Im having lots of trouble deciding how to plan my draft. My first 3 picks are #3, 18, and 23 in the first year of a 6 player keeper league (keepers cost a draft pick of the round drafted, cost increases every year kept) where only one first round player is allowed to be kept per team. So not only do i need to try to draft the best talent available with my early picks, but i need to think about how that first round player will be performing in the next couple years. One thing that comes to mind is do i take the the guy with the highest projected value for this year even if he is only the 2nd-4th best at his position, or go for the guy who may have a slightly lower overall value, but is top 2 at his position for the foreseeable future?
i see 3 basic routes my draft can take to give me a solid core of proven hitters. which of these potential drafts would give me the strongest team this year, and the strongest core of potential keepers:
A) #3 Cabrera/Votto + #18 Hamilton/Kemp/Pitching ace + #23 Pedroia/Kinsler/Zimmerman/Youklis ....top tier 1B............2nd tier OF or 1st tier Pitching..........top tier MI or 2nd tier 3b
B) #3 Tulowitzki + #18 Teix/Fielder/Howard + #23 Zimmerman/Youklis/Holliday/Choo ....top tier SS.......2nd tier (still elite)1B............2nd tier 3B or 2nd tier OF
C) #3 Longoria + #18 Teix/Fielder/Howard + #23 Holliday/Choo/Kemp/Reyes/Pedroia ..top tier 3B............2nd tier 1B.................2nd tier OF or 2nd tier MI
or would you go a different route altogether? feel free to be specific with your targets i am assuming Pujols and Hanley will be taken 1/2 as the owners with the first 2 picks have already said leave a link and i will help you with your question
With pick #3 I would be happy with 1. Cabrera 2. Tulo 3. Votto...choice B looks fine, but all your choices are o.k. with me....with 1 thing I would different (I am in my 9th year of a keeper league-salary cap- where we keep 4, no limits though as far as draft rounds or anything, my league is just staright keep 4)
I notice in your scenario A that you might target an elite pitcher with your 2nd pick. I have been burned by every effort to keep and maintain my SPs through the years more than any position. Conversely, it's also the best position to be totally surprised by more players.
I kept Peavy through his great years, but he's the only one who maintained value for any length of time. Pitchers who I kept and then got burned by are too long to list (Prior, Wood, Vazquez, Dice K, even Jurrjens - who may yet redeem himself- Lackey, Strasburg, etc.) I was always paying high prices after most of these guys best seasons...not that they were bad players, just not worth what I paid for them. Also, every year I draft guys late (recently guys like Fausto Carmona, Jaimie Garcia, Tim Hudson) who are just as good but obviously don't cost me as much.
So in a league like yours, where A) the chance that an elite SP will stay elite over several solid years is pretty slim, in my experience and B) to keep any shuch pitcher would cost whatever round they were selected, and considering how fast SPs rise and fall between seasons, and lastly, C) If my league was like yours I would be looking at keeping Jaimie Garcia with my 21st round pick, Tim Hudson with my 16th round pick....I would avoid taking a SP in the top 2 or 3 rounds (if Halladay somehow falls to the 3rd round then I wouldn't have a problem with you taking him there)
Good point about the pitchers. I was actually only considering Halladay in scenario A, but i expect him to be drafted very early 2nd round anyway. What round would you be comfortable drafting Strasburg in this year to stash on the DL as a keeper for next season? Too early and he loses a lot of his keeper value, but too late and he may get snatched up.
Im really leaning towards taking Tulo at #3 then going 1B at # 18. It just seems like the gap between him and the next few SS's is huge compared to the difference in value between Mcab/Votto and the next 4-5 1B.
I have ran the same type of league for past 4 years, What i have learned is you get best value in later rounds. Heres the picks i had to decide on 4 keepers J.Upton 10th,DStubbs 17th,Cargo 22nd,MStanton & Latos 24th. I kept all but Latos and now I am set up for this years draft. I will alawys draft best avaliable and value picks early on then rounds 20+ I aim for young studs that can be superstars, I kept Cargo last year because of the value hed provide if he played like he was projected. Everyone laughed at me, now im set up for years since i have him as a 22 and we only lose 1 rd every year. Same thing with Stubbs this year everyone laughing at me, but if he goes 20/40 i think thats worth a 17. If hes a bust so what i lost a 17 and i will still get someone like Lincecum with my 1st rd so whats the point in keeping an overpriced 1st rounder
I think you are overthinking this. Pick the best avaiiable players. Stay away from picthers in the early rounds unless someone like a Halladay falls a lot lower than he should. Don't worry what value these guys might have next year. It is impossible to predict that stuff. Hitters can be whacked as well (see Sizemore, BJ Upton, Mark Reynolds, etc). You can always make a deal in the off-season so generally ignore position early and go with the best player. You want to get the best set of players you can in the draft.
Play to win this year first...then worry about the next season. Either scenario is pretty good. I personally love Votto and Longoria...3b is a little shallow this year so I may go with him first. Stay away from pitching early. You can't consistantly pick how well they will do from year to year. Good luck.
SecretAgentMan wrote:I think you are overthinking this. Pick the best avaiiable players. Stay away from picthers in the early rounds unless someone like a Halladay falls a lot lower than he should. Don't worry what value these guys might have next year. It is impossible to predict that stuff. Hitters can be whacked as well (see Sizemore, BJ Upton, Mark Reynolds, etc). You can always make a deal in the off-season so generally ignore position early and go with the best player. You want to get the best set of players you can in the draft.
So who would you take withpick #3, and who would you be targetting with #18 and #23?
Rank your players and pick who you like the best. You can not predict 18 or 23 deep what other owners are going to do. Drafts do not follow scripts and some owners will reach for guys while others may have different strategies from yours and maybe value pitching more etc. You can not predict this stuff on the micro level and it is folly to even try. Just pick the players you like the best based on what is available when your turn comes up. The early rounds should be about getting the best players. The middle rounds is where you start to look to fill in and find some bargains\values.