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Re: Michael Pineda

Postby J35J » Mon May 23, 2011 7:47 am

CBMGreatOne wrote:
J35J wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:Highest average fastball in the majors + unbelievable control of his pitches.....I don't know if I'm really looking to sell him to be honest.

Trust me, I'm with ya. But at 22 years old and Seattle not playing for anything this year... if they throw him much more than 160IP then they'd be silly... not to mention he's not going to pitch any better than he is right now...time to cash in. In redrafts, if you have a solid pitching staff then I'd obviously sell if you have needs elsewhere and can get what you want return.

cs3 wrote:What do you think hes worth in Keeper leagues, where you can keep him near the very end of the draft for several years?

Well as Aqua put it....Highest avg fastball + Plus control + Pitches in Safeco = Awesome. If you can keep that for years to come on the cheap you don't get rid of that unless you get amazing offensive players in return only because you always worry about the injury risk with young pitchers. He's got tremendous value in keepers for sure!


Not sure if they really match up from a prospect status standpoint, but how many innings did Felix throw in his rookie year? (just looked it up, was 191) If memory serves, Felix was 19/20 years old in his rookie campaign. Pineda at least has some age and physical maturity on his side relative to Felix as a rookie.


As boredguy said, 20-30IP jumps is about as much as you'd like to see from year to year on good young arms...especially if your team isn't in contention. Could he throw 180-190IP this year, sure, but that just spikes his chances for injury the next year...that would be silly, IMHO.
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Re: Michael Pineda

Postby WaCougMBS » Mon May 23, 2011 1:06 pm

J35J wrote:As boredguy said, 20-30IP jumps is about as much as you'd like to see from year to year on good young arms...especially if your team isn't in contention. Could he throw 180-190IP this year, sure, but that just spikes his chances for injury the next year...that would be silly, IMHO.


Chipping in with some agreement and a deep concern that the M's don't pull and "M's" here and find a way to mess him up - I own him in a couple of dynasties, and while I'm enjoying reaping these earlier-than-expected returns, I am hoping/praying for a shutdown between 150-160 IP this year for the reasons mentioned in the last half dozen or so posts ;-D
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Re: Michael Pineda

Postby thatguy27 » Mon May 23, 2011 1:35 pm

Considering how big he is, at 6'7", 260, is it possible he can handle a larger inning spike than is typical?

Also, given his efficiency, he might be able to handle more innings than is typical of a young pitcher due to his relatively low pitch counts. The M's have keep him to a very strict pitch count, taking him out once he gets close to the 100 pitch mark (I think he's only topped 100 pitches twice, and never topped 105), and that's usually the 6th/7th inning for him. 160 innings for him might be more like 120-130 innings for other young arms.

Lastly, any chance the M's skip his spot in the rotation from time to time to keep him available later into the season?
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Re: Michael Pineda

Postby saemick » Mon May 23, 2011 2:03 pm

thatguy27 wrote:Also, given his efficiency, he might be able to handle more innings than is typical of a young pitcher due to his relatively low pitch counts. The M's have keep him to a very strict pitch count, taking him out once he gets close to the 100 pitch mark (I think he's only topped 100 pitches twice, and never topped 105), and that's usually the 6th/7th inning for him. 160 innings for him might be more like 120-130 innings for other young arms.


that's kind of what I was thinking as well. Everyone seems concerned with "innings limit", but wouldn't it make more sense to look at total pitches thrown instead for these young arms (or players coming back from injuries)?

For an efficient pitcher, he could go 6-7IP and stay well under 100 pitches per game, whereas someone like Volquez, who is all over the place, can't get through 3IP w/o throwing 70+ pitches. Not saying to keep trotting Pineda out there for 190 innings, just saying that maybe ~170+ IP could be completely feasible
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Re: Michael Pineda

Postby J35J » Mon May 23, 2011 3:22 pm

Sure he "could" be fine with 180-190IP...nobody knows how arms hold up and if a guy can handle more than others but you all are looking at this with your fantasy glasses on hoping for the most innings he can deliver your fantasy team. You need to look at this as if you are the Seattle Mariners....what good comes from trying to get 20-30 more IP out of him in a lost year...why risk it? Why not let him dominate 165IP and go into next year with less concern for injury or let him go 190IP and still lose a ton of games this year and then go into next year with a higher concern for those extra innings causing problems in the future...I just don't see why you'd risk it in a lost year.
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Re: Michael Pineda

Postby WaCougMBS » Mon May 23, 2011 4:22 pm

J35J wrote:Sure he "could" be fine with 180-190IP...nobody knows how arms hold up and if a guy can handle more than others but you all are looking at this with your fantasy glasses on hoping for the most innings he can deliver your fantasy team. You need to look at this as if you are the Seattle Mariners....what good comes from trying to get 20-30 more IP out of him in a lost year...why risk it? Why not let him dominate 165IP and go into next year with less concern for injury or let him go 190IP and still lose a ton of games this year and then go into next year with a higher concern for those extra innings causing problems in the future...I just don't see why you'd risk it in a lost year.


