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Best Values 1st Round

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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:58 pm

Let's all argue semantics..... oy. Point was that late power is just as cheap and available as late steals. Point remains, regardless of Braun's HR total.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby AquaMan2342 » Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:43 am

kab21 wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:Crawford should hit enough homers to make him worth the choice. Only 17 players scored 100 runs or more last year. He will score well over 100 runs this year. Upon further review, Crawford should be considered as early as 4 and should be gone by 6, taken over Braun and Gonzalez.


The biggest reasons that I can see taking Crawford that early is that he has 15+ HR power and he still has a very good shot at 200 R/RBI's (due to the Boston lineup). Before last season he was averaging about 160 R/RBI's which put him at 40-50 R/RBI disadvantage to the other 1B/OF'ers going in the 1st rd.


Definitely. Crawford in Boston will be better than Crawford in Tampa Bay.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Fenris-77 » Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:05 am

Ender wrote:The late speed options are almost universally crappy so stop trying to say you can get SB late. You get SB late by killing yourself in 3 or 4 other categories.

You make it sound like the late options for power don't have warts (cause they do). Sure, those late speed guys do have some issues (not all of them) but a guy like Pierre, for example, or Tabata, should get you decent average, decent runs, great SBs, and maybe (with Tabata anyway) at least a handfull of HRs. If you drafted big hitters early you can afford to take a hit on HRs and RBIs with you last OF slot. It's just a different draft strategy and I don't think you can just isloate the players without taking into account the teams that would be drafting them. Drafting Rajai Davis is a lot different if I have Fielder, A-Gon and Dunn on board early as opposed to Crawford, Cargo and Choo. That's maybe an extreme example, but I'm sure you see what I'm getting at.

If you're talking really late, with guys like Bourjos or Scotty Pods then yeah, they kill some cats. But if you're waiting that long to fill out SBs then you have bigger issues. All to say that I'm talking about the better late guys, and not those really late schmohawks.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Matthias » Fri Mar 18, 2011 8:11 am

AquaMan2342 wrote:
kab21 wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:Crawford should hit enough homers to make him worth the choice. Only 17 players scored 100 runs or more last year. He will score well over 100 runs this year. Upon further review, Crawford should be considered as early as 4 and should be gone by 6, taken over Braun and Gonzalez.

The biggest reasons that I can see taking Crawford that early is that he has 15+ HR power and he still has a very good shot at 200 R/RBI's (due to the Boston lineup). Before last season he was averaging about 160 R/RBI's which put him at 40-50 R/RBI disadvantage to the other 1B/OF'ers going in the 1st rd.

Definitely. Crawford in Boston will be better than Crawford in Tampa Bay.

How come not much discussion about Gonzo in Boston being better than Gonzo in San Diego?

Stuff like this?
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Ender » Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:09 am

Fenris-77 wrote:
Ender wrote:The late speed options are almost universally crappy so stop trying to say you can get SB late. You get SB late by killing yourself in 3 or 4 other categories.

You make it sound like the late options for power don't have warts (cause they do). Sure, those late speed guys do have some issues (not all of them) but a guy like Pierre, for example, or Tabata, should get you decent average, decent runs, great SBs, and maybe (with Tabata anyway) at least a handfull of HRs. If you drafted big hitters early you can afford to take a hit on HRs and RBIs with you last OF slot. It's just a different draft strategy and I don't think you can just isloate the players without taking into account the teams that would be drafting them. Drafting Rajai Davis is a lot different if I have Fielder, A-Gon and Dunn on board early as opposed to Crawford, Cargo and Choo. That's maybe an extreme example, but I'm sure you see what I'm getting at.

If you're talking really late, with guys like Bourjos or Scotty Pods then yeah, they kill some cats. But if you're waiting that long to fill out SBs then you have bigger issues. All to say that I'm talking about the better late guys, and not those really late schmohawks.


Sure but to say you can ignore SB early or they aren't worth drafting early because you can easily get SB late is just off-base. You can get any stat late, you can pick up high AVG guys that bring nothing else, you can draft one dimensional SB guys, you can draft low AVG power guys late. Any stat you are picking up late comes with worts and that is why they are around late in the draft. I just get the idea that people who talk like this don't understand why guys like Pierre and Bourn are around pretty late, because their non SB stats kill most of their value and actually hurt your team.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby Fenris-77 » Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:18 am

Ender wrote:Sure but to say you can ignore SB early or they aren't worth drafting early because you can easily get SB late is just off-base. You can get any stat late, you can pick up high AVG guys that bring nothing else, you can draft one dimensional SB guys, you can draft low AVG power guys late. Any stat you are picking up late comes with worts and that is why they are around late in the draft. I just get the idea that people who talk like this don't understand why guys like Pierre and Bourn are around pretty late, because their non SB stats kill most of their value and actually hurt your team.

