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Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby Scooter1027 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 1:34 am

I would agree with dAnzac on Markakis still being a bit overrated. I don't know that we can say with any level of certainty that he's a 20 HR guy...his ISO has dropped for 3 straight years now (.185-.160-.138). Then you have to consider the decline in base stealing (from being a potential 20 SB guy to maybe 10 as an upper end projection now). I'm just looking for more out of my OFers than 15 HR/7 SB. Now if you project him for 20+ bombs, then yeah, he's worth where he's being drafted...I'm just not sure I see it.

That said, his ADP is fairly reasonable now, and given the right roster composition (roster with power/speed guys with perhaps some lower averages, guys like Dunn/C. Young/Stubbs amongst others), then Markakis' consistently good BA could be an asset. That's one scenario where I could see myself going for him.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby dAnzac » Sun Mar 20, 2011 2:05 am

jake_twothousandfive wrote:Umm, no. How the eff is he overrated?


jake_twothousandfive wrote:Last season his MDP was 58, this season it's 113. That's nuts.


You just answered your own question Jake. :-b ;-D :-b
Would you draft Kosuke Fukudome with pick 113? Because Markakis had a similar season to him. (And with 13 HRs from only 358 at-bats, Fukudome was arguably better)
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby fezzik » Sun Mar 20, 2011 4:26 am

I would say mine are (note all references to round #'s are assuming a 12 team league):

Nelson Cruz - If he's available in the 3rd during my pick I'm probably going to draft him.

Derrek Lee - I think he bounces back with a very nice season and he can be drafted quite cheaply. He had a very nice second half of 2010, so I don't buy that he's done yet due to age. I'm targeting him more than anyone else in this list if the league starts CI. I think I just drafted him in the 16th in the Cafe ECL league. His is recovering from a sore wrist at the moment though.

Jack McGee - I think he ultimately wins the closer battle in TB and they move away from a closer by committee situation. I've seen him going around round 19 or 20. Should give you some K's as well.

Angel Pagan - I see a lot of backlash against him, but I like him a lot at where he's being drafted. All the fangraph projections for him are very favorable (.285/10hr/25-30sb). In a 5x5 roto league he has considerable value. I just drafted him in round 14.

Wandy Rodriguez - He's not a particularly great value this season, but he's done very well for me in past seasons...solid K/9 with his nice changeup, but people are always turned off because he doesn't seem to have overpowering stuff. You can't put too much stock in a single second half performance, but Wandy's last year was pretty ridiculous.

Hiroki Kuroda - For someone late who can lower your whip and provide a solid era...I like where he's going in drafts. His K/9 numbers are only average (or just below), but he should contribute everywhere else (assuming he's healthy enough to pitch).
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby jake_twothousandfive » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:18 am

dAnzac wrote:
jake_twothousandfive wrote:Umm, no. How the eff is he overrated?


jake_twothousandfive wrote:Last season his MDP was 58, this season it's 113. That's nuts.


You just answered your own question Jake. :-b ;-D :-b
Would you draft Kosuke Fukudome with pick 113? Because Markakis had a similar season to him. (And with 13 HRs from only 358 at-bats, Fukudome was arguably better)

I'm saying he fell too far. Wouldn't touch Fukudome at 113.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby HesterMofet » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:36 am

Along with most everyone else, I'm targeting Brandon Morrow as well. 16:3 K/BB in 12 innings this spring....I'm liking this arm slot adjustment.

Keeping close tabs on Brandon Belt too. Doesn't look like he's going to make the Opening Day roster though.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby kab21 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:49 am

I don't do must owns but there are some guys that I really want this year.

Carlos Santana in the 6th/7th
Mark Reynolds in the 6th-8th
Hanson, Gallardo, Hamels in the 6th (definitely if they fall into the 7th)
Mad Max just after that group
Gio, DHudson and Morrow (not in H2H) in the 10th
Zimmerman, Chacin and Matusz late
Jorge Posada is a great value
Chone Figgins and Gbeckham

And perhaps the most puzzling - Michael Cuddyer - whenever he's expected to perform he doesn't, whenever he is expected to suck he performs. and he has sneaky 3B eligibility (in some leagues) - also one of my favorite players
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby sinicalypse » Sun Mar 20, 2011 12:21 pm

Well since this thread does say Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts I'm going to change the game up a little bit.

- Adam Dunn: He's a target/must-own for me because I'm going heavy into pitching, and he'll give you power #s that aren't too distant from a 2nd round 1B (that is, unless Prince and Ryan Howard go 46/141 again) in the 5th round. In my Winners League he went in the third round for this very reason... He's playing in arguably the biggest bandbox in MLB, so with a more potent lineup around him in that park he could be a nice 40+/120ish dark-horse. Having Adam Dunn as your secondary power-bat allows you more flexibility.