I say this with tongue planted firmly in cheek, but the M's are only 1.5 games out J - come on and let a guy dream for a bit :-b

I absolutely agree though - most in this thread have their fantasy blinders on for sure when it comes to Pineda and guys like him - in all liklihood, the M's will be 10 games out by the time he gets to 150 innings or so, and at that point, what possible reason is there to push him much more than that? I also agree with the contention that his big frame doesn't preclude him to throwing more worry-free innings as a youngster, just like Tim Lincecum's small stature wasn't technically a reason to limit him any more than any other guy (there were/are concerns that do make for good reasons, but I really don't buy that his build/stature was/is one of them).

saemick wrote:
thatguy27 wrote:Also, given his efficiency, he might be able to handle more innings than is typical of a young pitcher due to his relatively low pitch counts. The M's have keep him to a very strict pitch count, taking him out once he gets close to the 100 pitch mark (I think he's only topped 100 pitches twice, and never topped 105), and that's usually the 6th/7th inning for him. 160 innings for him might be more like 120-130 innings for other young arms.


that's kind of what I was thinking as well. Everyone seems concerned with "innings limit", but wouldn't it make more sense to look at total pitches thrown instead for these young arms (or players coming back from injuries)?

For an efficient pitcher, he could go 6-7IP and stay well under 100 pitches per game, whereas someone like Volquez, who is all over the place, can't get through 3IP w/o throwing 70+ pitches. Not saying to keep trotting Pineda out there for 190 innings, just saying that maybe ~170+ IP could be completely feasible


For the record, he's also not going "well under 100 pitches" in any start really. With the exception of his 85-pitch debut (6.0 IP), he has gone between 94-103 pitches with an average of just under 6.2 IP per start. Can he economically make it into the 7th in almost every start? Yes, but I'd hardly say he's going to take any less than about 100 pitches to get there, especially with a K/9 of 9.41(even with his good walk rate)...
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Re: Michael Pineda

Postby J35J » Mon May 23, 2011 6:21 pm

WaCougMBS wrote:
J35J wrote:Sure he "could" be fine with 180-190IP...nobody knows how arms hold up and if a guy can handle more than others but you all are looking at this with your fantasy glasses on hoping for the most innings he can deliver your fantasy team. You need to look at this as if you are the Seattle Mariners....what good comes from trying to get 20-30 more IP out of him in a lost year...why risk it? Why not let him dominate 165IP and go into next year with less concern for injury or let him go 190IP and still lose a ton of games this year and then go into next year with a higher concern for those extra innings causing problems in the future...I just don't see why you'd risk it in a lost year.


I say this with tongue planted firmly in cheek, but the M's are only 1.5 games out J - come on and let a guy dream for a bit :-b


LOL, I didn't even know they were that close...I was just assuming it was the Mariners being the Mariners. :-b Like you, I'm assuming they fall off a decent amount as the season goes on, we'll see.
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Re: Michael Pineda

Postby kab21 » Mon May 23, 2011 7:39 pm

thatguy27 wrote:Considering how big he is, at 6'7", 260, is it possible he can handle a larger inning spike than is typical?


He's been considered an injury risk previous to this season and that is a bigger factor than his size. If I were the manager I would be very cautious with Pineda this season.
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Re: Michael Pineda

Postby West » Mon May 23, 2011 8:12 pm

I like Pineda but have to side with Ender's perspective. As good as his stuff is, he's eventually going to run up against some solid AL offenses and once AL hitters have had a couple of go arounds at him I'm expecting him to tail off as rookie pitchers are prone to do. And as others said, he'll probably get shut down at the end. Look at Mat Latos the last month of last season. It's a real killer for H2H. In roto, and obviously in keepers/dynastys, Pineda hold more value.

For those wondering what kind of value people are getting, I turned this deal 10 days ago, right before Beachy got injured:

Sold:
SP B. Beachy
SP M. Pineda
C M. Wieters

Got:
SP Y. Gallardo
SP J. Zimmermann
C M Montero

I'm happy with how the deal has turned out so far. As I said, I would recommend selling high if you own Pineda in a H2H.
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Re: Michael Pineda

Postby wrveres » Tue May 24, 2011 6:32 pm

J35J wrote:LOL, I didn't even know they were that close...I was just assuming it was the Mariners being the Mariners. :-b Like you, I'm assuming they fall off a decent amount as the season goes on, we'll see.

if they can keep Bedard healthy, they have pretty insane 1,2,3. Felix, Pineda, Bedard. Vargas and Fister have been okay over the last month or so too.
If the Mariners could just acquire a bat to go with Ichiro and Smoak, they are in the fight for 2011
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