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Best Values 1st Round

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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby J.C.Fighter » Fri Mar 18, 2011 6:19 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:
J.C.Fighter wrote:One leg injury and Crawford becomes Nick Markakis..no thanks..


That's just fantastically enlightening commentary. Never mind that he would have been the 15th overall hitter in fantasy last year if he hadn't stolen a base. This is exactly the brand of out of hand dismissal that represents a lack of engagement.

If this is your strongest argument, you should go back to the drawing board.


Those rankings are usually off base. Stop lying to yourself you know and I know that most of his value is tied to his steals. If he hurts his wheels than what do we have ? a 90 R 15 hr 85 RBI .300 hitter...? don't get me wrong its valuable but no way in hell is that kind of production going to will you to a championship..
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Grounded Polo » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:12 pm

J.C.Fighter wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:
J.C.Fighter wrote:One leg injury and Crawford becomes Nick Markakis..no thanks..


That's just fantastically enlightening commentary. Never mind that he would have been the 15th overall hitter in fantasy last year if he hadn't stolen a base. This is exactly the brand of out of hand dismissal that represents a lack of engagement.

If this is your strongest argument, you should go back to the drawing board.


Those rankings are usually off base. Stop lying to yourself you know and I know that most of his value is tied to his steals. If he hurts his wheels than what do we have ? a 90 R 15 hr 85 RBI .300 hitter...? don't get me wrong its valuable but no way in hell is that kind of production going to will you to a championship..


He was the 17th best hitter per baseball monster in 2011 if you take out steals, better than expected 1st rounders like Longoria and Wright. You can say one inside pitch hits a power hitter's hand and then he becomes useless for 18 months.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:24 pm

I like that argument... "if he somehow loses all of his value despite no reason for it happening, what will his value be?" What if Albert Pujols lost all his HR or Roy Halladay lost all his Ks? Everybody is one injury away from being useless. He's been extremely durable so I don't think he's at an increased risk. All these crappy arguments against Crawford are a testament to how good a pick he is, to be honest. There's no good reason to not take him in the top 6.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Fenris-77 » Fri Mar 18, 2011 8:31 pm

Aside from thinking that this season a guy like Longoria will have a better season (which I do, or at least coin flip value)? I don't think Crawford's any kind of lock to out-produce Wright either for that matter, although again, it's pretty much a coin flip IMO. And, since that's how I have them projected and ranked, I'll take the guys with more power when power is at a premium in a way that stolen bases simply aren't. I'm not saying you can't invest a high pick in Crawford (since he's obviously very good) I'm just saying that I won't be drafting him instead of some of the heavier hitters that are also ranked in the first round.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri Mar 18, 2011 8:42 pm

Fenris-77 wrote:Aside from thinking that this season a guy like Longoria will have a better season (which I do, or at least coin flip value)? I don't think Crawford's any kind of lock to out-produce Wright either for that matter, although again, it's pretty much a coin flip IMO. And, since that's how I have them projected and ranked, I'll take the guys with more power when power is at a premium in a way that stolen bases simply aren't. I'm not saying you can't invest a high pick in Crawford (since he's obviously very good) I'm just saying that I won't be drafting him instead of some of the heavier hitters that are also ranked in the first round.


My main leagues are auctions so it's something of an academic point that I'd argue where exactly Crawford slots. Suffice it to say, I'll probably be willing to pay a few dollars more than his average auction value. I wonder, still, where exactly he should slot given your thoughts on power vs speed.

As much as I have been an advocate of devaluing position scarcity, I think both of the SSs, along with Pujols and Cabrera are pretty surefire bets to go ahead of Crawford. For me, he becomes a consideration at #5, along with Votto, Longoria, Braun, Wright (if you're feeling especially frisky, perhaps Adrian).

I guess at this point, the only one I'm strongly considering over Crawford is Votto, whereas I'm leaning towards Crawford over Braun and the other 2 first basemen.

For those who like Braun over Crawford, is there any particular reason to expect a rebound season, particularly with respect to HR power? His advanced metrics seem to suggest that the power decline is a legitimate result of his becoming more of a contact hitter. I guess I just don't see Braun as being a viable consideration over Crawford if I only project a 10 HR difference between the two. In and of itself, it's a big margin, but given Crawford's incredible SB/AVG/Rs potential, I think the 10 HR gap is mitigated pretty easily.

