kab21 wrote:Yeah I don't understand this myth that 1B is deep. there might be a lot of great 1Bman but if you want you are going to have to use a 1st or 2nd rd pick to get one.
I'm completely on board with this. If you don't get Pujols, MCab, Votto, A-Gon, Tex, Howard or Fielder in the first two rounds I think you are at a disadvantage. I'm OK with Morneau, Dunn and Morales too but I would hate to be looking to fill my 1B spot after they are gone.
Yep, I think you must get at least 30 homers from first base to be competitive. There are a couple of decent young sleeper types like Ike Davis, Mitch Moreland, Brandon Belt, etc. but I don't see anyone in the 8-13 round range, guys who played well last year and could easily explode to a top 3 round value in 2012. 1B is pretty static, most of the top guys were already top guys, no new faces.
To me, looking at "value" in the 1st round is a little disingenuous... No round's value is impacted more by the individual decisions within your league than this.
Just looking at the ranking above, I would love to have a choice of Votto, Braun, or Crawford in any of those spots. I'm not saying any of the other guys (or pick numbers) would upset me, but I'm not going to start going way off-board unless there's some particular league-settings which dictate that. (i.e, I'm playing in an uber-shallow league without utility spots, so positional scarcity is a much larger factor than it would otherwise be, and I'm putting Tulo ahead of any of the 1B... something I would never do in a deeper league).
Not only this, but I'm looking at filling certain positions before certain cut-offs... so, in a 10-team league I don't have a problem grabbing a MI/OF in the first round because I'm going to get a CI guy on the wrap-around that I'm comfortable with (Prince, ARod, etc). If I've got the #3 pick in a deep 14-team league (UT, CI, MI, 5xOF), where all those comfortable CI guys are going to be gone by my second pick, I can't take the risk of not having one of them with my first pick, so I'm going to be much more tempted to take MCab/Votto than Hanley/Tulo.
So many factors when you're trying to assign "value". If you were trying to take every league setting into account then every answer would be justifiable. If you were trying to take no league settings into account and look at it in a vacuum you'd be completely dismissing positional scarcity in favor of production numbers alone.
kab21 wrote:Yeah I don't understand this myth that 1B is deep. there might be a lot of great 1Bman but if you want you are going to have to use a 1st or 2nd rd pick to get one.
I'm completely on board with this. If you don't get Pujols, MCab, Votto, A-Gon, Tex, Howard or Fielder in the first two rounds I think you are at a disadvantage. I'm OK with Morneau, Dunn and Morales too but I would hate to be looking to fill my 1B spot after they are gone.
I totally agree with you guys on 1B. However, suppose you have the 2nd pick in a 12 team, then you also have 23rd, 26th 47th & 50th. So if you setup your draft and pick hanley 2nd, by the 23rd pick the big 7 1B are probably gone. That leaves Youkilis, Morneau, Dunn and Morales to try and team with hanley. So do you try to go miggy-reyes instead?
kab21 wrote:Yeah I don't understand this myth that 1B is deep. there might be a lot of great 1Bman but if you want you are going to have to use a 1st or 2nd rd pick to get one.
I'm completely on board with this. If you don't get Pujols, MCab, Votto, A-Gon, Tex, Howard or Fielder in the first two rounds I think you are at a disadvantage. I'm OK with Morneau, Dunn and Morales too but I would hate to be looking to fill my 1B spot after they are gone.
I totally agree with you guys on 1B. However, suppose you have the 2nd pick in a 12 team, then you also have 23rd, 26th 47th & 50th. So if you setup your draft and pick hanley 2nd, by the 23rd pick the big 7 1B are probably gone. That leaves Youkilis, Morneau, Dunn and Morales to try and team with hanley. So do you try to go miggy-reyes instead?
I take Hanley and the best available hitter in the 2nd and 3rd if the top 7 1B are off the board. Hanley is too good to pass up. You risk getting caught with a lesser 1B but it is worth it IMO.
kab21 wrote:Yeah I don't understand this myth that 1B is deep. there might be a lot of great 1Bman but if you want you are going to have to use a 1st or 2nd rd pick to get one.
I'm completely on board with this. If you don't get Pujols, MCab, Votto, A-Gon, Tex, Howard or Fielder in the first two rounds I think you are at a disadvantage. I'm OK with Morneau, Dunn and Morales too but I would hate to be looking to fill my 1B spot after they are gone.
I totally agree with you guys on 1B. However, suppose you have the 2nd pick in a 12 team, then you also have 23rd, 26th 47th & 50th. So if you setup your draft and pick hanley 2nd, by the 23rd pick the big 7 1B are probably gone. That leaves Youkilis, Morneau, Dunn and Morales to try and team with hanley. So do you try to go miggy-reyes instead?
My point is only that 1B isn't as deep as you think since you'll have to spend a 1st or 2nd rd pick on the top 7. I also try not to get locked in too much on position X and position Y. I pick the best players even if they are 2 first basemen. And Reyes is pretty much on my DO NOT DRAFT list this year so I hate those kind of hypotheticals.
I'm not sure how you guys can say first base isn't deep? You can say that your safest picks are at the top end, but that is with any position. There are 7 elite, proven studs at 1B:
Pujols Miggy Votto Teix Fielder Gonzo Howard
All of which will NOT finish at the top 7 1B. That is a fact. Someone will have a major injury, someone will just unexplicably have an off year, and someone in the middle tier or bottom tier will have a career year. The same goes for any other position. The next tier is also solid with proven guys, but which also have a bit more risk:
Adam Dunn Justin Morneau Kendrys Morales Kevin Youk (although your prob. drafting him for 3B)
That makes 10-11 1B that will give you that 30 HR plateau that everyone wants at 1B. There is no other position, besides OF (because there are 3 starters) and SP (because there are 5 starters), that comes close to that depth. Plus you so many upside fliers and vets that can be had later:
Billy Butler (although not really late) Adam Lind Carlos Pena (although I'd never draft him) Aubrey Huff Derek Lee Justin Smoak Gaby Sanchez Mitch Moreland Freddie Freeman Brandon Belt Kila Ka'aihue Eric Hosmer (if kila disappoints or if one gets traded hurt) Ike Davis
A position isn't deep if you HAVE to draft a player by the 5th rd to get dependable production. There's this myth that you can wait. well you can but there's a massive difference between getting Fielder and even a guy like Butler (8th rd?). It's an even bigger difference if you instead have Derrek Lee.
The thing is that if your league uses ci or utility spots you can't just wait for those guys to fall to you.they'll be drafted by someone else. I agree 1b is not deep as that is normally thought of.
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0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
kab21 wrote:A position isn't deep if you HAVE to draft a player by the 5th rd to get dependable production. There's this myth that you can wait. well you can but there's a massive difference between getting Fielder and even a guy like Butler (8th rd?). It's an even bigger difference if you instead have Derrek Lee.
Ok, then that is fair to say. It all depends on each persons definition of the word "deep". I think the people that call the position deep, believe it means that there is a larger quantity of solid players compared to other positions (e.g. SS only has 2 elite power players). And those that believe the position is not deep, argue that because you have to draft the elite guys early, it is not deep.
All valid points, no one is wrong, just depends which perspective you look from.
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by Grounded Polo » Fri Mar 11, 2011 11:18 am 
