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Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

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Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby Super Manny » Wed Mar 16, 2011 1:53 pm

It seems that around this time each year, I head over to the Cafe for my last round of pre-draft prep. Generally, there's a thread near the top with everyone's personal favorites heading into the season - guys that you're trying to field on every team possible, at any cost. I've always considered this an invaluable resource and cheat sheet, but this year, going page-by-page back through January, I wasn't able to find such information, at least in one consolidated place. With this said, here we go...

Who are your targets, must-owns, and breakout candidates (both pitching and hitting) as we sit on the doorstep of the 2011 fantasy baseball season?

Accompanying comments, thoughts, and analysis are not only welcomed, but encouraged! ;-D
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby HesterMofet » Wed Mar 16, 2011 4:24 pm

Guys that will be on most, if not all, of my teams this year....

Cole Hamels: Fully expecting him to out-perform his 6th/7th round slot. I think having Halladay in the clubhouse has really taught him a lot about how to approach the game. Completely comfortable with taking another bat in the 4th & landing my ace 2 rounds later.

Colby Rasmus: Still only 24, could potentially put up Hunter Pence type numbers...good pop with decent speed, plenty to like at around 100.

Pedro Alvarez: Looks good for 25+/100+. Won't give you much on the .avg side but the power is legit. A nice mid-round option with plenty of upside at a position that's fairly thin this year.

Jhoulys Chacin: Has great stuff..should be good for a 3.50/1.30/180K line. '11 might not be his breakout year, but I'm taking a chance hoping for the best. Upside, upside, upside.

Gio Gonzalez: Has the nasty fastball/curveball combo and is apparently working hard on the change-up...if he can command all 3 pitches with some consistency then watch out for a major breakout. Making a move into the top-15 amongst is definitely not out of the question....especially if the K/9 rate creeps back up to around 9.

Jose Tabata: Doesn't have an enormous ceiling, but I think he can give you a .300 avg with some nice SB & R numbers...very good value for a 20th round pick IMO. Best case scenario: he blossoms and gives you an Angel Pagan line.

Jordan Zimmermann: All reports have him healthy and dialed in. Nasty repertoire with the mid 90s fastball and plus slider. Solid 20+ rounder that has the potential to out-perform his draft slot by 60-70 spots.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby skjelstrom » Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:07 pm

Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder - I think they are going way to late in the draft. If my initial draft position allows it I will definitely be grabbing one of them.

B.J. Upton - I've never been a fan of him in the past but I think he can put together a decent average this year and becomes a top 10 OF.

Miguel Montero - I always punt C until late and he is a great candidate to break out.

Mark Reynolds - Only if I draft enough good players to hold my average stable earlier. But he is going way too late and I could see myself grabbing him in many of my leagues. Great power here.

Justin Verlander or Cole Hamels - Depending on where they go I WILL have one of these. I agree with Hester in that the aces (specifically Halladay) have had a great impact on Hamels and he will continue to improve. I have Verlander slightly above Hamels because I think he can work out his first inning bug and put up a magnificent season.

Brandon Morrow - I'm not sure why I have such an infatuation with him but I just love the guy this year. I think he will pull off a full season of his second half last year and be a stud.

Jordon Zimmerman - Going very late and could be a major stud.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 17, 2011 1:04 am

Jay Bruce - Must own.

Furcal is someone I simply will not own.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby Scooter1027 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 2:10 am

Ender wrote:Jay Bruce - Must own.

Furcal is someone I simply will not own.


Curious as to your reasons on both. Particularly Furcal...I wouldn't target him certainly, but it's not like he's going for a real high price and SS is pretty miserable. Seems like he could be a decent .285/90+ R/20+ SB option. Is it just injury?

I don't have many "must owns", but I do like:

Mike Stanton -- Like him to be a potential 35+ HR guy who can be had for less than most guys with that power output are going for.

Ben Zobrist -- Looking like a good value play, particularly in leagues that have MI/CI type slots. Multi-positional eligibilty, 15 HR/20 SB type production with playable R/RBI numbers.

Tommy Hanson -- Just a real good feeling about him this year.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby dAnzac » Thu Mar 17, 2011 2:44 am

I am in two leagues this year, and so far I have doubled up on:

Mitch Moreland (My favourite power sleeper this year. If he gets OF eligibility early on he will be doubly Le Sex. )
Jorge De La Rosa (Is 2011 where he puts it all together? I say yes)
Ryan Dempster (Dependable, unfashionable, solid)
Mark Melancon (The Astros traded for this cat for a reason. Electric stuff, GBs, Ks, aggressive closer mentality. Brandon LyWHO?)

And a couple of minor leaguers:

Jerry Sands (A bust out power campaign in 2010, rumoured to be playing 3B in 2011)
Ryan Lavarnway (All he does is hit hit hit and hit some more. The Red Sox are going to have to mash him in somewhere.)
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby Super Manny » Sat Mar 19, 2011 10:12 pm

Great stuff so far, guys.

Keep them coming! ;-D
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby footballisbetter.com » Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:34 pm

I am a Nick Markakis fan this year. I have always liked him but I think he is now a "post hype sleeper". He is undervalued now because he has disappointed lately, but now he has some protection in the lineup.
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby dAnzac » Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:48 pm

footballisbetter.com wrote:I am a Nick Markakis fan this year. I have always liked him but I think he is now a "post hype sleeper". He is undervalued now because he has disappointed lately, but now he has some protection in the lineup.


Last year it took him 629 at-bats to get 12 HRs.
He is the very embodiment of over-rated. :-P
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Re: Your 2011 Targets, Must-Owns, and Breakouts

Postby jake_twothousandfive » Sun Mar 20, 2011 12:26 am

dAnzac wrote:
footballisbetter.com wrote:I am a Nick Markakis fan this year. I have always liked him but I think he is now a "post hype sleeper". He is undervalued now because he has disappointed lately, but now he has some protection in the lineup.


Last year it took him 629 at-bats to get 12 HRs.
He is the very embodiment of over-rated. :-P

Umm, no. How the eff is he overrated?

Last season his MDP was 58, this season it's 113. That's nuts. Recency bias in full effect. Markakis is a 20 HR guy, not a 10 HR guy. He's a lock for a good BA and he'll be hitting in a vastly improved lineup this season. Even if he's not hitting HRs, he's hitting doubles. He hits the ball with authority. XBHs are not an issue, his Runs and RBIs will be back. He's not going to single-handedly win any cats for you but he makes a positive contribution in a number of areas. At where he's going in drafts, I'll take that all day.

I wouldn't call him a "post hype sleeper" but he's definitely undervalued.
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