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Crazy to keep Bautista over Wright?

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Crazy to keep Bautista over Wright?

Postby Doughhead » Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:16 pm

Okay, these two are my final two keeper candidates (my others being Pujols, CarGo, and Cano).

I know keeping Bautista over Wright flies in the face of all conventional wisdom, but here are my thoughts:

1) Bautista has 3B/OF, compared to Wright with just 3B.

2) Okay, Bautista is unlikely to hit 50+ homers again, but is 40ish that out of the question?

3) Bautista will be given every opportunity to remain in the middle of Jays lineup (especially after inking that big deal). Assuming he does, the R and RBI numbers should remain very high.

4) Wright probably gives me 30 to 60 points in average and 10-15 more steals, but everything else should be pretty comparable. And Bautista has 50 homer upside.

5) Wright hit just 10 homers two years ago and therefore comes with some risk of his own.

6) The Jays get the edge in lineup strength and a better home ballpark.

7) It's almost certain Bautista's 2010 will stand as his career year, but Bautista had a sizable edge in 4 of my league's 6 roto categories last year:

BA - Wright +.023
HR - Bautista +25
RBI - Bautista +21
R - Bautista +22
OPS - Bautista +.138
SB - Wright +10
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Re: Crazy to keep Bautista over Wright?

Postby amarlls » Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:19 pm

Ya id say Bautista. He doesnt hit for high average but you got those other guys to keep that category up

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Re: Crazy to keep Bautista over Wright?

Postby footballisbetter.com » Wed Mar 09, 2011 12:15 am

I like Wright better then Bautista. ;-D
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Re: Crazy to keep Bautista over Wright?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Mar 09, 2011 12:32 am

No way I keep Bautista over Wright. Even if you buy into the power you are still trading 15 HR for 40 points of BA and 15 SB. Not to mention Wright is 2 years younger.
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Re: Crazy to keep Bautista over Wright?

Postby avsfan4ever33 » Wed Mar 09, 2011 1:11 am

I wouldn't consider Bautista over Wright, personally.
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Re: Crazy to keep Bautista over Wright?

Postby HOOTIE » Wed Mar 09, 2011 1:17 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:No way I keep Bautista over Wright. Even if you buy into the power you are still trading 15 HR for 40 points of BA and 15 SB. Not to mention Wright is 2 years younger.

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Re: Crazy to keep Bautista over Wright?

Postby fast dogs » Wed Mar 09, 2011 5:18 am

you have the best keepers in the league, theres no need to try to catch lightning in a bottle twice. you don't pass on a sure top 20 player to see if Bautista can do it like that 2 years in a row. A 3rd basemen having OF elig doesn't really mean all that much, he's so much more valueable @ 3rd. Wright's the safer, smarter much much better way for you to go. Look back at those batting averages for Bautista in past years; he's going to have to really out-homer Wright again just to make up for average and sb's just to break even. Why take on risk with those keepers
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Re: Crazy to keep Bautista over Wright?

Postby Doughhead » Wed Mar 09, 2011 12:43 pm

fast dogs wrote:you have the best keepers in the league, theres no need to try to catch lightning in a bottle twice. you don't pass on a sure top 20 player to see if Bautista can do it like that 2 years in a row. A 3rd basemen having OF elig doesn't really mean all that much, he's so much more valueable @ 3rd. Wright's the safer, smarter much much better way for you to go. Look back at those batting averages for Bautista in past years; he's going to have to really out-homer Wright again just to make up for average and sb's just to break even. Why take on risk with those keepers


I don’t know. We start 5 OFs, so it gets pretty dicey. Also, I feel like Wright carries his own risk. He hit just 10 HR two years ago, and his OBP and SB numbers are not going in the "Wright" direction (get it?). This is also an OPS league, which adds to Bautista’s value.
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Re: Crazy to keep Bautista over Wright?

Postby krunchyfrogg » Wed Mar 09, 2011 5:09 pm

I'd take Wright over Bautista.

Chalk that 10 homer year up to park intimidation. He's over it now.


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Re: Crazy to keep Bautista over Wright?

Postby RyeWhiskey » Wed Mar 09, 2011 7:04 pm

Doughhead wrote:
fast dogs wrote:you have the best keepers in the league, theres no need to try to catch lightning in a bottle twice. you don't pass on a sure top 20 player to see if Bautista can do it like that 2 years in a row. A 3rd basemen having OF elig doesn't really mean all that much, he's so much more valueable @ 3rd. Wright's the safer, smarter much much better way for you to go. Look back at those batting averages for Bautista in past years; he's going to have to really out-homer Wright again just to make up for average and sb's just to break even. Why take on risk with those keepers


I don’t know. We start 5 OFs, so it gets pretty dicey. Also, I feel like Wright carries his own risk. He hit just 10 HR two years ago, and his OBP and SB numbers are not going in the "Wright" direction (get it?). This is also an OPS league, which adds to Bautista’s value.


I hear your concern, but you simply can't justify keeping Bautista over Wright. Wright's 6-year, 162 game average is:
.305 - 27 - 107 - 103 - 22
That is money in the bank.
On the other hand, Bautista's 6-year, 162 game average is:
.244 - 25 - 74 - 77 - 5
Will he outperform these numbers in 2011, sure, but these are numbers you can pull from Aubrey Huff or any other 4th-tier OF.

3B is terribly shallow this season and you'd be crazy to give up on the second best 3B in the league for a guy who has one season of success (and even then doesn't give you AVG or SB). Why not draft Reynolds if this is your strategy? He'll surely hit more HRs than Bautista this season and he has 1B eligibility to boot.

Keep Wright. Put him right behind Pujols and Cano in your lineup and right in front of CarGo and smile knowing that you have 4 surefire studs who will not let you down.
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