- Vladimir Guerrero: Here's a guy who is a .320 career hitter who answered injury concerns last year by going .300/29/115, heck, even during his injury-addled 2009 season the other day I calculated that if you take his performance from when he finally stopped getting injured and multiplied it out over a whole season you'd end up with .290/33/87. I'll give you that the guy did swoon from mid-july to mid-september, but still, that took him from a top-10 overall bat to #29 overall where he ended up. I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled something like .315/23/90 out of his arse this year, or who knows, maybe the guy has a fullblown .330/30/100 season in him... the guy's a hall of famer, and he can be yours for a song circa rounds 9-13.

- Carlos Zambrano: Here's another guy who can be yours circa rounds 15-18 or something like that. At the end of last year after his bullpen demotion and his siesta away from the team, he came back circa august 10th and won 8 of his last 10 starts, giving up no more than 2 ER in each start. He had a 5.71 ERA when he was reinstated on the team and he finished with 3.33 ERA, which was actually his best in years. While it seems like this guy has been around forever, he's only turning 30 in June. This year there's no Lou Pinella led "WE'RE GOING TO WIN. PERIOD" crap and there's an actual manager there, so for the first time since 2006 Carlos doesn't have expectations to be the ace of a world-series-contender, so I look for him to have a return to ~2006ish form, which was 16 wins 3.40era and a 1.29 whip and 210K in 214IP. The Ks might not be quite that high, but if you look at his last two years his K rate is back up. He was crusing along with a ~1.38 ERA through his first ~4 starts before the Reds got a couple'a homeruns off of him, which caused him to claim that he wasn't showing them everything. He looks fine to me.

Otherwise, my "targets"

- Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester or David Price, Tommy Hanson, Matt Cain or Mat Latos (tho I prefer Cain). I see it like I'm taking Felix in round 2, and the only time I haven't gotten Felix in round 2 was one time when Halladay was still there @ pick 14 or something. I also nabbed Hellickson circa rounds 12-15, and have been using him as tradebait to fill the holes in my team. Sure, he could be really good, but right now I'm getting nice trades back just on his name alone.

- Gordon Beckham and Neil Walker at the 2B position. You can usually end up with both of them for cheap, like rounds 10+ cheap.

- Edwin Encarnacion has a fighting chance to stay healthy this year as he's a primary DH. Last year in ~330 at bats he pulled a .250/21/52 type line, which projects out nicely over ~600 at bats if you think he can duplicate that again.

Oh yeah and I bet you can get Frank Francisco for cheap. I've seen him on waiver wires in a couple'a leagues, even after he was formally named closer.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby OldEnglishZ » Sun Mar 20, 2011 2:55 pm

Targets/Breakouts

-Adam Dunn: Environment will boost his numbers even more. Lineup with Rios, Konerko, Ramirez, and potential in Beckham, I want him this year.

-Travis Snider: Post-hyper sleeper. Injury last year, only 23 and still managed 14 HRs in 298 ABs. Could reach double digits steals as well.

-BJ Upton: I love power/speed guys and lets remember he is only 26! If you can spare AVG points, 40+ steals and 15-20+ HRs are worth drafting for a guy getting a bad rap.

-Coco Crisp: 25+ steals and double digit homerun potential along with a .277 career hitter make him a decent value

-Deeper: Michael Saunders: Post-hyper top 100 prospect. Will get a chance starting this year. Double digit HR and SBs potential. I wanted to put Peter Bourjos here, but I think Saunders has more power upside and Bourjos has more speed.


Must Own

Brandon Morrow- As mentioned in here before, 200 K pitcher for pretty cheap right now. ERA above 4.00 has others worried, dont be the one to miss out on him!

Chris Perez- Career 1.19 WHIP. I think the ERA will be a little higher than his 1.71 last year. Either way, a 25 year old closer that will be in alot of tight games. The Indians wont contend, but they will compete.

Robinson Cano- Head and shoulders above the competition at 2B. Position scarcity factors mostly into this.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby wrf14 » Mon Mar 21, 2011 2:17 pm

Moustakas was the one guy I felt was must-own for me in a keeper league so hopefully I don't have to worry about 3B ever again even if I have to wait some this year until he is called up.

Hunter Pence I really like him this year even if the Houston line-up doesn't look very good. 25/20 with 90/90 runs/rbi, I think he can approach top 25-30 overall rank with slightly building on his stats from last year but the run/rbi may be limited due to Astros offense.

Michael Pineda Im a huge fan of as a Seattle fan but is young and may struggle but still worth taking a flyer on...Dont forget about Bedard he will start in the rotation and could be very good for a couple months before he gets injured again.

Bud Norris and Edison Volquez are two other guys I will take late for the high K rates but also risky with control problems. Guys that could put up great numbers but also easy to drop if they have too negative an impact on WHIP etc. Good trade bait if they start hot too.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby CRob44 » Mon Mar 21, 2011 3:09 pm

i like neil walker
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