1st yr keeper league, what round to take Strasburg?

[cs3]

Im soon drafting for a first year keeper league (6 players kept), where keepers will cost a draft pick in the round they were drafted, and the cost increases by 3 rounds each year they are kept after. We have 24 man rosters and 3 DL slots.

Where would you try to draft Strasburg?
Would you be willing to sacrifice one of your DL slots all season for him?

Wait too late and someone may snag him before you; too early and he loses much of his keeper value for future years. (and obv hes unlikely to pitch at all this season, so all his value is pretty much tied up in being able to keep him in a later round)
So whats the optimal round to target him?

[lane_anasazi2]

Need to know league settings. Do they favor hitters or pitchers? If it's like most leagues it'll favor hitters. I wouldn't take him with any kind of early round pick, say anything sub 8. He's going to have to produce Round Taken minus 3 value next year, right? Like you said, take him too early and he loses his value. Consider him in the middle rounds but if someone pulls the trigger before you think it's a good deal, don't sweat it. There are plenty of good pitchers out there. (Far less risky ones, too!)

[cs3]

Need to know league settings. Do they favor hitters or pitchers?

Its 6x6 H2H league, with 24 man rosters. 10 starting batter positions. 3SP, 2RP, 2P. I plan on drafting 13 hitters, 11 pitchers - 8SP and 3 RP then adjusting the number of SP/RP as needed.
Pitching cats are W, SV, K, ERA,WHIP, QS

He's going to have to produce Round Taken minus 3 value next year, right?

No, the first year that a player is kept, you get to keep him where he was drafted. So if i take him in say the 10th, I keep in the 10th in 2012, then in rd 7 in 2013 etc

[lane_anasazi2]

Well, counting W and QS does favor starters. And being able to keep him at the same round the next year gives him more value. I'd say if you have a really good feeling about him you might take him as early as, oh, Round 6? Still, there are still some pretty great players on the board in that round, I just can't see myself drafting someone who's going to produce (most likely) ZERO value this year.

[MaudDib]

No way I touch him before round 12. Even then I probably wouldn't take him. Love the guy but TJ surgery is not an easy recovery. Usually takes a guy a full year after he returns to come back to full throttle. The other thing to think about is what the Nats will do with him. I think he starts off in the minors again and we might see him a few months later. This of course depends on when he is ready to return. So taking him in round 10 would cost you a round 7 pick in 2013 for a guy with little experience at that point.

Personally I would let someone else worry about SS. There are way too many other SP with plenty of talent for me to go after.