, but just as a reference for what you may be able to aquire via trade:
I shipped off Hellickson + 2012 Rd 12 pick
and recieved
a 2012 7th round pick
not a bad return considering i drafted him in the 15th.

on another note, do you guys have any preferences for one of:
de la rosa, J garcia, floyd, zambrano, A sanchez? they are all seem to be pretty similar in value this year.
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby Inukchuk » Thu Mar 24, 2011 9:22 am

sinicalypse wrote:I'd rather have Hellickson... I think he has better stuff than Chacon, not to mention he's a bigger name than Chacon.


Also prefer Hellickson since he still plays baseball.


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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby silverZ » Thu Mar 24, 2011 10:51 am

I've landed both of them in my drafts so far. I plan on shopping Hellickson around if he gets off to a hot start because of his name value. I prefer Chacin over the season simply because of the AL east factor.
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