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Hellickson and Chacin

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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby cs3 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 5:07 pm

the main reason i bring up the discussion is because im contemplating trading (or possibly even dropping) one of them.
in my H2H league my rotation is incredibly talented but extremely young, and therefore a high risk for catatrophe. i have:
Halladay
Johnson
Latos
Marcum
Dan Hudson
Hellickson
Chacin
I just saw that Garza is available as a FA and i looking to acquire him,to guarantee me another guy who will throw 200 innings and not be limited in any way. I know he is very susceptible to teh HR. and his upside is only like a 3.80era and 175k's but he definitely needs to be owned adn is likely a top 35 SP. he would also dramatically reduce some of my risk.

i thikn Hellboy has more trade value than Chacin based on name recogntion alone, but if i cant trade either one,
would you drop either of them for Garza?
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby MTUCache » Thu Mar 17, 2011 5:27 pm

It makes me laugh, people talking about "safe" with a pitcher who's getting drafted outside the top-50 SP.

Honestly, who's looking for a "safe" player in the 19th round? Nobody! They're looking for break-out, high-upside, future-studs so they can feel smart.

How many innings are you getting out of your 5th/6th starter? 100? Unless you've got no IP-limit you're picking and choosing good matchups for them anyway, so season projections are basically useless. A young kid in the AL-East may end up with 140K/3.80/1.30 overall and a 100K/3.30/1.15 when you take out his games against the Yankees/Sox.

Bottomline, if you're looking at trading for or trading away one of these guys, you don't have to convince yourself of their value... you just need to find somebody else who doesn't understand what that value is.

If you're just trying to justify dropping one to pickup Garza (because you have a good feeling about him or you need an innings-eater), I'd argue that it doesn't matter. Outside the top-50 you're going to have any number of hot replacement-level young-guns who have high K/9s and a good matchup for that week. If Kennedy, Shields, Gio, De la Rosa, Romero, Edwin, Richard, etc, etc, ad nauseum are looking at a good matchup that week, they're far more valuable than holding onto either one of these guys.

These are near replacement-level guys. Replace them as needed, however often you like. Who knows, you may end up dropping both of them because Dice-K and AJ Burnett are looking good. :-b
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby cs3 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 5:36 pm

MTUCache wrote:How many innings are you getting out of your 5th/6th starter? 100? Unless you've got no IP-limit you're picking and choosing good matchups for them anyway, so season projections are basically useless. A young kid in the AL-East may end up with 140K/3.80/1.30 overall and a 100K/3.30/1.15 when you take out his games against the Yankees/Sox.

These are near replacement-level guys. Replace them as needed, however often you like. Who knows, you may end up dropping both of them because Dice-K and AJ Burnett are looking good. :-b


we have no innings limit in this league, and rules that make streaming not very enticing. so guys who throw more innings over the year are much more valuable
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby Matthias » Thu Mar 17, 2011 6:44 pm

MTUCache wrote:It makes me laugh, people talking about "safe" with a pitcher who's getting drafted outside the top-50 SP.

Hellickson went as the 26th-highest pitcher in my league, same salary as Liriano and Billingsley and just under Brett Anderson and Bumgarner.
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby CBMGreatOne » Thu Mar 17, 2011 6:50 pm

Matthias wrote:
MTUCache wrote:It makes me laugh, people talking about "safe" with a pitcher who's getting drafted outside the top-50 SP.

Hellickson went as the 26th-highest pitcher in my league, same salary as Liriano and Billingsley and just under Brett Anderson and Bumgarner.


I'm as surprised to hear that Brett Anderson and Bumgarner went in the top 25 as I am that Hellickson went 26th. All way too high. Is this a keeper league?
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby Matthias » Thu Mar 17, 2011 7:28 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:
Matthias wrote:
MTUCache wrote:It makes me laugh, people talking about "safe" with a pitcher who's getting drafted outside the top-50 SP.

Hellickson went as the 26th-highest pitcher in my league, same salary as Liriano and Billingsley and just under Brett Anderson and Bumgarner.

