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1st year playing fantasy baseball..

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1st year playing fantasy baseball..

Postby luso26 » Mon Mar 07, 2011 8:28 pm

How does my team look?
H2H 12 team

C - Joe Mauer
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Robinson Cano
3B - Adrian Beltre
SS - Mike Aviles
OF - Alex Rios
OF - Chris Young
OF - Brett Gardner
UTIL - Aaron Hill
UTIL - Angel Pagen
BN - Adam LaRoche
BN - John Buck
BN - James Loney
BN - Macro Scutaro
BN - Jhonny Peralta

SP - Tommy Hanson
SP - Fransico Liriano
RP - Johnathan Broxton
RP - Fernando Rodney
P - Brandon Morrow
P - Jonathon Sanchez
P - James Shields
P - Jason Frasor
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Re: 1st year playing fantasy baseball..

Postby Relddem » Tue Mar 08, 2011 12:30 am

luso26 wrote:How does my team look?
H2H 12 team

C - Joe Mauer
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Robinson Cano
3B - Adrian Beltre
SS - Mike Aviles
OF - Alex Rios
OF - Chris Young
OF - Brett Gardner
UTIL - Aaron Hill
UTIL - Angel Pagen
BN - Adam LaRoche
BN - John Buck
BN - James Loney
BN - Macro Scutaro
BN - Jhonny Peralta

SP - Tommy Hanson
SP - Fransico Liriano
RP - Johnathan Broxton
RP - Fernando Rodney
P - Brandon Morrow
P - Jonathon Sanchez
P - James Shields
P - Jason Frasor


Not terrible at all, there's quite a bit I like about this team, but first some ideas to consider. First, your bench can include pitchers, and in most cases (including yours) I would advise it. Check the wire to see whose available. Not that I don't like your staff, but in an H2H league you really need more than five starters. I usually go 6-8 in these formats depending on how my top end looks, though the last one or two won't be set in stone, I'll swap them in our out based on matchups week to week. I'd probably go to war any given week with seven and be ready to have the last spot be flexible in your case. In these Yahoo H2H formats with a weekly acquisition cap, it'll be important to pay attention to two things when filling that last spot:

1. Two-start pitchers
2. Matchups

Every Sunday, if you have any moves remaining, I would look to see what pitchers are slated to pitch the following day and who their two matchups for the week are. Padres pitcher with two home starts against weak the Nationals and Astros? Money. Scott Baker on the road against Seattle then at home against KC? Awesome. Avoid guys with two road AL East matchups unless one is in Tampa (only passable ballpark/offense combo in the division). NL pitchers with big ballparks facing weak offenses are always good.

You have a nice looking offense. The one criticism I'd raise (and find myself doing frequently, so don't sweat it too much) in case you do another draft: don't worry so much about 2B early. As you can tell since you have Hill, there are lots of interesting 2B deeper on the board, while all the high end guys are regression and/or injury risks (including Cano). Not so much with third base, where guys like Wright and Longo are more likely ready for positive regression and have little health risk, after the top four or five you have a ton of question marks. Beltre's already hurting and he's really only had two good years. I don't necessarily buy the contract year thing and I think his power will be fine in Arlington, but his average may regress. Keep tabs on any third baseman with a pulse on the wire. Specifically be ready to grab Mike Moustakas when he gets called up in late May. In my drafts, I'm pretty much focusing on the top four third baseman (Longo, Wright, Zimmerman, Youk, and in OBP leagues throw in Jose Bautista) and willing to reach a bit for them (I'll usually pass on Longo if I have a 3-6 pick in favor of Tulo, Miggy, Votto, or Braun in that order), but I'd gladly take Wright over CarGo if given the opportunity (same profile, BABIP reliant averages, 30ish HR power, 20-30 SB, 90-100 R/RBI, but Wright has the positional edge and draws more walks) and then if I miss on them I'll make sure and reach for either Pedro Alvarez or Pablo Sandoval a bit later on. Pablo Sandoval is something of a point-of-no-return at the position, if I don't have a 3B by the 10th round I'll make sure I get him (and I do think he's in for a huge year).

A few more specific points: You don't need to roster two catchers. I'm not crazy about Buck anyway, I would drop him for a pitcher. If you want to squeeze a few more ABs out of the position in a given week when Mauer takes a day off, drop the pitcher you're not attached to and grab someone like Chris Iannetta or Josh Thole instead. Loney and Peralta also seem superfluous and both lack upside. Same deal there, swap em for a pitcher or a hitter with more upside. Check to see if Jordan Zimmermann or Mike Minor are available on the wire. They're young breakout candidates with #2 fantasy starter type upside. I would also check for a potential control specialist to help check the WHIP risks of Morrow (who I like a lot btw) and Sanchez, Tim Stauffer perhaps. Other deeper starter sleepers I like include Homer Bailey, Derek Holland, Jon Niese, James McDonald, Jason Hammel, and Aaron Harang (flyball pitchers love Petco).