I guess all I'm saying is that if I thought it was reasonable to project 35 HRs for Braun, I'd be apt to rethink him in particular over Crawford, but I've yet to hear a compelling argument for why I should expect a rebound.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Fenris-77 » Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:49 pm

Well, if you have Braun projected at 28 HRs (or whatevere) then obviously you wouldn't want him over Crawford. I think Braun's HR/FB% was an outlier last year, and even then he was still a top 10 hitter for 5x5 roto. When he quite obviously has 30+ HR power, I don't see any reason for his power to fall off the map, and a reasonable chance that we see a rebound to 30 HRs (or maybe more if we're lucky).

I'd take Votto over Braun too (and Crawford). Really, from 5 or 6 through the next full round of picks it's a choose your own adventure depending on how you want to project guys. I'd agree that Pujols, Hanley, Miggy and Votto are a clearcut step above, and in my own personal rankings I have Longoria right up there as well (for a lot of the same reasons as Braun actually, but that's a whole different topic). In that tier of guys after the big 4 (or 5) I think that individual reads on category and positional scarcity play a pretty big role in ranking. Based on where I have other guys ranked farther down the board, I'd rather have to make up a speed deficit than a power deficit, but that's based on my rankings and thoughts on the top 200 guys, not just the top 10. If you have guys projected and ranked differently then we will obvioiusly disagree about draft strategy.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Scooter1027 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:17 am

Braun suffered an elbow injury last year that really appeared to sap his power. Prior to that injury, he had been raking and had been vintage Braun. After it, he went on a pretty lengthy stretch of mediocrity while playing through the injury. I think he's still a 30+ HR guy...I don't think we're going to see a .300+ ISO again like his rookie year, but he should finish .230+ again in my opinion. I have him down for .310/105 R/32 HR/110 RBI/16 SB.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby abrage22 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 3:24 pm

So I've got the 9th pick tonight, 12 teams H2H. Assume Cano, Braun and Crawford are still available. Which one should I take? I really wanted Braun, but after reading this whole thread, i'm almost leaning toward Crawford... The problem for me with taking Braun, is that I want Fielder in the 2nd, and i'd rather not have the both of them. So i'm thinking Crawford/Fielder.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby CubsFan7724 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 4:19 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
kab21 wrote:Yeah I don't understand this myth that 1B is deep. there might be a lot of great 1Bman but if you want you are going to have to use a 1st or 2nd rd pick to get one.

I'm completely on board with this. If you don't get Pujols, MCab, Votto, A-Gon, Tex, Howard or Fielder in the first two rounds I think you are at a disadvantage. I'm OK with Morneau, Dunn and Morales too but I would hate to be looking to fill my 1B spot after they are gone.

If you're in an OBP league Dunn slides in nicely but otherwise, yeah. 1B is very topheavy and I think options past the top ones are very iffy.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby kab21 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 8:21 pm

abrage22 wrote:So I've got the 9th pick tonight, 12 teams H2H. Assume Cano, Braun and Crawford are still available. Which one should I take? I really wanted Braun, but after reading this whole thread, i'm almost leaning toward Crawford... The problem for me with taking Braun, is that I want Fielder in the 2nd, and i'd rather not have the both of them. So i'm thinking Crawford/Fielder.
the problem is that you can't assume that Fielder will be there for you at pick #21. And there's really nothing wrong with any of the 3 imo.

CubsFan7724 wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:I'm completely on board with this. If you don't get Pujols, MCab, Votto, A-Gon, Tex, Howard or Fielder in the first two rounds I think you are at a disadvantage. I'm OK with Morneau, Dunn and Morales too but I would hate to be looking to fill my 1B spot after they are gone.

If you're in an OBP league Dunn slides in nicely but otherwise, yeah. 1B is very topheavy and I think options past the top ones are very iffy.


In my OBP league Dunn went at the end of the 2nd rd (all 8 1Bman in the first 22 picks) so you're still going to have to pay with a high draft pick if you want one.

And in the slow cafe mock Dunn went in the top 30 and owners panicked and picked Morneau and Morales too early because they got left out at the 1B position.
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