Hellickson and Chacin

[MTUCache]

Read & comprehend what's going on in the thread.

Lol.

[AllDay]

I'll take Hellickson and the upside.

I want to own that young SP that has that huge breakout year. Hellickson seems like a better bet to achieve that than Chacin.

Chacin seems a better bet to log 200 above average innings. That's not really what I'm drafting a young SP for.

[Broncmet724]

The big difference I see is Hellickson pitches in the AL East, and Chacin doesn't.

[HesterMofet]

The big difference I see is Hellickson pitches in the AL East, and Chacin doesn't.

I agree, and the East looks to be as strong as it's been in years with what Boston & Baltimore have done this winter.

[MTUCache]

I agree, and the East looks to be as strong as it's been in years with what Boston & Baltimore have done this winter.

How many innings are you getting out of your 5th/6th starter? 100? Unless you've got no IP-limit you're picking and choosing good matchups for them anyway, so season projections are basically useless. A young kid in the AL-East may end up with 140K/3.80/1.30 overall and a 100K/3.30/1.15 when you take out his games against the Yankees/Sox.

So wtf are we debating here? Haven't we already covered this?

Read & comprehend what's going on in the thread.

[bigh0rt]

I agree, and the East looks to be as strong as it's been in years with what Boston & Baltimore have done this winter.

How many innings are you getting out of your 5th/6th starter? 100? Unless you've got no IP-limit you're picking and choosing good matchups for them anyway, so season projections are basically useless. A young kid in the AL-East may end up with 140K/3.80/1.30 overall and a 100K/3.30/1.15 when you take out his games against the Yankees/Sox.

So wtf are we debating here? Haven't we already covered this?

Read & comprehend what's going on in the thread.

Chacin has already done what you're hoping Hellickson can do. Over a K per inning, 1.27 WHIP, 3.28 ERA in nearly 150 innings last year. If you wanna play the fun game where you sit him against his bad matchups, then he gets even better too. Chacin has shown he can do it over a season, while Hellickson has shown he can do it for three starts. Could he come out and rock the tires in 2011? Absolutely. I'd just bank on Chacin being the more likely of the two this season. He'll have more favorable matchups and ballparks, and was an absolute stud away from Coors Field last year, where he wasn't all that bad either.

[HesterMofet]

MTUCache - most in this thread are discussing which of the two are a safer bet to not be completely useless in '11. Also, most are looking at guys like Chacin & Hellboy towards the end of their drafts as guys who can provide decent ROI for their team...it's a fair discussion. I'm not real sure what you're trying to prove.

Opinions differ & given the choice, some guys would rather take a chance on Helli & some would rather take a chance on Chacin.

[MTUCache]

I'm not real sure what you're trying to prove.

Three things.

1.) That I'm arguing the exact same thing as everyone else in this thread, just pointing out the fact that "safe" or "safer" doesn't really come into effect when you're discussing a 20th round pick who's going to be your #6 SP and you're only considering upside.

and

2.) That "Read & comprehend what's going on in the thread." is a d-bag statement when you've got less than 15 posts on this forum and then you essentially make the same argument I've already made.

and

3.) This argument doesn't really matter, because nobody can accurately predict which of these guys (or a dozen others) are going to be worth picking up for the specific matchups you're going to be playing your #5/6 SP in anyway... so it's not something to stress over when you're in a draft.

It's essentially equivalent to the guy who's debating which numbers to play in the lotto at 7-11 every morning... it doesn't effing matter. In the end he's just a guy standing in my way while I'm trying to get my coffee and get the hell out of that place.

Grab your half-dozen lotto tickets at the end of your draft and hope one of them hits. If they don't, throw them in the trash and grab a bunch of new ones. Assuming that all of these tickets have a relatively equal chance of hitting, then the important thing isn't which lotto tickets you get, it's that you have a big handful of them.

[HesterMofet]

Good grief, the age-old post count attack. Would it make you feel better if I said I've been reading this board longer than you've been a member? Does that make my e-territory larger than yours?

I wasn't making an argument based off of anything you had already stated - I haven't even quoted any of your material related to Helli/Chacin, so I'm not sure where you're getting that from either. Honestly, I stopped reading your first post when you condescendingly talked about lol'ing at people who think either of these kids are safe when not one single person in this thread claimed such. That concept isn't the premise of the thread & the majority of the people responding got that, besides you of course.

You've arrogantly made it clear that you disagree with the concept of discussing late round players...they're all just lottery tickets with equal minimal chances to out-perform their draft value. So why even bother with this thread to begin with?

For the record, these are all rhetorical questions and I'm done with this argument. I'll refrain from allowing you to get under my skin next time.

[MTUCache]

... and I'm done with this argument.

Agreed.

You've arrogantly made it clear that you disagree with the concept of discussing late round players...they're all just lottery tickets with equal minimal chances to out-perform their draft value. So why even bother with this thread to begin with?

Clarification... I'm not saying it's not worth discussing. I'm saying that it's important to keep these kinds of minor decisions in the proper frame of reference and realize how much significance this is going to have in your overall performance in the season.

Of course it's still worthwhile for discussion... arguing over insignificant details that make almost no impact on our overall lives is what fantasy sports is all about. I was (admittedly, arrogantly) putting the discussion into perspective.

So, beyond just saying "flip a coin".... Chacin. If for no other reason than I figure I'll spot-start him for his half-dozen games at Petco and Dodger Stadium.