I'm not crazy about any roster with Mauer unless he falls. Catchers just don't provide enough value to justify a pick before the 5th round. They're typically limited to four categories and don't play much.

One more potential move to consider: See if Jake McGee is available. I think he has a better shot at Tampa's closer job than Frasor does at Tornonto's. In fact, I'm pretty confident McGee will get Tampa's job at some point soon unless JP Howell comes back and tears it up, in which case you can likely nab him.

The good stuff: you did a great job with SP, being patient. Hanson is a guy I buy as a profit pick, though he's not the guy I've been going with around there (I prefer Hamels, but Hanson's probably my second pick around that draft position), he's at the right spot and has the right profile for a first SP pick (solid strikeout rate, good command, good supporting offense, won't hurt you in WHIP), and I love Liriano. Morrow is a great risk/reward pick. He could be the best SP on your staff or the worst. Shields is also a great value pick. People are way too stuck on his inflated ERA, I would be surprised if he doesn't improve it by a 1.00 or more to go with a good to elite WHIP and solid strikeout total.

I love your outfield too. All four of your outfielders should provide profit and have a degree of balance, even Gardner, who may seem like a prototypical speed specialist but gets away with it by having an excellent walk rate. Alex Rios is a notoriously fast starter and slow finisher. If he's tearing it up in June, see if you can find a sucker who will buy high on him. In roto it wouldn't be such a big deal, but he has the potential to be significantly less valuable when it counts the most in H2H.
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Re: 1st year playing fantasy baseball..

Postby luso26 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 3:43 pm

Relddem thanks for the response. Really good insight, really appreciate the post.

I've taken a look at potential adds in the wire and all of the pitchers you've suggested are available, with the exception of Zimmerman.

There's also these notable pitchers available -

Brandon Webb
AJ Burnett
Frank Francisco
Edwin Jackson
Clayton Richard
Anibal Sanchez
Brandon League
Brian Fuentes
Scott Downs
Brian Duensing
Jon Garland
RA Dickey
Mike Pelfrey

Should I just look to add Niese or Homer Bailey?

Also who would you recommend dropping out of the bunch of Loney, Buck and Peralta.

Again, thanks for the insight, really appreciate all the help.
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Re: 1st year playing fantasy baseball..

Postby Relddem » Tue Mar 08, 2011 8:05 pm

luso26 wrote:Relddem thanks for the response. Really good insight, really appreciate the post.

I've taken a look at potential adds in the wire and all of the pitchers you've suggested are available, with the exception of Zimmerman.

There's also these notable pitchers available -

Brandon Webb
AJ Burnett
Frank Francisco
Edwin Jackson
Clayton Richard
Anibal Sanchez
Brandon League
Brian Fuentes
Scott Downs
Brian Duensing
Jon Garland
RA Dickey
Mike Pelfrey

Should I just look to add Niese or Homer Bailey?

Also who would you recommend dropping out of the bunch of Loney, Buck and Peralta.

Again, thanks for the insight, really appreciate all the help.



The guy I'm going with in these spots is Minor. I think his upside trumps all the other guys, who offer a more similar range of values (medium risk, medium upside). He racked up the Ks last year in the minors and his brief major league stint, but his major league ERA was inflated for mostly flukey reasons. I'd say it was high because of two parts bad luck and one part late-season fatigue. His peripherals were still excellent. He plays for a good team, in the pitcher friendlier league, in a pitcher friendly ballpark, and has top prospect pedigree. He's been one of my favorite late-round picks, and I'd even go so far as to say I think he's due for a better or at the very least comparable fantasy season to Zimmermann. Minor is less likely to be limited by innings and has a better track record in terms of Ks. His only weakness is that he's a fly-ball pitcher, but in Atlanta that's not a huge deal, the NL East (including Turner Field) features four safe pitcher's parks and just one fly ball pitcher's nightmare. Plus, especially in the NL, flyball/high K pitchers with average or better command tend to have the most WHIP upside since they're the most likely to give up fewer hits. The risk with Minor is he has to win a rotation spot first, but considering he's already on the 40-man and his service clock started last September, the Braves have little incentive to hold him back unless they intend to keep him down for at least a month and a half. He's the better pitcher than anyone else competing for the 5th spot and should win the job. And if he doesn't, then you can always move on to the next tier in which I would put Holland, Bailey, and Niese. Holland has the most risk of the three and most upside (he'd be a better buy if he didn't play for Texas, American League hitter's parks are tricky to predict), Niese the least of both, and Bailey somewhere in between.

Webb is also definitely interesting though. He might be my second choice simply because his upside trumps everyone else's. If he's healthy and effective you won't find that kind of upside on the wire later in the year.