Well, to be fair, I wasn't actually saying people should 'ignore' SB early either. I just tend to knock guys who derive a whole lot of their value from SBs down a little. I'd rather draft Kemp's 30-20 than Crawford's 18-45 (just as an example). I agree that some people don't have a firm handle on where they need to be in order for a Pierre or Bourne to not hurt in cartain cats though. You need to have the RBIs and HRs in place at a certain level, but since that's my general strategy this year I'm OK with it.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby AquaMan2342 » Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:36 am

Matthias wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:
kab21 wrote:The biggest reasons that I can see taking Crawford that early is that he has 15+ HR power and he still has a very good shot at 200 R/RBI's (due to the Boston lineup). Before last season he was averaging about 160 R/RBI's which put him at 40-50 R/RBI disadvantage to the other 1B/OF'ers going in the 1st rd.

Definitely. Crawford in Boston will be better than Crawford in Tampa Bay.

How come not much discussion about Gonzo in Boston being better than Gonzo in San Diego?

Stuff like this?


I've always seen it as an assumption that moving from the most pitcher friendly park in baseball to one of the better hitters parks would inflate Gonzalez's numbers. Crawford doesn't get that same benefit because Tampa had a good offense and he's not a power hitter.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:46 pm

Fenris-77 wrote:
Ender wrote:Sure but to say you can ignore SB early or they aren't worth drafting early because you can easily get SB late is just off-base. You can get any stat late, you can pick up high AVG guys that bring nothing else, you can draft one dimensional SB guys, you can draft low AVG power guys late. Any stat you are picking up late comes with worts and that is why they are around late in the draft. I just get the idea that people who talk like this don't understand why guys like Pierre and Bourn are around pretty late, because their non SB stats kill most of their value and actually hurt your team.

Well, to be fair, I wasn't actually saying people should 'ignore' SB early either. I just tend to knock guys who derive a whole lot of their value from SBs down a little. I'd rather draft Kemp's 30-20 than Crawford's 18-45 (just as an example). I agree that some people don't have a firm handle on where they need to be in order for a Pierre or Bourne to not hurt in cartain cats though. You need to have the RBIs and HRs in place at a certain level, but since that's my general strategy this year I'm OK with it.


I know you're not saying you'd rather have Matt Kemp than Carl Crawford in a vacuum... That would be disgusting. :-D

I completely understand your point and I have been a bigtime proponent of that philosophy. I just think people have a tendency to undersell Carl Crawford's overall contribution to a fantasy team by unfairly equivocating (to some degree or another) his production to guys like Rajai Davis and Juan Pierre. I don't think you're guilty of that necessarily, I'm just saying that in the past I've fallen into that very trap. Matt Kemp has the power edge over Crawford to be sure, but Crawford has him by a mile in 3 out of the remaining 4 categories and I'm not even sure RBIs are going to be in Kemp's favor this year.

I guess all I'm saying is that Carl Crawford is a special case this year. He's a guy who fantasy owners should have a particular interest in reevaluating their feelings about because I see some huge upside potential to go along with his baseline, virtually guaranteed value. For those worrying about a speed regression, I could easily see a scenario where he only steals 25 bags yet is a top 5 overall player at the end of the year. Would 125/20/95/25/.315 shock anybody? It may be a little optimistic, but it wouldn't shock me at all. That would be Robinson Cano from last year plus 13 HR/SBs.

I know the Rays also had a good offense, but I hope Rays fans will forgive me for saying that it could still very easily pale in comparison to what Boston has the potential to do this year. I guess at the risk of getting long-winded, I'd like to point out that some of the Crawford haters in this thread are so because of a particular dogmatic idea that they absolutely want to build their drafts around power in the very early rounds and would never consider a player in round 1 that had a skill set similar to Crawford's. Like I said, I tend to implement that approach 90% of the time, but if there would ever be an exception, Carl Crawford in 2011 is a case I'd pinpoint to be one.
Last edited by CBMGreatOne on Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby J.C.Fighter » Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:06 pm

One leg injury and Crawford becomes Nick Markakis..no thanks..

one other thing, i don't believe elsbury is going to stick at lead off all season. I could see Pedroia move to the 1 hole and crawford moved down to the 2 hole...where he belongs!
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Re: Best Values 1st Round

Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:26 pm

J.C.Fighter wrote:One leg injury and Crawford becomes Nick Markakis..no thanks..


That's just fantastically enlightening commentary. Never mind that he would have been the 15th overall hitter in fantasy last year if he hadn't stolen a base. This is exactly the brand of out of hand dismissal that represents a lack of engagement.

If this is your strongest argument, you should go back to the drawing board.
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