I'm as surprised to hear that Brett Anderson and Bumgarner went in the top 25 as I am that Hellickson went 26th. All way too high. Is this a keeper league?

Sort of but not really. You can keep 3 players. So it's unlikely that any of those will be kept unless they have an absolutely breakout season.

The league does count IP as a 6th category, though, so quality starting pitching is at a premium. Some of the pitchers beneath them who went in the teens (they went for $15) were: Wandy, Danks, Morrow, Lilly, Gio, Myers, Kuroda, Garza, Buccholz, and Braden. But with auctions, timing of nomination does play some part.
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby CBMGreatOne » Thu Mar 17, 2011 7:34 pm

Matthias wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:
Matthias wrote:Hellickson went as the 26th-highest pitcher in my league, same salary as Liriano and Billingsley and just under Brett Anderson and Bumgarner.

I'm as surprised to hear that Brett Anderson and Bumgarner went in the top 25 as I am that Hellickson went 26th. All way too high. Is this a keeper league?

Sort of but not really. You can keep 3 players. So it's unlikely that any of those will be kept unless they have an absolutely breakout season.

The league does count IP as a 6th category, though, so quality starting pitching is at a premium. Some of the pitchers beneath them who went in the teens (they went for $15) were: Wandy, Danks, Morrow, Lilly, Gio, Myers, Kuroda, Garza, Buccholz, and Braden. But with auctions, timing of nomination does play some part.


For my money, Wandy, Morrow, Lilly, Buchholz all day long over Bumgarner, Hellickson. I can see how the keeper aspect could inflate the value of the ones who went before them, albeit not to the extent that they actually went for a higher price. Sounds like a very "upside hungry" pool of drafters, to an extreme that I haven't yet seen in any draft I've done. Bumgarner, Hellickson, Chacin, Dan Hudson, and the like are all guys who belong outside of the top 40. Something between 30 and 100 quality IP as a rookie very frequently does NOT portend to a great sophomore campaign. Most of those guys will face an adjustment period this year. Trying to guess which one or two won't is precisely why they aren't top 35 guys at least. I love all of them in my drafts, for the right price, but I'm not taking them anywhere near top 25. Way too many quality arms out there with 500+ innings of track record.
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby HesterMofet » Thu Mar 17, 2011 8:46 pm

MTUCache wrote:It makes me laugh, people talking about "safe" with a pitcher who's getting drafted outside the top-50 SP.


Who said either of them are safe? Safer doesn't necessarily mean safe. The discussion is who is the safer bet to log you solid innings and not be completely useless. If you draft either one of them expecting them to bolster your staff, then you've got some issues.

Read & comprehend what's going on in the thread.
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby CBMGreatOne » Thu Mar 17, 2011 8:52 pm

HesterMofet wrote:
MTUCache wrote:It makes me laugh, people talking about "safe" with a pitcher who's getting drafted outside the top-50 SP.


Who said either of them are safe? Safer doesn't necessarily mean safe. The discussion is who is the safer bet to log you solid innings and not be completely useless. If you draft either one of them expecting them to bolster your staff, then you've got some issues.

Read & comprehend what's going on in the thread.


I don't think his point was to argue the definition of the word "safe" as it applies to fantasy sports so much as it was to point out the irony that anyone would consider even for one second whether any given player drafted outside of the top 150 overall was safe or not. By this point in the draft you aren't looking for "safe." It is justified to suggest that we shouldn't even be talking about it in the first place.
Last edited by CBMGreatOne on Thu Mar 17, 2011 10:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hellickson and Chacin

Postby cs3 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 9:05 pm

i agree that the "safe" argument is a little non-sensical in this context.
i originally used it to refer to the # of innings Chacin would throw this year as compared to Hellickson, nothing more.

Obviously when you draft Dan Hudson, Helly, AND Chacin (as i did) you arent playing it "safe". see my draft here:
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=424255
youre looking for at least one of them to break out and either:
1)turn into a high value piece of your staff, OR
2)to be an expendable piece to be used in a trade to upgrade at another position.

if they have a really rough stretch and you need the roster spot, they can be dropped and it doesnt really hurt anything
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