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Best Values 1st Round

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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby cs3 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:06 pm

Scooter1027 wrote:Braun suffered an elbow injury last year that really appeared to sap his power. Prior to that injury, he had been raking and had been vintage Braun. After it, he went on a pretty lengthy stretch of mediocrity while playing through the injury. I think he's still a 30+ HR guy...I don't think we're going to see a .300+ ISO again like his rookie year, but he should finish .230+ again in my opinion. I have him down for .310/105 R/32 HR/110 RBI/16 SB.


he had been in a steady power decline long before any injury concerns arose tho.
i had this discussion recently in another thread and this is what was said:
when somoen asked me:
So you don't buy into the stories this spring about Braun having a power resurgence, due to a different workout regimen?

i replied
cs3 wrote:no i dont.
i DO expect him to hit more HR than last yr, but not more than 30, and i also dont think he will ever hit 20sb again.

his ISO (power) has dropped every single year since his rookie season (.310 .268 .231 .197) and his K% has also dropped.
while a decreasing K% looks nice, in conjunction with his ISO trend its a sign that hes becoming a different kind of hitter.
more of a contact/gap hitter than a pure power guy like he was his first 2 years.
hes trending to be more like hunter pence than matt holliday
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Fenris-77 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:11 pm

abrage22 wrote:So I've got the 9th pick tonight, 12 teams H2H. Assume Cano, Braun and Crawford are still available. Which one should I take? I really wanted Braun, but after reading this whole thread, i'm almost leaning toward Crawford... The problem for me with taking Braun, is that I want Fielder in the 2nd, and i'd rather not have the both of them. So I'm thinking Crawford/Fielder.

I have them ranked Braun, Crawford, Cano. I have no problem with drafting Braun and Fielder either.

kab - I really don't know why guys get so panicked about 1B. If you miss out on the top guys you can still target Butler, Pena, Lind or even Berkman depending on team needs. You don't need to reach for Morneau or Morales. As far as Dunn goes I think he should be going pretty high this year. I think he has a great chance to lead the league in HR this year, and in a power-light draft environment that's a tempting carrot in the third round.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Inukchuk » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:19 pm

Fenris-77 wrote:kab - I really don't know why guys get so panicked about 1B. If you miss out on the top guys you can still target Butler, Pena, Lind or even Berkman depending on team needs.


I would not be happy to see any of those guys in my starting 1B slot.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Scooter1027 » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:18 am

cs3 wrote:he had been in a steady power decline long before any injury concerns arose tho.


While there has been an ISO decline, I think you're oversimplifying it. His .310 rookie year ISO is an outlier, it's not likely to happen again, it likely never was. He's not likely to be the 40 HR guy some (including myself) were hoping for. Likewise, last year was a bit of an outlier due to the injury. His ISO power in his two full healthy seasons were .268 and .231. When healthy last year, he was hitting very similarly (.359/.443/.594 prior to the injury, .235/.269/.400 for a 70 game stretch after the injury, and then .364/.440/.583 from August on once healthier again).

I'll give you that his approach has changed somewhat...there's less swing and miss in his game now, he's a more well-rounded hitter. He popped a career high 45 doubles last year...full strength, I'm guessing a least a few of those are homers. I would be surprised by fewer than 30 HR this year. Even if you project his ISO to around .230 (his 2009 level, and around the level he hit while healthy last year), he'll be good for 30+ homers.

As for the steals, I project 16, but 20 would not be impossible. He stole 14 under the Ken Macha "death to the running game" regime last year, and new manager Runnin' Ron Roenicke is the exact opposite, for better or for worse. 20 would in no way shock me.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby cs3 » Mon Mar 21, 2011 3:46 am

Fenris-77 wrote:I really don't know why guys get so panicked about 1B. If you miss out on the top guys you can still target Butler, Pena, Lind or even Berkman depending on team needs. You don't need to reach for Morneau or Morales. As far as Dunn goes I think he should be going pretty high this year. I think he has a great chance to lead the league in HR this year, and in a power-light draft environment that's a tempting carrot in the third round.


In one draft i was extremely happy to get Dunn with my 2nd pick (which was basically the 5th round, 3 keepers per team) when all the other big 1b were kept.

for a team in an OBP league that im drafting this week, if i miss out on MCab at #3, then i will take Hanley first and happily spend my 3rd round pick (#23 overall) on Dunn assuming prince/teix are gone.
but i would be really worried about having butler, pena, or lind as my #1 1B.
thats really scary unless the rest of your infield is like Uggla, Tulo, Arod.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Fenris-77 » Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:52 pm

Inukchuk wrote:
Fenris-77 wrote:kab - I really don't know why guys get so panicked about 1B. If you miss out on the top guys you can still target Butler, Pena, Lind or even Berkman depending on team needs.


I would not be happy to see any of those guys in my starting 1B slot.

Maybe not, but it would mean that you have some killer guys in other positions. I think we'd need to be talking specifics here in order to decide if it's a good or bad thing. In the slow Cafe mock that's going on right now I have Butler starting at 1B because I missed out on all the elite guys due to some serious runs on CIs. However, I got Braun, Kemp, Kinsler, McCutcheon, and Reynolds in the first 5 rounds, and Butler fits as a handcuff to Reynolds Avg issues. With that team, I really don't mind drafting a 1B in the Butler tier since I have power from other positions to make up for it. If that weren't the case then yeah, Butler as my starting 1B would suck.
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