I would also drop Frasor and pick up Frank Francisco. All indications are he'll have the first shot to finish games in Toronto.

Of the three hitters you list, the one I would drop first is Buck, and I'd pick up Minor, with the other three pitchers I named above as backup plans. There are comparable catchers who should be on the wire even if Buck gets grabbed and Mauer misses time, most of them I even like better (Iannetta and Arencibia come to mind, the former of which I really like a lot and think has a chance to be a Top 10 catcher) and guys who feature different strengths but should carry similar value (Thole, Y. Molina).

After that, its a bit of a coinflip. I'm not crazy about Loney (one category first baseman don't carry much value) or Peralta (no category juice at all but won't hurt you too bad as a SS), but I think if its a choice with this roster I'd stick with Peralta. Honestly, I'd probably drop all three and look to pick up Minor, Webb, and a different SS. In fact, you could also drop Scutaro and pick up another bench hitter, you don't need two backup SS, better to have someone you can play matchups with at Util who has some serious upside.

Check the wire to see if a higher upside SS is available. I agree with keeping a SS around to back up Aviles, but it should be someone with more boom potential than Peralta or Scutaro. There are a couple of speed specalists who I think could be helpful--Alcides Esocbar and Cliff Pennington, both of whom I consider sleepers. If that's the route you want to go I'd probably start with Escobar since he probably has greater upside and then if he has a rough start to the year swap him for Pennington. If power is more what you feel you need try J.J. Hardy or Yuniesky Betancort, though I'm more bearish on them than the speed guys. All things considered, the guy I would probably recommend is Jed Lowrie. He may not start the season playing every day or have mega upside in any single category, but there's a good chance he'll find his way to every day playing time quickly and should provide positive value in at least three or four categories. Once he's playing every day, he'll have a great shot to be a Top 10 SS from that point in the year on. If Yunel Escobar wasn't drafted, he's also an interesting bounceback sleeper type, and there's a good chance he runs more now that he's out of Atlanta too. I don't think he has quite as much upside as Lowrie, but he has more job certainty. I'd also take Reid Brignac over Peralta. I'm not super crazy about Briggy, but he's got some post-hype sleeper to him. And as a long shot, check if Tsuyoshi Nishioka slipped onto the wire. If he's there, that's the guy you want, at least to start the year. He could be a top 5 SS, or he could be the second coming of Kaz Matsui, its too soon to tell but the upside and fact that he has an everyday job make him appealing at such a thin position (which is also why its likely he was drafted).

If you do want to pick up a second hitter who you can mix into Util, it doesn't have to be first base, but its usually a good place to start as there's always lots of interesting wire fodder at the position. Take a look and see if any of the late rounders somehow fell onto the wire--Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, Luke Scott, even Freddie Freeman (though there are probably other guys on the wire I'd take ahead of Freeman, I think Loney is about his upside this year so I wouldn't drop Loney for him). If not, you're basically looking for someone with more upside than Adam LaRoche, and it really doesn't need to be a first baseman since you have Howard and LaRoche. The first thing I'd do is check to see if Dexter Fowler was drafted. He's right on the bubble, and I LOVE him as a sleeper this year. He has much more speed than his SB numbers have shown the last few years, but that's because he wasn't playing every day and hitting low in the Rockies lineup. He has an every day job now and should hit first or second. His average should be, well, average at worst, but his walk rate means he'll have lots of running opportunities. I could pretty realistically see .270-100-10-60-35 out of him. After that, the two straight first baseman I might consider are Justin Smoak and Brandon Belt. Belt will be a beast, he just may not get the chance till around Memorial Day, but he's a great add once he finds his way onto the big league club. I wouldn't be totally shocked if he's up in mid-April, kind of like Ike Davis was with the Mets last year. Smoak is interesting as a post-hype sleeper, but playing in Seattle hurts him. His upside is still huge though. Will Venable should be a nice power/speed outfielder but he could hurt you a bit in average. Dan Johnson is also interesting, he could be basically Carlos Pena with dual 1B,3B eligibility if the Rays let him play every day (I think they will), a guy who will hurt you in average but make up for it by hitting 35-40 HR. Mike Moustakas is basically the Brandon Belt of third base, except I think he has a bit less offensive upside immediately and the chances of him being up before late May are zero, so I would wait on him but keep tabs. Mike Morse is also interesting as a power hitting outfielder who probably won't kill you in any of the other categories either.

The top two thirds of your team are very solid, which is the foundation of building a winner. The back third is all about post-draft adjustments--no one sticks with the team they drafted through the entire year and wins. There are plenty of guys on the wire who could make the back end of your roster look fine going into the season. As long as you can stay active, make some good decisions, and catch a good break here and there, I like your chances.
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